Posted on 07/12/2015 2:48:24 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The biggest question hanging over Walker's presidential campaign is whether the political strategy that got him this far can work at the next level.
"I'm pro-life," Scott Walker said, looking directly into the camera. "But there's no doubt in my mind the decision of whether or not to end a pregnancy is an agonizing one. That's why I support legislation to increase safety and to provide more information for a woman considering her options. The bill leaves the final decision to a woman and her doctor."
That was last October, less than a month before Election Day, when the Wisconsin governor was locked in a tight reelection battle with Democrat Mary Burke. Her allies were attacking Walker for signing a bill that required women to undergo an ultrasound before having an abortion. He responded with this memorable 30-second ad, part of an ongoing effort to soften Walker's image in the eyes of on-the-fence voters. In deeply polarized Wisconsin, they would decide the race. Exit polling shows they broke to him: Walker beat Burke among independents by 11 points en route to winning a second term.
Walker will announce Monday that he's running for president. And dovetailing with the campaign launch will be a ceremony in which the governor signs into law a 20-week abortion ban that makes no exception for rape or incest. This hard-line stance on abortion, juxtaposed against the tone he struck on the issue last fall, provides a window into Walker's political style and helps explain how he got to this point.
The son of a conservative small-town minister who showed his son how to be "pastoral," Walker has mastered the art of governing in a manner that mobilizes the party faithful while campaigning in a way that doesn't scare off moderates, independents, and even some Democrats. This misdirection has been the source of much of Walker's political success.
"Even as he cut that abortion ad, there isn't a single pro-life voter in the state who suddenly thinks he's pro-choice," said Matt Batzel, executive director of American Majority, a conservative activist group. "They know he shares their views."
Batzel, who is based in Wisconsin and has had a front-row seat for Walker's biggest political battles, added: "He has legislated very conservatively. But when you look at his tone and how he wins elections, it's different. And that's a needle he's successfully been able to thread in Wisconsin."
This is the story of Walker's political rise. In a National Journal magazine profile last year, the governor's friends and foes alike remarked on his unique ability – demonstrated over the past two decades – to wrap a fierce ideological agenda in a neighborly, nonthreatening persona.
"He has an altar boy's appearance," said Bob Jauch, a longtime Democratic state senator who worked closely with Walker in the legislature. "But Darth Vader writes his policies."
But this is infinitely more difficult to do on the national stage. Presidential politics are often self-selecting, with candidates courting one constituency at the expense of another in order to at least gain a foothold. And Walker enters the race, then, one question hovers over his campaign: Can he continue to have it both ways?
That answer depends on how Walker navigates the challenge of Iowa. He's the clear frontrunner in the state, but its socially conservative electorate has no shortage of alternative options. If Walker refuses to adopt far-right positions he could quickly bleed support to someone like Ted Cruz, who has been telling his team for months that Walker is "renting our voters in Iowa." But if Walker remains determined not to be outflanked on the right, his appeal could diminish among moderate voters in New Hampshire and beyond.
Walker is already tipping his hand. In the six months since he gave a dazzling speech in Des Moines that rocketed him to the front of Iowa polls, Walker has shifted his tone – if not his position – on a number of issues to align himself with Iowa Republicans. Once a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, Walker now says he opposes "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. Once an opponent of federal ethanol mandates, Walker told an Iowa agricultural forum in March that he supports them. Once criticized by social conservative leaders for airing that moderate-sounding abortion ad and declaring the same-sex marriage fight "over" in Wisconsin, Walker now frames his presidential launch by signing a 20-week abortion ban and arguing for a constitutional amendment to let states define marriage.
Some of this explains why Craig Robinson, the former political director of the Iowa Republican Party, wrote on his popular blog TheIowaRepublican.com that "Walker is making Romney look like a model of consistency."
"I don't think he needed to make any of these calculated moves to appeal to Iowans," Robinson said, asked about that blog post. "They like him because of how he's perceived – that he got elected in a tough state, that he's reform-minded, that he followed through with reforms, outraged liberals and unions in his state, and stood his ground."
Robinson added: "Consistency matters in politics. … And this maneuvering on a number of issues sends red flags. I don't think it's risen to the level of where caucus-goers are talking about it. But it could be problematic where an opponent points out these changes -- when the ads start to run and the mail pieces start to hit."
Walker's team understands the risk of looking like a flip-flopper. And his allies acknowledge the danger in appealing to Iowans at the expense of the rest of the electorate.
But they also know if he doesn't deliver on expectations in Iowa – which meaning winning, period – the campaign may not last long enough for those other concerns to be relevant. That's why, according to Walker allies, he's going to pursue exactly the opposite strategy Romney used in 2012. Whereas Romney started in the middle and moved rightward throughout primary season, Walker is starting on the right and will shift toward the middle.
"You start in Iowa and lock up conservatives, because if you don't do that, none of the rest matters," said one longtime Walker adviser, who requested anonymity to discuss campaign strategy. "It's much easier to move from being a conservative to being a middle-of-the-road moderate later on."
The adviser added: "In Iowa, you see the beginnings of that. He's capturing that conservative wing first and foremost, and then moving from Iowa to the other states and bringing other voters into the fold."
The rationale for Walker's candidacy has always been his unique ability to bridge the Republican divide, appealing to both the conservative and moderate wings of the party while also presenting himself as the type of wholesome, aw-shucks everyman who appeals across party lines.
It worked in Wisconsin. But everything is more difficult, and more scrutinized, on the national stage. Can Scott Walker continue to have it both ways? We're about to find out.
“...That’s why I support legislation to increase safety and to provide more information for a woman considering her options.”
More government regulations on abortion providers as well as requiring the mother to get a ultrasound before killing her child?
Maybe he has figured out how it's done? I like that of all of the Republicans, including Cruse who I very much like, he has actually done something to stop, and change the course in some cases of government.
He has made a real difference, after Obama we will need to do a lot of rolling back of things. To make a long term permanent difference some very drastic things will need to be done and I believe Walker is more than capable and willing to do them. No one else in the field gives me that feeling. I'm looking for results not rhetoric.
Prefer a stronger stand but he hasn’t come off my short list behind Cruz, Cruz, and Cruz....
Tennessee this last election put restrictions on abortion clinics that would make them safer more sanitary, meet hospital codes and some stupid libtard judge put a halt to it. So we have to take it to court.
Then the idiots in Memphis want to dig up the graves of Gen Nathan Bedford Forrest and his Monument. The 2013 “Tennessee Heritage Protection Act” NO military memorials can be removed including those from the ‘War Between the States’ http://www.tn.gov/sos/acts/108/pub/pc0075.pdf
Plus they have to have family permission to move the graves or go to chancery court. Have know idea what the National Historical Registry requires, but the statue is on their registery.
Conflicted on this one.
Had Walker been a truly pro-life pol, he would never have been elected or re-elected. So should we take what we can get to protect the unborn, or hold out for ideological purity and save not a single life?
“You start in Iowa and lock up conservatives, because if you don’t do that, none of the rest matters,” said one longtime Walker adviser, who requested anonymity to discuss campaign strategy. “It’s much easier to move from being a conservative to being a middle-of-the-road moderate later on.”
This sums Walker up. A moderate nothing burger. He’s waited too long to announce and now Trump has sucked all the air out of the room and nobody will even notice.
Wait and see...
He might want to get ready to take some incoming on Sanctuary cites, also. Milwaukee, Racine and Dane County where Walker lives are all Sanctuaries.
Has he seen the light on immigration? He lives in a Sanctuary county.
A proven winner, with an effective campaign strategy.
Walker’s signing of the 20 week ban on abortion (the point at which the baby is acknowledged to feel pain) is perfectly in line with his pro-life/state’s rights stance.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
Wrong! Milwaukee is a Sanctuary CITY. Walker lives in Wauwatosa.
He lives in Dane County. The map has Dane County as a sanctuary county. In addition, Madison is listed as a sanctuary city along with Milwaukee and Racine.
He lives PART TIME in Dane County because that is where the Governor lives. There is a chasm between Dane County (Madison) politics and the State.
If Walker is not addressing the problem of Sanctuary cities and Counties in Wisconsin, why would we think he will do so nationally?
Walker generates all the excitement of a flea circus. In a general election with Shrillary he will lose in a landslide. I’m a republican and I can barely stand the thought of having to get in the car and go vote for him.
“Milwaukee, Racine and Dane County where Walker lives are all Sanctuaries”
Walker will never do anything except talk about immigration. He’s too busy saving the state from college professors. :-)
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