Oil Prices: The Bottom Isn’t In

Wall Street Journal ^ | Nov. 13, 2015 | SPENCER JAKAB

[thackney]

How...quaint. U.S. benchmark crude touched the $40 a barrel mark and much economic hand-wringing ensued with the Federal Reserve chief lamenting its effect on the "long-term path of the U.S. economy." Except the chief's name was Greenspan, not Yellen, and it was 11 and a half years ago.

Today oil prices threaten to push through that psychological barrier from above, not below. Despite having peaked more than 16 months ago some two-thirds higher than today, prices have yet to find a firm floor.

In fact, prices have staged a sudden reversal from what many investors had thought was a stable level: Crude has fallen 15% in just the past 10 days. Low prices should act as a sort of economic stimulus for importers and spur demand, but the opposite is happening in many emerging markets.

The latest blow was a double whammy of pronouncements from organizations literally on opposite sides of the market. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said excess inventory now exceeds what was seen in the first quarter of 2009, in the depths of a severe recession.

[thackney]

Chart and more at the link

[SeaHawkFan]

Idiot, it’s 1/3 the price of 16 months ago; or, you could say oil was three times the current price 16 months ago.

2/3 the price of 16 months ago woud have meant it was then about $26.67.

[SeaHawkFan]

Scratch that second sentence.

Should have been $40 x 1.67 = $66.8.

[CincyRichieRich]

Here’s the rub...I like the low price at the pump but is for all the wrong reasons.

No one working in the U.S. and fewer vacations means less demand. If we were simply producing more oil and gas due to pro-cheap energy policy that would be great (aka, drill baby drill)...also global economy slowdown means China demands less, too.

Cheap oil for all the wrong reasons...

0Obama loves it as it is for all the right reasons to him...and it hurts Texas, too.

[thackney]

Math is hard...

[spintreebob]

With uncertainties of global warming, half of EU following Greece to the Greece trap, the other half of EU using welfare to bribe terrorists to be nice, the leader of the world leading from behind, regulations like Keystone that actually increase global warming gas..

with all of that, what’s a job creator to do?

[thackney]

No one working in the U.S. and fewer vacations means less demand.

Actually, US gasoline demand is up, not down. It has been climbing for a few year. And global demand for oil is still rising. It is rising slower, but it has not fallen.

The price drop came from production rising faster than demand, not from falling demand.

[TalBlack]

Geez, if 40 ain’t the bottom...To be honest I kinda’ thought it was.

[PAR35]

The market’s been manipulated to hold the price around $45 a barrel for benchmark for quite some time now. Sometimes it edges up to $50, sometimes it creeps down to about $40, but then the adjustments are made and it moves back toward the target. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks.

[backwoods-engineer]

Hey Spencer: if you're going to write financial stories, you might want to study up on the concept of government-forced inflation.

$40 was $31.76 eleven years ago, moron.

(Moron directed at WSJ author, not the FR OP.)

[backwoods-engineer]

And by the way, gas is cheaper now than anytime since I started driving (legally) in 1983.

[thackney]

I have just a couple more years of legally driving on the road, but I have certainly seen several years of cheaper gasoline.

Dec 2008 most recently.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=M

[Company Man]

The same exact pattern can be seen at the pump in my area, now. You can tell 1.99/gallon gas is the current target price, and has been for a while now. It drifts up and down just as you described, but every so often it “corrects” back to 1.99

[backwoods-engineer]

That’s nationwide, right? Gas was never that cheap where I was living at the time. In the state I’m living in now, gas taxes are much cheaper .

[SunkenCiv]

Despite having peaked more than 16 months ago some two-thirds higher than today, prices have yet to find a firm floor. In fact, prices have staged a sudden reversal from what many investors had thought was a stable level: Crude has fallen 15% in just the past 10 days.

And now, to destroy the US economy for good, the Demagogic Party wants to impose a one-size-fits-all $15 minimum wage in the face of soon-to-be-falling prices.

[Blue Highway]

How do you figure gas is cheaper now than in 1983? It was on average $1.24 in 1983. I don’t see ANYTHING near that low price today. Here in Florida even regular gas is hovering over $2.00 a gallon. My recent purchase a few days ago was $2.07

[backwoods-engineer]

Inflation.

$1.24 in 1983 is $2.96 now. Unless you live in New Jersey or Hawaii, your gas is probably nowhere near that price.

[backwoods-engineer]

$2.07 in 2015 was 87 cents in 1983.

[luvbach1]

I remember gas for 21.9 cents/gallon or less during price wars in mid ‘50s.

[familyop]

I've seen gas much lower. Don't remember how low at the lowest, but I do remember buying it for about 23 cents a gallon. ...in '73, if I remember correctly, not long before it was marked up to 49 cents in one night. Bought it for a few cents less as a kid (for lawn mowers, boats, karts and the like).

You recently wrote, "Pretty hard to find gasoline at any pump that isn't unleaded." Now, you know why I mentioned "regular unleaded." After doing so for some time, it continued to be a habit for most of us.