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Deflation And The Year Ahead
TMO ^ | Clif_Droke

Posted on 01/07/2015 5:24:51 AM PST by blam

Januarary 07, 2015
Clif_Droke

Stocks were hit by selling pressure on Monday as the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.83% and the Dow 30 shed 1.86%. The energy sector bore the brunt of the selling with the NYSE Oil Index declining 4.61%. Crude oil prices also dropped nearly 5% for the day to close at 5 ½-year lows.

Fears that Greece may exit the euro zone are being blamed on the latest broad market decline. Upcoming elections in Greece have spooked many investors, who feel that the country's exit from the euro zone would be disastrous. The most likely reason for the market decline, however, is the fact that investor sentiment has been excessively bullish in the last couple of weeks. A pullback in the major indices should remove much of the excess optimism and pave the way for a sounder market environment.

Many investors are also concerned over the potential for a bad year based on the so-called January Barometer. This indicator is predicated on the belief that as goes the month of January, so goes the entire year. Some even place emphasis on the first five days of January as having prognosticative value. Yet the January Barometer was wrong in 2014 - the month of January last year was resoundingly negative, yet the year as a whole was positive.

As discussed in previous commentaries, the year ahead should be a bullish one overall based on the Year Five Phenomenon, notwithstanding the possibility of a volatile January. This particular market maxim has held true for over 100 years, namely that there has never been a losing year in the fifth year of the decade. The reason for this is that the 10-year Kress cycle bottoms at the end of the fourth year for equity prices.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: deflation; economy; finance; investing; stockmarket
"Recent dollar strength and oil price weakness has once again stirred up concerns among investors that deflation could be a problem in 2015."
1 posted on 01/07/2015 5:24:51 AM PST by blam
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To: blam
"Yet the January Barometer was wrong in 2014 - the month of January last year was resoundingly negative, yet the year as a whole was positive."

...only after being filtered through ubiquitous smoke and mirrors.

2 posted on 01/07/2015 5:27:38 AM PST by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
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To: blam

Does it bother anyone else that the people handling the money seem to be a superstitious bunch?


3 posted on 01/07/2015 5:48:49 AM PST by BlackAdderess ("Give me a but a firm spot on which to stand, and I shall move the earth". --Archimedes)
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To: blam
DEFLATION IS HERE
4 posted on 01/07/2015 5:58:00 AM PST by blam (Jeff Sessions For President)
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To: blam

Don’t see how so long as Janet Yellen can fire up the printing presses at will.

Besides, why would the exit of a bankrupt, failing Greece be a bad thing for the Eurozone?


5 posted on 01/07/2015 6:09:54 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: blam

I WISH there was some deflation. Prices keep going up in the grocery stores.


6 posted on 01/07/2015 6:33:59 AM PST by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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