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Everything You Should Know About the Jobs Numbers
Townhall.com ^
| December 6, 2014
| Mike Shedlock
Posted on 12/06/2014 12:34:35 PM PST by Kaslin
Initial Reaction
The payroll survey shows a net gain of 321,000 jobs vs. a Bloomberg consensus expectation of 230,000 jobs. September was revised up from 256,000 to 271,000. October was revised up from 214,000 to 243,000.
The unemployment rate was steady although employment only rose by 4,000 in the household survey. Unemployment actually rose by 115,000. Swings in household survey employment and the labor force have been wild lately.
Once again we are in a situation where the establishment survey and the household survey are at odds. Over time these fluctuations tend to smooth out. The question, as always, is "in which direction".
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Nonfarm Payroll: +321,000 - Establishment Survey
- Employment: +4,000 - Household Survey
- Unemployment: +115,000 - Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: -177,000 - Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: +235,000 - Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.8% - Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 11.4% - Household Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +187,000
- Civilian Labor Force: +119,000 - Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: +69,000 - Household Survey
- Participation Rate: +0.0 at 62.8 - Household Survey
November 2014 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2014 Employment Report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.
Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image
Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted
Nonfarm Employment January 2011 - November 2014
Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type
Hours and Wages
Average weekly hours of all private employees rose by 0.1 hours to 34.6 hours. For three consecutive months I said the exact same thing. Twice in a row, a correction now put the previous month at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.4 hours.
Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.04 to $20.74. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees also rose $0.04 to $20.53.
For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.
Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment
click on chart for sharper image
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.
The official unemployment rate is 5.8%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 11.4%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS:
1
posted on
12/06/2014 12:34:35 PM PST
by
Kaslin
To: Kaslin
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has the Obama stench all over it.
2
posted on
12/06/2014 12:43:56 PM PST
by
subterfuge
(Minnesota: the laughingstock of the nation - for lots of reasons!)
To: Kaslin
#1. It’s a load of crap designed to fool the nolow constituents and doing a damn fine job of that?
3
posted on
12/06/2014 12:47:44 PM PST
by
rktman
(Served in the Navy to protect the rights of those that want to take some of mine away. Odd, eh?)
To: Kaslin
4
posted on
12/06/2014 12:49:13 PM PST
by
stephenjohnbanker
(The only people in the world who fear Obama are American citizens.)
To: Kaslin
5
posted on
12/06/2014 1:05:35 PM PST
by
george76
(Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
To: Kaslin
Why don’t we ever see the monthly numbers of :
How many people paid income tax
How many people paid Social Security taxes
6
posted on
12/06/2014 1:09:04 PM PST
by
Rockpile
To: Rockpile
Because, it is more important we know how many people are on the non-farm payrolls that were born under the sign of Taurus, born in the afternoon hours, on a day the sun shone brightly, to rich white folks, that live in houses facing south, that had one cow for milking. Now, any more questions?
7
posted on
12/06/2014 1:19:56 PM PST
by
biff
(WAS)
To: Rockpile
“monthly numbers of income taxes and SS”
Monthly? Who needs monthly?
That information is published DAILY by the Treasury Dept. It’s called the Daily Treasury Statement.
See: https://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html
Page 7 has tax deposits and payments of all kinds:
Withheld Income and Employment Taxes
Individual Income Taxes
Railroad Retirement Taxes
Excise Taxes
Corporation Income Taxes
Federal Unemployment Taxes
Estate and Gift Taxes & Misc IRS Rcpts.
Cash Federal Tax Deposits:
Direct
Through Depositaries
Total Cash FTD’s
Inter-agency Transfers
Every single one of those numbers reflects an actual dollar balance. They are not subject to any adjustment or modification or smoothing or substitution — they are just actual numbers reflecting real transactions in any given 24 hour period.
Since they aren’t subject to any fiddling or game-playing, they’re the only fed numbers I pay any attention to or rely on.
For Sep-Oct-Nov, using withheld income and SS taxes only, year-over year withholding is running about +4%. Earlier in the year — Jan-Feb-Mar — it was running about +8% y-o-y.
Of the current roughly +4%, about 2% is for new jobs (total non-farm employment has been running about +2% y-o-y all year.) That leaves about +2% as increased withholding for existing “old” jobs. Assuming 2% inflation, that leaves essentially no net wage growth happening right now. Net wage growth was running about +5% early in the year and has slowed down steadily all year.
The upshot of all that is employment is growing slowly but steadily, and average wages are stagnant.
Despite the worst that President Chickenshit can throw at it, the U.S. economy is resilient enough to manage to grow slowly. Perhaps growth rates will improve a little next year with Republican control of the Senate. 2017 might finally see a return to consistent, solid 4%+ growth if jug-ears is replaced with any Republican.
A general point on the article. Shedlock is mistaken when he says “all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out” when talking about how unemployed people are counted.
Whether or not anyone is collecting a UI check has absolutely NOTHING to do with who is counted as unemployed. That number is determined solely by the Household Survey — you are either able to work and actively looking or you ain’t. UI doesn’t matter, period.
To: Kaslin
the numbers come from the federal government, THAT is all you need to know... to know it's bull$h!t
9
posted on
12/06/2014 2:59:47 PM PST
by
Chode
(Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -w- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
To: Kaslin
When are they going to crank in 5 million new job seekers?
10
posted on
12/06/2014 3:27:53 PM PST
by
NonValueAdded
(Pointing out dereliction of duty is NOT fear mongering, especially in a panDEMic)
To: Chode
11
posted on
12/06/2014 3:40:32 PM PST
by
Kaslin
(He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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