2016 Republican Presidential Nomination (Carson overtakes Trump in RCP daily average)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com ^ | November 4, 2015 | RealClearPolitics

[NKP_Vet]

With the addition of the Quinnipiac poll, Ben the Apostle has finally overtaken Trump in the daily averaging of polls. Now if Rasmussen, which has been around for years, and it indeed a telephone poll, is used, Trump is leading the Apostle Ben by 11 points. But since Real Unclear Politics refuses to use the 90% of polls that show Trump leading the Apostle Ben, we now have a "national frontrunner" for Bloody Megyn and the rest of the loudmouths to qawk about on every network until the next debate, when I would suspect the Apostle Ben will take center stage as the new slayer of Trump.

[NKP_Vet]

Put this one in Ripley's Believe It Or Not. Can anyone name me a position paper the Apostle Ben has put out?

[drypowder]

RealClearPolitics = establishment propaganda

[headstamp 2]

This is the media/establishment attempting to take out Trump for Carson. Then they’ll bury Carson and shove Rubio on us.

[Dana1960]

Better yet, how can one be leading nationally when he is either in second place, or tied for first (Iowa) in every state that has released a poll so far?

Math matters.

[BitWielder1]

The Media is seeking any candidate that can win the nomination but not the election.
As ¿Jeb? is getting weaker, they will promote anyone but Trump and Cruz.

[Catsrus]

I guess they are using Common Core math.

[traderrob6]

Carson’s subpar performances will slowly but surely erode his popularity over time .....that being said it will be humorus to watch the Trumpophiles go balistic over articles such as this.

[InterceptPoint]

RealClearPolitics = establishment propaganda
++++
What is a reliable and accurate alternative?

[drypowder]

you should search and decide that for yourself

[Personal Responsibility]

Googling “Ben Carson -poll” results in nothing but negative stories. Here are the links from the first few pages of results. You’ll notice a common theme - not a single positive news story. None. I didn’t pick and choose here - this is the first two pages of results.

http://www.salon.com/2015/11/02/5_worst_right_wing_moments_of_the_week_ben_carson_welcomes_the_apocalypse_partner/

https://www.rawstory.com/2015/11/brilliant-surgeon-ben-carson-says-creationism-helped-him-understand-the-human-body/

http://nypost.com/2015/10/30/the-ben-carson-secret-that-democrats-cant-bear-to-face/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/11/02/why-ben-carson-says-america-is-doing-a-horrible-job-helping-the-poor/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-raised-october_56367bc3e4b0c66bae5cc72b

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ben-carson-gop-front-runner-lists-debate-demands

https://www.rawstory.com/2015/11/richard-dawkins-hammers-ben-carson-he-is-ignorant-and-a-disgrace-as-a-doctor-for-promoting-creationism/

http://dailycaller.com/2015/11/01/van-jones-ben-carson-bewilders-most-black-democrats-video/

Someone PLEASE explain how coverage like this results in a NATIONAL poll bounce? A national poll bounce normally requires some significant good coverage, big speech, policy statement etc...Carson has NONE OF THAT, no big news stories, no 60 minutes interviews viewed by millions of people etc... but keeps rising in the polls. Remember, this is a NATIONAL poll. It takes a lot of positive coverage to move that needle.

It makes no sense. If reality is a guide, when things make no sense it’s because we are missing part of the picture.

Carsons rise hurts Trump. Hurting Trump is what the GOPe wants. Would YOU really out it past them to fix a few numbers? Round up here, down there, interpret poll answers in “creative”ways to get the outcome they want? Well, would you?

I don’t put it past them. Not at all.

[immadashell]

I wonder whether the GOPe enjoyed the results of yesterday's election? After they declared the Tea Party dead, Kentuckians elected a businessman and an African American to the top statewide political positions. What did they have in common? Both were Tea Party activists.😃

[Georgia Girl 2]

Hillary was right. There is a right wing conspiracy and its the the GOPe again’st Trump. Almost every poll shows Trump in the lead with a significant percentage.

[NKP_Vet]

The latest poll Real Unclear Politics refuses to use.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_still_the_clear_leader_after_latest_debate

[erod]

Trump is a distant second choice for me, but I fail to see how Carson who bumbles and mumbles through debates and is holding a book tour instead of a presidential campaign is leading the pack.

[Signalman]

Carson woulnd’t stand a chance against the Hildabeast or the barrage frome the commie media. He’s not a fighter. Trump and Cruz are fighters.

[BigEdLB]

Common Core. You got it. A yougov/economist, as well as Gravi have national polls RCBSP chose not to use though they use those folks for state polls. Therefore the National RCP is unreliable, because they are using the GOPe party line.

[BigEdLB]

Common Core. You got it. A yougov/economist, as well as Gravis have national polls RCBSP chose not to use though they use those folks for state polls. Therefore the National RCP is unreliable, because they are using the GOPe party line.

[InterceptPoint]

you should search and decide that for yourself
++++
I did.

Real Clear Politics is by far the best source we have. They are simply setting some basic requirements for sample size and such, selecting the most recent polls and averaging them.

If there is a better methodology than that then let us know. I don’t believe there is.

[BigEdLB]

So, why didn’t try use the YouGov poll national when it appears to meet their standard?

[BigEdLB]

‘let us know’. Do you work for RCP?