Posted on 05/05/2015 8:43:08 AM PDT by MosesKnows
A rising triangle or whatever the techies call it, I believe presaging a breakout in one direction or another. Something is going to happen, or maybe it won’t.
“Why has the DOW crossed 18,000 when GDP is essentially negative? And how much higher can it go as median wages in the US fall while food, housing and energy prices relentlessly climb higher?”
I don’t claim to be an expert. Most people that try to pick high and low, and speculate wind up losing money.
My philosophy for investing is to buy, and hold for the long term.
As to the specific circumstances of the market and economic conditions now: The USA remains a best choice, from among others in a time of economic slowdown, uncertainty, problems, etc.
The best economic decisions that I have made in my life were:
—To buy real estate, and hold.
—To buy stocks, and hold.
—In 2009 to keep real estate and stocks, even though prices dropped.
So in the face of the market possibly adjusting from say 18000 to 15000, I think I shall hold on the prospect of later reaching 21000.
Such has been the long term result of buying and holding.
If one were to look at market performance ALONE, one would hope for officeholders like Obama, under whom the market has recovered far beyond what his strongest opponents might have predicted.
Of course I detest Obama, but I avoid popular comic book character views of politics, to see underlying longer term trends.
Finally stock values today include discounts for expected conditions of the future. I believe that validates my comments above.
Buying and holding is a ticket to nowhere I have found. It is for young people or those with strong stomachs and optimism bubbling over. Buying low and selling at a fair profit, rinse and repeat, I have found to be a better way to make money. And when the hair stands up on the back of my neck I just park my money at 3 or 4%.
“Buying and holding is a ticket to nowhere I have found. It is for young people or those with strong stomachs and optimism bubbling over. Buying low and selling at a fair profit, rinse and repeat, I have found to be a better way to make money. And when the hair stands up on the back of my neck I just park my money at 3 or 4%.”
Then you are probably a far more wealthy man, than I.
What I have bought and held is California real estate and energy stocks, by the way.
—the market is WAY overvalued.
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I firmly believe that we will all see our present economic system collapse....and that of the world. I care not a thing about how various analysts continue to paint a semi-rosy picture. Common sense is VERY uncommon these days.
I think we are stuck waiting on obongo to go away, the fed to finally raise interest rates etc. I think industry here has gone as far as they can go with adapting to adverse conditions and that they are out of steam and ideas to overcome the adversity that is this government and administration.
First the dead cat bounced from 2009 then we went through a constantly threatened stifled recovery and now we are just out of steam.
I figure the market is sideways for years to come.
deceptive house of cards isn’t it?
As long as it is not your blood in the streets and you’ve got any available to spread around.
Who has material amounts of uninvested cash just lying about?
Investor vs. trader.
Real Estate is good in places not so good in others. My home in Ct has barely appreciated while the acre I have on a lake in NH with a small camp has quintupled in 15 years. Go figure.
Yes. It crosses into irrational too often to make long term investments in the broad market. But that’s just my take. I know all the smart guys say buy and hold. My experience simply tells me that the smart guys do not practice what they preach. I’m not a big trader but I will trade. Mostly I dollar cost average in and when the or if I make a profit on that money that I am happy with I sell it and start again. It works for me but I would not recommend it.
As such, the so-called Greek exit from the Eurozone will essentially have zero impact on the world's economy, unlike what could have happened in 2011.
It allows them to bounce the average up or down a couple hundred points and ASSURE that their high speed computerized trading systems MAKE MONEY daily.
All you post is correct and has absolutely nothing to do with the question.
Not me at the moment. I just built my retirement home and I’m house poor. So this time around the best I can do is move my 401K stuff to a safe haven ... perhaps the money market... before the fudge hits the fan.
I don’t think we’ll have a meltdown like what happened in 2008.
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I really hope that I am wrong, but I FIRMLY believe that we are going to see something far worse than what happened in 2008 or in 1929. Everything is globally connected now and too many countries have insurmountable debt.
Another factor: Even our own country does not have sufficient resources to handle a MAJOR war or other catastrophic events.
One more thing: Our nation is so ideologically divided that the will to truly unite will be hard to come by.
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