The current buildup at Tartus and Latakia is nothing new: since Hafez al-Assad’s rise to power in 1970, the Former Soviet Union and then Russia was and is a stalwart ally, long attempting to position Syria as a counterbalance to American and Israeli military superiority in the Middle East.
Russia’s actions are also a message to the world: unlike the US, which abandoned long-time ally Hosni Mubarak during his time of need in Egypt, Russia is prepared to intervene, militarily if necessary, to preserve a friendly regime in danger. Therefore, it pays for autocrats to court Moscow, especially if they possess valuable resources or are in prime strategic locations.
While Vladimir Putin ostensibly espouses the acceptable goal of a global alliance against IS, the strategic context is that he has entered into a sectarian alliance with Shia Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the proxy army Hezbollah (The P4+1) against the American-backed Sunni alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE, all of whom insist that Assad has no future in Syria.
Through its airstrikes, Russia continues to advance the prior Syrian strategy of focusing efforts against pro-Western rebels, with the recognition that, while dangerous, the Islamic State is the one party in the conflict the West will never support.
The Islamic State will take advantage of both the respite, and the propaganda value of being the recognized number one enemy of the infidel coalition, which it uses to rally supporters simply by pointing out that its enemies are gathering to destroy the renewed Caliphate.
The one strategic motivation for Russia that has been widely ignored is the economic one. Qatar, the richest country in the world per capita and also owner of the world’s largest natural gas field, proposed in 2009 to jointly construct a gas pipeline running through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and into Europe. Assad, not wanting to provoke Moscow, refused to sign on. Instead, he floated an alternative: an Iran-Iraq-Syria and possibly Lebanon pipeline, to then follow under the Mediterranean to Europe. The Qatar-Turkey pipeline would run through majority Sunni countries with the exception of Syria’s Alawite regime. Assad’s counter proposal follows the Shia crescent.
Russia, not wanting to lose its primary market in Europe, is adamantly opposed to a prospective Qatari project. A military presence in Syria will guarantee that even if Assad is removed from power, the pipeline will not be built. It will look on favorably to the Iranian proposal, provided Gazprom and other state-owned companies get their share of the pie.
Pipeline politics in the region have a long and varied history of Russian involvement. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was built only after Moscow’s demand for an alternative pipeline for Azeri oil to Russia was met. During the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, US intelligence officials determined that an explosion on the pipeline near the Turkish-Georgian border was carried out via Russian government cyber warfare. Days after the explosion, Russian fighter jets bombed positions in Georgia close to the pipeline. Although the BTC pipeline was built precisely to avoid Russian interference, the Kremlin has never let that stop them.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have also begun construction on a joint natural gas pipeline, the TANAP. This project’s stated goal is to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas, a prospect that cannot please Moscow. Both the BTC and TANAP bypass Armenia, a Russian ally and wary of its neighbors in the Caucasus.
As the endpoint for the Qatari project, Turkey is adamant in calling for Assad to step down or be removed, which dovetails with the proposed Sunni pipeline. By clearing the way through Syria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia can receive a handsome return on their investment in backing jihadis fighting Assad. On the other hand, Iran will not sit idly by and leave potential billions of dollars in the hands of its ideological and regional enemies.
Russian intervention in Syria is just beginning. There is every possibility that it will expand as more targets are found, perhaps those that are in the way of the proposed Iranian pipeline, directly threatening Damascus and by extension, the Russian monopoly of gas exports to Europe. For the time being, Putin has the world’s attention.
Russia is eliminating islamo scum. Right now that is all that matters.
After the islam trash is long gone, we’ll work out the sane details.
It may be that Putin is only interested in propping up Assad and pipelines. He is smart and bold and greedy. I would give him no reason to think he can do anything beyond Syria.
I don’t think that it’s good for us if he takes the Saudi oil or shuts down their ability to pump it.
One thing I know for certain, I don’t have any faith in Obama’s abilities to handle this.
Yep, it’s about pipelines, and whose will reach Europe.
The trouble is that the Sunnis are backing ISIS to get it accomplished, and Obuma signed on. Now we’re in the impossible position of either backing ISIS, or letting Putin have his way. Checkmate.
We need a smarter President.
Russia is killing off some islamonazi scum, including those terrorist gangs sponsored and financed by The current USA regime. The longer- term price of this will include continued and probably greater Russian control over energy supplies to Europe. This is Russia’s great neutralizer (at least defensively, and turn some?) of the activities Russia sees as threatening or at least expansionist from Germany ( with Soros and thus Obama aide and abetting). World war 2 continues in at least these ways. Following the money ( or energy supply routes- and control over the supplies that feed them) does indeed explain much. If Putin continues to save or help The Syrian government protect some Chrietians from islamonazi myrder and torture it’s fine with him, but we should still keep an eye on those larger energy matters to more completely understand what’s happening
bkmk