Posted on 04/13/2015 10:08:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There’s already plenty of bad punditry regarding the chances of Hillary Clinton — who officially announced her candidacy on Sunday — to become the 45th president. You can find Democrats boasting about their “blue wall” in the Electoral College and how hard this will make it for any Republican to win. Or Republicans warning that the Democratic Party rarely wins three elections in a row.
Most of this analysis is flimsy. So is the commentary about the ups-and-downs in early swing state polls. And when you see some pundit declaring a minor misstep to be a “game changer,” find someone else to follow on Twitter.
The truth is that a general election win by Clinton — she’s very likely to become the Democratic nominee — is roughly a 50/50 proposition. And we’re not likely to learn a lot over the rest of 2015 to change that. Here’s why:
Incumbency and Obama’s Approval Rating. Start with the fact that there’s no incumbent president running. There actually haven’t been a lot of cases that precisely meet the circumstances voters will face next year: Barack Obama, assuming he serves out the rest of his term, will become just the fifth president limited by the 22nd Amendment from seeking an additional term in office.1 This is slightly different from the case where an incumbent voluntarily declines to run again.2 Still, the evidence we have from presidential elections and from other contexts like gubernatorial elections is that these cases default to being toss-ups.
Clinton’s chances will be affected by Obama’s popularity as he exits office. The relationship between the popularity of the previous president and the performance of the new nominee from his party isn’t perfect — Al Gore (narrowly) lost in 2000 despite Bill Clinton’s popularity, for example — but it certainly matters some,
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Hillary has a lot of baggage that will have to be schlepped by the MSM.
They will gladly abandon her for a new face, new name, less baggage and better treatment................
It’s A Toss-up Between Her and Any GOP Candidate
BUT.... literally ALL the massive voter fraud WILL GO TO HER...
You know.............. like last time in 2012 only WORSE..
It’s a toss-up which RINO the republican primary’s will choose..
.... This will allow the real intended candidates, such as Martin O’Malley et-al, to walk through through the gauntlet relatively unscathed and gain popularity amongst Democrat voters as viable alternatives to the usual tired old politicians.
Although much does = must (in the interest of race relations) the opposite is not the case until the Rev. sanctifies it. Just FYI.
Run Hillary Run, and then keep on running until you have left the country......please!
I have to hand it to Nate Silver, he may be a lefty, but he does bring compelling statistical analysis to politics.
Sounds about right. Dems have the edge but terrible turnout. Neither side ever has a big edge Nationally. Sadly, Nationally, the most competitive GOPer may be Jeb. I may cry.
So it’s a flip of the coin, 50-50 between 2 candidates? Boy I’d have hated to pay for that research:-) And I still think Ill-ary has no chance in hell, especially after eight years of Mufti obama.
1. Her penchant for attracting scandal like bees to honey.
2. Her inability to accept criticism.
3. Her known bad temper.
4. Her age at the time of Inauguration Day 2017 of 69.
It's going to be a lot less easy sell for her than people think. This will be ESPECIALLY true if she ends up facing Ted Cruz.
Hillary’s only chance to be elected comes from the RNC’s need for an amnesty candidate to please their Cheap Labor Express paymasters.
Jebster will lose graciously if they are able to run their playbook like they did for McCain and Romney.
You are not alone.
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