The current state of the GOP presidential race [As at November 24,2015]

Ted Cruz is surging! Ben Carson is sinking! But all through this, Jeb Bush chugs along with his little five percent, the little engine that could (la máquina se puede). We need him to stay in the race. If Bush quits, all his support will go to Marco Rubio. They have a very similar base of support, not merely geographically, but ideologically. Both were big amnesty supporters for illegal aliens; the only difference is that Bush is still open about his continued support for it, while Marco doesn't dwell (and yet, Marco still, even today, quietly, wants to continue amnesty for "Dreamers").

With Marco at about 12% in the polls, if Jeb pulls out, it's a sure bet that Bush's 5% will go to Marco. That brings him up to 17%. What's worse, Christie and Kasich each have 3%. When they pull out, their combined 6% will probably migrate to Marco as well. That brings up the GOP establishment percentage to about 23%. In a very splintered primary electorate, that may be enough to win some primaries. (Though the 8% of Carly/Huckabee/Rand will probably migrate to Cruz or Trump...mostly).

That's why we need Jeb Bush to stay in the race.

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz is surging in Iowa, seemingly at the expense of Ben Carson, jumping to second place with 21%, if the latest poll (CBS/YouGov) is to be believed.

The leftist nerds at fivethirtyeight.com have come up with interesting statistics that show that, statistically speaking, nearly half of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't make up their minds until the week before they vote. Think about that.

The leftist nerds at fivethirtyeight.com have come up with interesting statistics that show that, statistically speaking, nearly half of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't make up their minds until the week before they vote. Think about that.

The fivethirtyeight.com website and the resident "genius" Nate Silver is no friend of FR or conservatives in general. They will be All In For Hillary in 2016. But I would be very careful ignoring opinions from that website. Nate Silver called every state correctly in the 2012 Presidential election and he is certinly no dummy.

If there is no candidate who has a majority of the delegates, the delegates of at least two of these four candidates will have to cooperate to nominate someone. So who will cooperate with whom? ... Trump may have a hard time getting delegates of other candidates to support him.

Or, deal maker that he is, he may be able to put together a coalition of support even from supporters of candidates he has attacked.

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