Posted on 05/08/2015 11:42:01 AM PDT by jimbo123
Nate Silver fared terribly in Thursday's UK election: In his pre-election forecast, he gave 278 seats to Conservatives and 267 to Labour. Shortly after midnight, he was forecasting 272 seats for Conservatives and 271 for Labour. But when the sun rose in London on Friday, Conservatives had an expected 329 seats, against Labour's 233.
The fault, Silver claimed, was with the polling: "It’s becoming increasingly clear that pre-election polls underestimated how well Conservatives would do and overestimated Labour’s result," the statistician guru wrote in the wee hours of the morning. (He also overestimated the Liberal Democrats' result by roughly 20 seats).
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Why inform a pollster what you intend to do, if it is contrary to what the media corporation says they want you to do?
The “polls” didn’t fail. They said EXACTLY what the pollsters manipulated them to say.
In the Modern Era, Media Polling is now designed to DRIVE the opinion of the Low-Info Voter to politically-approved Leftists, not to measure opinion.
Funny that the British BETTING POOLS got it completely correct, but the leftist-leaning Media polls were wildly off, isn’t it?
Sharp!
"Voters are becoming harder to contact, especially on landline telephones. Online polls have become commonplace, but some eschew probability sampling, historically the bedrock of polling methodology. And in the U.S., some pollsters have been caught withholding results when they differ from other surveys, “herding” toward a false consensus about a race instead of behaving independently."
“in the U.S., some pollsters have been caught withholding results when they differ from other surveys, “herding” toward a false consensus about a race instead of behaving independently.””
If polls show leftists in lead, publish.
If polls a tie, spin.
If the numbers show conservative lead, bury.
That’s called “Modern Polling Interpretation”
Yeah, that happens when your polls start with an agenda.
Let’s see, the NEO-STALINIST Media Megalopoly which whet its appetite on See It Now March 9, 1954 and Mark Feldt-Howard Hughes $100k, sees its role as MAKING rather than reporting “news”, and the professional eunuchs complain about lost jewelry.
Nate Silver is an idiot shilling for the hussein regime. His recent article about sports statistics in the ESPN magazine was a bunch of pin-headed nonsense. He knows nothing about facts and reality.
And yet in the US, he's viewed as an Oracle who can predict the US elections several months out with 90%+ certainty.
Silver is no longer the gold standard of polls?
While I am certain Nate Silver is a sharp guy, his Obama prognostication in 2008 and 12 seem to be the outliers in his success rate. I have no idea how he got those SO right when he can’t seem to get close to accurate in other areas. In 2008 I figured he just used inside data to get his numbers. However in 2012 he picked the states exactly right. He definitely has some model that gets these electoral votes correct.
Oh no! Does this mean we may have to wait until actual voters have spoken to determine winners and losers?
The one thing Silver fails to factor in.. is his own liberal bias.
He is usually good at predicting liberal wins, but it’s becoming more and more obvious he is horrible at predicting conservative ones.
Anyone cheeky enough to ask about my vote would be invited to perform one or more unnatural acts.
Election Day is one single day i.e. 24 hours with years of runup. Just because the media get geeked up and can’t wait until the next morning to get the results is not an excuse for all the speculation and so-called scientific predictions.
More like wishful thinking on the part of a biased pollster....
George Soros informed him quietly about how the election fraud was going to play out.
Polls are failing us? What have those pesky polls done now?
“Polls are Failing Us” = “Liberals Lost Again”
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