Europe's aging economies stand to gain from influx of people

Myway ^ | Sep 19, 3:29 AM (ET) | JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG and BERNARD CONDON

[nathanbedford]

BRUSSELS (AP) — The greatest influx of people into Europe in decades is not just a humanitarian emergency, but also a potential stroke of luck for many countries facing the economic threat of an aging population. A plunge in birth rates means there will be a dearth of European workers in coming years to support the growing number of retirees. So the arrival of thousands of young — and often well-educated — potential workers stands to boost the long-term economic prospects of the region.

................ However, refugees, if well integrated, ultimately have a positive impact on the economy, Dumont said. One Australian study found that within 15 years, humanitarian migrants contribute more to their new country of residence than they cost it in benefits.

[nathanbedford]

For years I have been waging a frequently lonely battle here against the idea of population growth as a booster of wealth. To argue that there is a correlation between overpopulation and loss of liberty is simply not an argument that easily gains traction.

Recently, with the spotlight placed on unrestrained illegal immigration across the Mexican border, many conservatives have come to the understanding that illiterate, non-English-speaking, uneducated immigrants are but a drain on the economy.To solve the Social Security demographics with illiterate refugees is to resort to a Ponzi scheme to solve the problem of a Ponzi scheme. The crisis in Europe has refined the problem to include the added danger of Muslim terrorists coming through with the unfiltered masses. Further, conservatives are now very aware that Muslims do not easily integrate into society and more often than not it is society that must conform to Muslim culture.

Nevertheless, there exists a residue of opinion to the effect that programs like Social Security can be saved by an influx of younger refugees. Mercedes-Benz executives in this article tell us that they will provide a ready market for their products. Both of these assertions are false and will lead not only to economic pain in the long run as well is the short run and will compromise our democracy to the point of pushing us into tyranny.

The article asserts:

A plunge in birth rates means there will be a dearth of European workers in coming years to support the growing number of retirees.

That is the wrong issue taking us down the wrong path. The proper question is, will there be enough robots in coming years to support the growing number of retirees? And how will a welfare state manage to distribute the proceeds generated by robots and still maintain a civil and free society?

The fundamental reality is that the third great economic revolution, agricultural, industrial and now digital, is profoundly changing all the world's economies as thoroughly as did steam. Wealth will be increasingly generated by automated production and automated services. Much more will be created by fewer and fewer human hands. The problem will be to distribute the wealth generated by robots producing goods and services to a workforce which will not resemble today's 9-to-5/5 day a week culture.

With every revolution in technology there is an inevitable lag in the ability of workers to adjust to the new technology and to summon up the talent required to prosper in the new reality. This means training and education and those things are expensive. A refugee coming across the border who is barely familiar with a flush toilet, is not the best candidate to become a software engineer.

The challenge for conservatism is to stave off the tyranny which will inevitably come if the left with its traditional demagoguery is successful in demonizing those who produce wealth through automation. The tendency is to consolidate wealth in fewer and fewer hands because of the incredible capacity of automation to produce goods and because the expense in setting up an automated facility requires immense capital, which further concentrates wealth in limited hands. If we fear elitists control of our federal government today, the tendency will only become greater as the stakes get higher.

The left will use the temporary dislocations generated by new technologies to impose statist controls in order to redistribute wealth. Admitting refugees only makes their success more likely. With or without refugees, the challenge for conservatism is to somehow managed to keep the allocation of goods and services created in the new economy to remain based on a market system and not to be usurped by Marxists selling old slavery in a new vocabulary. We have seen enough of that in global warming, where the vocabulary not surprisingly has now adapted to "climate change."

One sees in this article all the rationalizations being summoned to create a society in which the only solution will be total state control.

[DAC21]

I doubt a majority of these muzsies will take to being subservient to infidels. Some will set up small businesses in the slums they will inevitably create. Overall they will be a net negative drag on the Euro socialist economies.

[Ethan Clive Osgoode]

Overall they will be a net negative drag on the Euro socialist economies.

Just think about the economies they left behind. That's enough to refute this stupid article.

[Netz]

Not a bad trade off. I let you in to Islamicize my country and you pay for my social security. Hmmmmm, short term thinking.
I let you in to terrorize my way of life, values, mores, civility, you add rape, crime and changing my laws and in return, you ensure that I do not LIVE to retirement age.

European logic: I let you in, you slice off my head and everybody wins.

That's more like it.

[nathanbedford]

The art of the deal brought to a whole new level.

[exnavy]

These are not refugees, this is an invading moslem army. The moslems intend to convert or kill the world.

[CommieCutter]

What I find funny is we constantly heard how these people weren’t ready for Democracy during the Iraq war. Now suddenly they are ready for assimilation since they’ve all invaded Europe and the U.S.

[Gaffer]

I guess the argument of population growth as a means to booster (or even sustain) wealth might be a marginally valid one if the “boost” was a homogeneous one, one whose new influx of residents were the type predisposed to assimilate and work - produce its part of the GDP.

With Europe so far, this has not been the case. In many cases, it has become a drain on entitlement and public resources and a scourge to the populations surrounding their enclaves (Britain, Sweden, France, et al).

As it functionally is, it is a very bad trade.

[Gaffer]

Assimilate to them means “gibsmedat.”

[Mr. Blond]

Those “refugees” aren’t seeking work. They’re seeking benefits.

[Eurotwit]

Nathan, you are so right, and such an asset to this forum.

[Eurotwit]

Nathan, you are so right, and such an asset to this forum.

[BobL]

“The proper question is, will there be enough robots in coming years to support the growing number of retirees? And how will a welfare state manage to distribute the proceeds generated by robots and still maintain a civil and free society?”

We’ll get that answer sooner, rather than later, as Japan is dealing with the same (or worse) demographic death spiral, but WILL NOT allow their society to be taken over by outsiders. Thus market forces in Japan are in the process of creating the robots that you mention.

It will be interesting, and a bit scary, to watch - but then not nearly as frightening as what Europe is in the process of becoming.

[nathanbedford]

As far as I'm concerned, you can say that as many times as you wish. :-)

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Sounds like “In order to save Europe, we have to destroy Europe.” Wonderful. I highly recommend Steyn’s excellent book on this problem: “America, Alone.”

[SpaceBar]

Eventually push will come to shove, and the invaders will come to learn that Europe was built on a mountain of corpses, with one of the bloodiest legacies on the planet.

[Jimmy Valentine]

The author is huffing glue. Two words “workers” and “well integrated” do not apply to the Muslim hordes swarming across Europe

[BobL]

If Europe wanted young bodies to repopulate their countries with, there are close to a BILLION on this side of the planet that would go there on a 5 minute notice, WITHOUT bringing Jihad with them. There are probably just as many in India and Southeast Asia that would also do the same, again without the Jihad baggage. Charter some Carnival Cruise Line ships and it won’t even cost much (relatively speaking) to get them there.

So, EVERYONE, ask yourselves - why are European leaders demanding hard-core, battle-hardened, terrorists to repopulate their countries with?

Only one answer - the leaders of those countries, especially at the EU level want them DESTROYED as cohesive societies. It’s a SUICIDE WISH. Anyone familiar with Star Trek will never forget Dr. Richard Daystrom, who invented a computer with artificial intelligence that “went bad”, and rather than just shutting itself down, it felt the need to destroy the Enterprise (and her crew) along with itself.

That is the only answer that can make any sense, and matches perfectly with what people from Europe, of that generation, were saying to me back in college, when I was at ESU.

[mkmensinger]

The title should read: “Europe’s aging economies stand to gain from influx of peaceful, productive people”

[nathanbedford]

You are quite right to point to Japan.

History suggests that Japan has a very good chance of succeeding. They are a wonderfully resourceful people who have demonstrated a real ability to fashion a modern economy on an archipelago relatively bereft of basic commodities.

Equally important, they have not succumbed to the seductive voices which tell them that diversity could be their strength. They have accomplished the remarkable results they have achieved while, and perhaps because, they have held fast to a homogeneous culture.

This idea that diversity is strength might not sell very well today to those poor people who have suffered so much in the century since the fall of the Habsburg Empire and who today are at the front line in the mass migration crisis. Indeed, it is hard to conceive of a single nation or Empire which is prospered because of diversity, and that might well be shown to include America.