Posted on 10/22/2015 9:34:10 PM PDT by nickcarraway
IN 1953, taking cues from their Soviet advisers, Chinese leaders launched their first five-year plan. They charted a course for rapid industrialisation of the then-agrarian country. Now they are drafting their 13th such document. It will show how much has changed. Its main message will be that industrialisation has run its course and that China will have to find a new engine of growth. But the very existence of the plan (to run from 2016 to 2020) is indicative of how, in economic policymaking, much has stayed the same.
China will publish the first outline after an annual meeting of the Communist Partys Central Committee at the end of October. It will be very different from the partys early plans. It once set specific production targets for steel and grain, among other thingshallmarks of the central planning that led China so astray. Since the early 1980s, the role of the plans has been relaxed. They clarify medium-term policy priorities, but are not blueprints that must be adhered to slavishly.
Yet the plans are still important, not least because of the attention they receive. They are large neon signs of where the party wants to take the country, says Scott Kennedy of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington. Local officials scurry to adjust their rhetoric and policies to fall in line with the plan. Banks direct capital to the industries the plan seeks to boost. Companies, both state-owned and private, alter their business models accordingly.
In recent years, the plans have come to encompass a wider range of priorities. Almost all the binding targets in the current one relate to the environment or social welfare. Officials were obliged to build 36m units of public housing, limit energy use and expand primary-school enrolmentall of which they accomplished, albeit sometimes by fiddling the numbers. Purely economic targets such as income growth and job creation were considered predictive, not mandatory.
For all that, the most-watched part of the new plan will still be its target for GDP. The current one aims for average annual growth of 7% from 2011 to 2015. In reality, it is likely to be about 7.8%. In the past, targets were often set well below the potential growth rate. That could change with the new plan. State media have suggested the new target will be 6.5%, beyond what many forecast for the coming years.
This could have big implications for economic policy. The farther growth slips below target, the more the government will be under pressure to stimulate the economy or, failing that, to doctor data. Given Chinas already-heavy debt burden (see article) and analysts abiding cynicism about official statistics, neither outcome would be welcome. Some economists have called on China to abandon its growth target altogether, to give itself more breathing space. But Kuang Xianming of the China Institute for Reform and Development, a think-tank, says the GDP figure will remain in the plan, because it serves as a lodestar for all other economic policies.
There will be plenty of other targets to aim for. Just over 70m people still live under the official poverty line; the plan is likely to include a pledge to expand welfare payments to lift them all above it. The government has already started to relax its one-child policy; some believe the aim in the next five years will be to abolish it altogether. There will probably be objectives for reductions in carbon emissions, investment in high-tech industries and the building of megacities. Full details will not be released until March, when Chinas parliament approves the plan.
Perhaps the most intriguing element is one that will remain unmentioned by state media: the historic milestone of the new document. Such plans are one of Chinas cherished inheritances from the Soviets. But the Soviet Union collapsed before it was able to see its 13th one to completion. Beating the Soviets may provide Chinas party with a bigger-than-usual incentive for the rest of the decade.
"This president can be a transformative leader (he has that potential in my view), but only if he embraces and fights for a transformative agenda."--Sam Webb, Chairman Communist Party USA
Obama State of the Union: He got the ball rolling:
http://cpusa.org/obama-state-of-the-union-he-got-the-ball-rolling
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"Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek"-- BARACK OBAMA
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"Barack Obama told supporters that
'change has come to America' as he
claimed victory in a historic presidential election."
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/election.president/index.html
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A Landslide Mandate For Change
A breakthrough election
Congratulations on an extraordinary history making election!
(snip)
The tears of joy we all shared as crowds gathered to watch the election results here and throughout the world dramatize the new moment we are in.
http://cpusa.org/a-landslide-mandate-for-change-report-to-the-national-committee-meeting-11-15-08/
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July 1, 2009...
Change is Here, Change is Coming
--Sam Webb, National Chair, Communist Party, USA
http://cpusa.org/change-is-here-change-is-coming/
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Jan 29, 2010:
Obama State of the Union: He got the ball rolling
http://cpusa.org/obama-state-of-the-union-he-got-the-ball-rolling
From the Sino-Russian Joint Statement of April 23, 1997:
"The two sides [China and Russia] shall, in the spirit of partnership, strive to promote the multipolarization of the world and the establishment of a new international order."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HI29Ag01.html
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"Joint war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty signed in 2001, and reflect the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two Eastern Hemisphere giants."
http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2005/09/war-games-russia-china-grow-alliance
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,170287,00.html
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Sept 11, 2014
China and Russia to build major seaport: report
China and Russia will build one of the largest ports in north-east Asia on Russias Sea of Japan coast, reports say, in a further sign of the powerhouses growing alliance.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-11/china-and-russia-to-build-major-seaport-report/5738036
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Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"
CBS News ^ | January 19, 2011 | Stephanie Condon
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Meanwhile, OUR Communist party is desperately trying to keep its standard-bearer from going to prison over Benghazi! sarcasm;)
Insanity.
The premier loves surprises!
“The government has already started to relax its one-child policy; some believe the aim in the next five years will be to abolish it altogether.”
Praise the LORD God Almighty!
Not supporting Donald Trump.
The commie left doesn't really give a crap about Islam. They only side with them because both hate America and want to destroy it.
I remember the good ol’ days when CPUSA was outlawed in the US. After all their stated goal is to overthrow our constitutional government and replace it with a Communist Government - Stalin style.
"'The Black Book of Communism,'; a scholarly accounting of communisms crimes, counts about 94 million murdered by the supposed champions of the common man (20 million for the Soviets alone), and some say that number is too low."
Forgetting the Evils of Communism: The amnesia bites a little deeper
By Jonah Goldberg, August 2008:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100711090651/http://article.nationalreview.com/365528/forgetting-the-evils-of-communism/jonah-goldberg
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"the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century" -Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the collapse of the Soviet Union...
"World democratic opinion has yet to realize the alarming implications of President Vladimir Putin's State of the Union speech on April 25, 2005, in which he said that the collapse of the Soviet Union represented the 'greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.'..."
"The more I see and read about Mr. Putin, in power since 1999, and his 'managed democracy,' the more apprehensive I become about the future of Russia and the safety of its neighbors.
If Putin believes that the dissolution of the Soviet Union into 15 independent states represents the 'greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,' then it follows that Putin might well believe he should do something to repair the loss..."
http://web.archive.org/web/20090415000000*/http://www.hooverdigest.org/053/beichman.html
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The demise of the Soviet Union was the 'greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century', Putin said in 2005.
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11102.30640.0.0/asia/moscow-puts-the-soviet-squeeze-on-neighbor-nations
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"Putin said Stalin deserves statues in his honor "
Actually, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Since I have no intention of voting for Trump even once, let alone several times, it is not insanity on my part.
You sound like Vaas Montenegro. (not safe for work)
Since I have no intention of voting for Trump even once
That's insane.
And communist.
Actually, it’s Einstein. ;)
I prefer Vaas.
“Vaas is more of a psycho.”
Do you habitually prefer psychos? Should I assume Trump is one as well? ;)
I prefer psychos in my games and heros in my leadership positions.
Vaas is the perfect Hispanic villain.
TOTALLY psycho. He’s awesome.
Trump is the perfect Populist leader.
TOTALLY anti-establishment. He’s awesome.
“TOTALLY anti-establishment. Hes awesome.”
We shall see.
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