Posted on 07/14/2015 3:02:58 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
‘My sole focus is to run as a Republican,” Donald Trump told my Washington Examiner colleague Byron York last week, “because of the fact that I believe that this is the best way we can defeat the Democrats.” He went on, “Having a two-party race gives us a much better chance of beating Hillary and bringing our country back than having a third-party candidate.”
But when York asked if he would definitively rule out running as a third-party candidate, Trump said, “It’s not something I’m thinking about right now.” And as John Fund pointed out in National Review, it is something Trump has thought about in the past.
He made a feint at getting Ross Perot’s Reform-party nomination back in 1999. And while Trump recently called Clinton “the worst secretary of state in the history of our nation,” somehow overlooking James Buchanan’s feckless stint in the Polk administration, he also contributed to her Senate campaigns and has called her “a terrific woman.”
The fact is that Trump, as a national celebrity and a non-politician often at odds with both parties, has the capacity to launch an independent candidacy scoring double digits in polls, just as Perot did in 1992 and Colin Powell could have done in 1995.
That should scare not only Republicans but also Democrats. History tells us that third-party candidacies have reshuffled the political deck and disrupted seemingly stable political alignments in unanticipated ways.
Consider the Populist movement of the 1890s that came during a 25-year period when partisan competition was as close as today and divided government as much the norm, though with Republicans usually holding the presidency and Democrats usually with congressional majorities.
The Populists supported inflationary silver currency and aid to farmers, and the 1892 Populist nominee carried most electoral votes in the plains and mountain states (all admitted to the Union by Republicans).
As a national celebrity and a non-politician often at odds with both parties, Trump has the capacity to launch an independent candidacy scoring double digits in polls. In 1896, Democrats nominated the pro-silver, pro-farmer William Jennings Bryan, but in reaction the Northeast and industrial Midwest swung to the pro-gold-standard Republican William McKinley. Republicans won seven of the nine next presidential elections.
Half a century later, in 1948, Strom Thurmond’s States’ Rights Democratic candidacy destabilized the national Democratic party’s majority coalition. Thurmond’s 39 electoral votes didn’t defeat Harry Truman, but Thurmond helped to detach the South from its traditional Democratic allegiance. Democratic nominees carried all the Confederate states 17 times before 1948. None ever has again.
George Wallace’s third-party candidacy in 1968 advanced that process at the presidential level. But his 1964, 1972, and 1976 campaigns in the Democratic primaries provided a template for conservative Democrats to win congressional and state races in places that tilted Republican presidentially. That delayed Republicans’ capture of majorities in the U.S. House until 1994.
Ross Perot’s candidacy in 1992 came after Republicans won five of the six previous presidential elections, and after George W. Bush carried 40 states in 1988. But Perot’s spring campaign “de-partisanized the critique of Bush,” as deputy Democratic chairman Paul Tully told me at the time, in a way no Democrat, certainly not a little-known young governor of Arkansas, could have done.
But when Perot abruptly withdrew from the race, on the Wednesday of the Democratic National Convention, Bill Clinton’s standing in the polls rose 25 points in one day — surely a record that will never be beaten. Democrats won four of the next six presidential elections.
But their leftish policies, in Clinton’s first two years and Barack Obama’s two terms, have helped produce Republican majorities in nine of the next House elections and have resulted in the polarization of the electorate that so many pundits lament — and which is the last thing Perot promised.
What could be the consequences of a third-party Trump candidacy? Immediate speculation is that it would cost Republicans the votes of many conservatives disgruntled with the party’s officeholders and angry about immigration, trade, and Common Core. That’s certainly plausible.
But Trump might also siphon votes of non-college whites from Democrats in states where their support was high enough to produce Obama victories. Examples include Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. All voted 54 percent or less for Obama in 2012, and altogether they have 84 electoral votes.
The present close partisan balance and polarization will not last forever. And Donald Trump seems like just the kind of guy who could disrupt it — in ways no one now can anticipate.
— Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.
It should worry Karl Rove too.
He is not another Perot. That is for good dang sure..
“Consider the Populist movement of the 1890s that came during a 25-year period when partisan competition was as close as today and divided government as much the norm, though with Republicans usually holding the presidency and Democrats usually with congressional majorities.”
Sorry, in the age of the internet, electronic voting booths and billion dollar get out the vote efforts, this is a nice history lesson but means squat.
He was on last night with his silly little scribblings or charts with Sean O’HowNutty.. Looked like snake salesmen material.. Slick real slick.. Not!
RE: He is not another Perot. That is for good dang sure..
So, if Trump were to go third party, how many percent do you reckon he would get and mostly from which party?
Cruz - 2016!
Sometimes revolution(s) are a good thing.
How ‘populist’ of me.
Revolution begins in the heart.
Today’s Big Gubmaint has No Heart. It has a policy.
Instead of Transforminhg America.. We need to Implant a new Heart.
One that beats strong to the wisdom of our founding fathers and has helped us to survive the pretenders to greener pastures and looser leashes..
I don’t know.. I’d like to see him in a swimsuit first and then a gown. ;-)
With the tender state of the electorate these days.. Who knows?
He could pull 25-30% and finish well nationally.
Or not. :-)
I am starting to really enjoy all the hand-wringing by the GOP and their anti-Trump supporters.
LOLOLOL.
You are correct. Instead of being just a megalomaniac billionaire, he's also a Dem pretending to be a conservative while duping people fascinated by shiny objects.
HA!! Are. You. Serious?
Fire whatever fool wrote this article. The only thing the Dims would love more than Trump hanging in there til the end is him running third Party. Every single vote of his will come from the GOP Rino candidate.
Hope the author didn’t get paid for this nonsense.
I’m beyond caring. Here for you all’s smart comments.
If it’s Bush/Clinton I am NOT voting. Actually may vote D to crash and burn this wreck asap.
“Every single vote of his will come from the GOP Rino candidate.”
If it’s Hitlery v jebbush v Trump, I’m voting for Trump.
Dearest Oynx,
You should have heard him on Howie Carr today. He told the mayor Boston "You need to applogize to Mr Trump". after the mayor told him he couldn't build a hotel their because of his immigrant stance. He is skewering all those who are fubaring the country the E-GOP, Hillary, Rove, Kristol, Kruthammer, Sharpton to name a few. He has brought fun back to politics as he has all their panties in a wad and I am loving every minute of it, he is actually making me laugh. He is that little soccer hooligan (picture) telling the other team how he feels about them with a particular digit :-). Grab the popcorn it will continue to be fun!
“If it’s Hitlery v jebbush v Trump, I’m voting for Trump.”
I’m with you. I haven’t seen ANY REASON to vote for Jeb over Hillary, so why should I vote for him?
And like it or not, Republicans in Congress actually do better as an OPPOSITION party when the President is trying to screw the country, than when a Republican is trying to screw the country.
IOW,, nothing new.
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