Posted on 07/17/2015 11:06:21 AM PDT by Kaslin
I could have written a column about the reaction to a deal with Iran five months ago and I wouldn't have missed by much:
Republicans are furious. Democrats are wary. The Obama Administration is taking, not a victory lap, but running a victory marathon.
Here's what I don't know about the Iran deal: Everything.
No one who raced to get in front of a camera on Tuesday had read the text of the agreement(s). And, because of the nature of these things, there are secret appendices and side agreements that we may never know.
So, it is quite likely that the people solemnly proclaiming their opposition, or carefully walking a fine line before whispering their support, don't know what is in there, either.
Let's take a look at some of the concepts.
First, will Iran cheat?
That supposes they haven't been cheating all the way through this thing. OF COURSE THEY'VE BEEN CHEATING. So, the real question is: Will they cheat more?
In order to cheat by buying whatever it takes to make an atomic bomb out of uranium rocks, someone has to be willing to sell it to them. Whether that's high speed centrifuges, or ball bearings, or Slinky toys …
… they have to buy them from somewhere. It's like a bribe. In order to take a bribe someone has to offer a bribe.
When the crack international investigating teams show up at Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport (code IKA for those who are booking their own tickets), they will be greeted with great ceremony and allowed to go anywhere they want except for the places the Iranian government does not want them to go.
We've seen this before. The teams do not generally have heavy artillery or air cover, so if the Army says "You can't go there," you don't. You file reports and publicly complain. The UN or whomever, will vigorously debate a resolution that will take 18 months to pass. And the next President of the United States will threaten to put the sanctions back in place.
Let's talk about those sanctions.
Iran has a lot of oil. What they do not have a lot of is refining capacity. The United States has a lot of refining capacity. If U.S. refiners start making money refining Iranian oil, how happy do you think they will be if the spigot gets turned off? Not too.
On the other hand, more Iranian oil makes prices drop. As I am writing this, Bloomberg quoted Brent Crude as selling for about $58 per barrel down from about $108 a year ago. Domestic oil (known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI) was selling at about $52 per barrel down from about $104 a year ago
Unless you are an international oil trader, you are more interested in what it takes to fill the tank of your car. According to AAA, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was about $2.78. A year ago it was $3.60.
All that to say: If you're advising the new President - either Joe Biden or George Pataki - are you going to recommend a policy that adds 80 cents per gallon to the average middle class working family your boss tried to hard to pretend he cared so much about?
Nope.
Similarly, the governments of France or Germany or Luxembourg are not selling stuff to Iranians. Companies that reside in those nations are selling stuff and for sanctions to be slapped back on means those companies will lose a potentially large market and with the EU economy not exactly roaring, European governments are likely to be as happy about renewing sanctions on Iran as you would be adding a buck a gallon to fill your car.
As I said. I could have written this column five months ago.
“Thanks for the nukes, we’ve still got your 4 prisoners - lol, and oh yeah Death to America”.
That is the Legacy of that arrogant pos of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
I am afraid we just opened Pandora’s box. The Saudis, Egypt , etc will buy a-bombs from Pakistan and /or India and all hell will break lose. Several European countries are already eying close cooperation with Russia and want to ensure Russia will take over as protectorate from the US, at the forefront is Germany where the majority of it’s citizens don’t trust us anymore.
This of course will destroy the Euro zone as well as Nato. sadly, I see a worldwide conflict of great proportions and we are very vulnerable because we decreased our military strength and continue eroding it. I just pray we will get over the next 18 months with this administration in power. Our Millenials will not fight, they will protest in the streets against America for bigger handouts while there is nothing to give anymore.
The Muslim at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. (piss be on him).
“I could have written a column about the reaction to a deal with Iran five months ago...”
No. Save it until the ‘Persians’ nuke the US and annihilate Israel. You won’t be waiting long.
Darn it! I shoulda voted for Romney /s
Do you seriously think Mitt Romney would have given Iran the nukes? *rme*
Those are Basiji. Not “Persians”. There may be Persian ancestry in some of them, but they aren’t part of Persian society.
Well Iran is the former Persia
Yes. There are a significant number of Persians- I’m not sure what percentage, or at least what percentage had/ has the courage to speak out, who make the distinction between ‘’we are Persians NOT Arabs’’ and are struggling to various degrees to win their freedom from the mullahs. They want a secular government.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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Crazy like a fox.
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