Posted on 09/24/2015 3:58:36 AM PDT by expat_panama
The most important driver of stock prices is earnings.
"Earnings hold the key," Barclays' Ian Scott writes.
"The key to the outlook for global equities is earnings, with global valuations in line with historical averages, a supportive monetary policy backdrop, and very bearish sentiment, a major hit to [earnings per share] is the main risk for the market," Scott argued in a new note to clients.
In the US, corporate earnings growth has been slowing for months.
"It's amazing how forgiving the general commentary has been on profits and even the broad economy," Deutsche Bank's David Bianco said in an email to Business Insider.
"Many seem to celebrate the absence of a recession. The labor market continues to tighten ... but other than some bright spots like auto and housing, growth is extremely weak with underlying drivers like productivity and investment disturbingly poor and S&P profits are not growing."
Not only are earnings in the US not growing, but by many estimates, earnings are actually contracting.
[snip]
This is particularly concerning as the Federal Reserve appears to be on the brink of hiking interest rates, which could put further pressure on profits.
"Higher rates are always an incremental negative for the stock market," veteran market strategist Richard Bernstein wrote. "The probability of a bear market increases when the Fed increases rates faster than the improvement in earnings growth."
Bernstein added:
The Fed now risks being wrong footed, and the problem for the stock market today is the Fed is "threatening" to raise interest rates at a time when S&P 500 earnings growth is actually negative ... We've been concerned for many months that the recipe for the much- anticipated correction could be the Fed hiking rates when earnings growth was negative.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
S&P 500
1,913.00 -15.50 -0.81%
DJIA
16,035.00 -152.00 -0.95%
NASDAQ 100
4,221.25 -41.50 -0.98%
What an F’ing lie, the most important driver of stock prices is QE. The Fed loaning money interest free to banks who in turn buy stocks which drive up prices. Then as we watched a few weeks ago a selloff. Then the banksters start all over again.
You know the economic history of Japan. Central planning always fails. Let the marketplace rule.
Spot on. Starve the beast of it’s power and money. It’s the only way.
People have always been apathetic.
In the right fiscal environment, ZIRP would have been adrenaline, in this case it’s become morphine. But that’s the fault of Democrats and their enablers. Our fiscal policy is the worst it has been since Carter.
And I don’t like ZIRP or the FED. Twelve Americans shouldn’t decide monetary policy for the rest of us 300 million. Let the marketplace do that.
“It’s the lure of easy money”
People want easy money.
Mid-America has been borrowing money at low interest rates and then investing in the stock market.
The Fed’s ZIRP is covering for Obama and the Dems: http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/09/21/low-interest-rates-mask-the-effects-of-job-killing-policies/
Whether it’s the economy, the Middle East or race relations 0bama and Jarrett’s aim is the same:
Leave them for the next president to deal with. All will be in shambles but the ruin will be masked with a fresh coat of paint that will wash off in the first 2017 rainstorm of trouble.
“All will be in shambles but the ruin will be masked with a fresh coat of paint that will wash off in the first 2017 rainstorm of trouble.”
Agreed! And it happens EVERY DAMN TIME! Grrrrr!
There is no way in heck I would want to be President after this nightmare, and I seriously doubt that ANY of the current crop of GOPe ENABLERS are going to change a thing.
It’s every woman for herself these days. More so now than EVER.
Fing lie, the most important driver of stock prices is QE.
Loopy lefties like to say that, but ofcourse while they say it they only believe it enough when it comes to spending other peoples (tax) money. When it comes to their own money they know full well that with QE stocks can go up, down, or stay the same. I mean, last week when the fed kept rates the same you what --bought into anything?
Not saying you're a liar though. You may be merely stupid mistaken.
Agree. I think I saw where you said y'all are retiring to a farm soon, so I'm guessing you've been watching these things as long as I have. And it usually goes that way, mostly because the MSM always adopts the line of Dimocrats "fixing" things and conservatives f'ing them up when it's actually the other way round.
So if an R is sworn in Jan 2017, the economy will immediately be seen as bad, interest rates will go up, the jobs are bad, the pay is bad, the Middle East is now a big problem and ISIS has to be dealt with, Putin, too....and it's all the fault of the the Republican Congress and new president.
And just after 0bama had things all fixed, too!....That's what they'll say.
From my chair it looks like stock earnings during this time really do not justify their high valuations as suggested by the equity indexes.
Btw, Yellin is still saying she anticipates an IR bump this year. anticipates.... hmmm
Exactly.
--and I am grateful for his raising the point. Still, while most folks on these threads say the same thing, every time I look at TARP and stock prices--
--what I see is that stocks tanked when TARP came on line and they recoverd as TARP was wound down. I mean, who are we to believe, everyone on the FR or our own lying eyes?
Your chart is misleading, I didn’t say TARP, QE has been a lot more then just the money in TARP, you and I both know this.
The FED has pumped trillions into the markets via QE.
No, I didn’t buy in to anything, I am out of the market.
QE gives money to the banks, the banks in turn purchase stocks and commodities thereby moving prices up, as long as the QE money is flowing the prices stay inflated. Once in a while they have a selloff to reset the prices and lock in profits.
But my guess is you know this. A famous man once said, “ if the truth is on your side argue the truth, if the law is on your side argue the law, If neither is on your side yell, pound on the table and call them names.”
So by calling me names we see where you are in this discussion.
Made sense and I was willing to think so, but now it looks like we're in guilty of name calling Cit. ;) Don't get me wrong as I realize that this is a passionate issue so it is good we got into it and rechecked the record.
I think the stock pirate is saying the stock prices were driven up unnaturally by TARP,
Made sense and I was willing to think so, but now it looks like we’re in guilty of name calling Cit. ;) Don’t get me wrong as I realize that this is a passionate issue so it is good we got into it and rechecked the record.
No it wasn’t TARP as I pointed out, it’s the Fed printing money and loaning it to the banks at zero interest. It’s referred to as QE which is different than TARP.
Again nice try, slight of hand by referring yet again to TARP, but your reference to TARP is wrong, I did not say TARP
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