Posted on 09/26/2015 6:15:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Earlier today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the third and final estimate of GDP growth for the 2nd quarter, and on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, real GDP grew by 3.9% in the past quarter. From the BEA release:
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.7 percent. With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more
than previously estimated.The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Real GDP increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6 percent in the first. The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in private inventory investment and in federal government spending.
Real final sales of domestic product increased at an annualized 3.7% rate, compared to 3.5% in the second estimate. Personal consumption expenditures increased at an annualized 3.6% rate versus 3.1% in the second estimate.
The personal purchase of goods contributed +1.20 percentage points to the change in real GDP, the highest contribution since the 2nd quarter of 2014, and the 3rd-highest quarterly contribution over the past 4 years. On the services portion of PCE, which contributed +1.23 percentage points to the change in real GDP, spending on health care contributed +0.34 percentage points, and spending on food services and accommodations contributed +0.31 percentage points. The latter is the highest contribution to GDP change from spending on food services and accommodations since the 4th quarter of 1999.
Gross private domestic investment contributed another +0.85 percentage points to GDP change, with fixed nonresidential investment contributing +0.53 percentage points and fixed residential investment contributing +0.30 percentage points. Net trade contributed +0.18 percentage points, which means the net worth of exports was greater than the net worth of imports. Government spending contributed the last +0.46 percentage points to GDP change, with all of that coming at the state and local levels, as most states completed their fiscal years. Despite the claims in the report, the “deceleration” in federal government spending meant that it merely grew at the rate of inflation, as it contributed 0.00 percentage points to real GDP change.
The news for the 3rd quarter is not nearly as rosy. August durable goods orders were weak, the September University of Michigan Consumer Index unexpectedly dipped below 90, and the September manufacturing indexes from both the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and Richmond Federal Reserve were unexpectedly in negative territory. The current consensus is for 2.5% GDP growth in the third quarter, but Moody’s high-frequency model projects 1.8% growth and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model projects 1.4% growth. They may well all be high, as the “double seasonal adjustment” which was introduced 2 months ago affected the 3rd-quarter estimates between 2011 and 2014 quite negatively.
Bullshit!
Exactly.
Soon to be revised to 1.0% late on a Friday night.
You bring great dishonor on both bulls and sh!t. This is the foulest of garbage and it gets fobbed off on the American people every month, every quarter, by changing the arithmetic each time, adding in a “finagle factor” to make the answers come out exactly right for public consumption.
Behind the scenes, they know EXACTLY how bad it is. Not since the depths of the Great Depression have the real numbers been so bad. This stopped being a recession LONG ago, it has been a full-blown depression running on fumes and hype since about 2010.
More phone ass numbers!!!
phone = phony
No, this is the final revision. This was a rebound from a weak (-0.2%) first quarter that was held back by harsher than average winter weather. No one is seeing a full-year rate anywhere close to this level and if you average Q1 and Q2, you get a reasonable 1.8% or so.
Golly. I never knew that trade indicaters such as Baltic Dry Index were inversely related to GDP growth.
Well, if QE4 won’t work, maybe boldfaced lies will.
“Double seasonal adjustment which was introduced two months ago”???? Baawwaashhh
A pantload is born.
I remember analyzing Soviet economic reports a few decades ago. The reports had no connection to actual production, and I gave up on trying to draw logical conclusions about reality from fiction. I settled for drawing psychological conclusions about what Soviet bureaucrats wanted their leaders to read. Those days are back, and it’s worse than ever. I trust Obama and his anti-American minions even less than I trusted the Russians.
Bill Clinton is the original pantload. Remember in 1992 when the pantload and his lovely wife were running against George Bush. they said that the economy was the worst it had been since the Great Depression. The press dutifully reported this on demand daily. You never hear any of this talk regarding the Obama - Biden - Hillary economy from the mainstreamers.
You are wrong.
Oh, your numbers may be OK, but in reality this is battlespace preparation for 2016 elections. The 'RATs are going to tell us they led us out of the great recession and back to prosperity. The truth is that they have increased transfer payments to low-information voters who have seen their lifestyle increase, while working families have seen inflation gradually take their standard of living away.
What you say may be true, but my statements about the numbers are factual.
With almost 4% growth in GDP, low unemployment, and record level stock market indexes, why didn’t the Federal Reserve raise the interest rates? They might know something their not disclosing?
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