December/year-end Markets; Investment & Finance Thread

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | Nov. 30, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[abb]

Oil UP today? How can that be? Dead Cat Bounce?

[ConstantSkeptic]

Thank goodness we decided to simplify our investments at the end of last year and we sold our Linn Energy in December 2013 for about $31/share. It closed today at $16.69. Ouch!

[Toddsterpatriot]

Thanks for the tip!

[expat_panama]

 

Hi guys!  Yesterday's stock sell-off brought the distribution day count up to 3 for the NASDAQ and the S&P now has 2.  (They don't like to say "correction" until we're seeing more like 6.)  Metals snapped back up but ever volatile futures have 'em down this morning -1.15% compared to +0.07% for stock indexes.  Reports today: Construction Spending, Auto Sales, Truck Sales.  From the Daily Weirdness:

• Markets start pricing in early 2015 rate cut; rally to continue Reuters - 6 hours ago MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's debt and swap markets rallied on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut early next year.
• MarketsOil prices dip again after Monday's recovery Financial Times - 5 hours ago Oil prices rebounded strongly yesterday from a post-Opec meeting rout, but are already giving up some of Monday's gains. The Brent oil benchmark has slipped 0.2 per cent to $72.4 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate has fallen 0.5 percent to $68.6.
• Head of New York Fed doesn't know when to keep mouth shut New York Post - 5 hours ago Back on Jan. 6, 2011, I explained in a column that Bill Dudley , the head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, wasbreaking Fed rules by meeting with Wall Street executives during the bank's blackout period.
• Asia shares take heart from oil bounce, dollar capped Asian equities rose on Tuesday, with a rebound in crude oil and other commodity prices favoring the stock markets of resource-exporting countries. Crude oil held on to its gains after rebounding sharply ...
• Consumers The Real Threat To Obamacare - James Surowiecki, New Yorker

[mad_as_he$$]

Hummmmm...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/world/europe/russian-gas-pipeline-turkey-south-stream.html?_r=0

[expat_panama]

Todd's a much faster study than I am on this --iirc he's far more serious career-wise than I, but I had to print out your post (as is the case many times) and study/reread till I have it mapped out.   The timing's great here 'cause year-ends are good for reviewing and updating investment strategies --light trade days in end Dec. are also good for all the new homework assignments this means.  Tax time also puts all this work on the front burner --good to know you're nearby.

Thanks for broadening my horizons here, and all the best wishes; Ann & I are fine, busy as always  she sends her regards.

[expat_panama]

So Russia’s cancelling a massive investment for selling gas to Eastern Europe and the NYTimes says it’ll be better this way for European consumers. Leaves me a bit confused, but that’s got to be logic only the NYT could understand.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

The Old Grey Lady of ill Repute leaves you wondering sometimes.

[mad_as_he$$]

Good; because I was puzzled also. Here is Reuters take on it:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/us-russia-gas-gazprom-pipeline-idUSKCN0JF30A20141201?feedType=RSS

[Chgogal]

Well, that would force Western Europe to look elsewhere for their energy needs.

Interesting Observation: My niece is studying in Holland working towards a Masters of Science in Finance and Investments. Anyhoo (as she says) she just got back from London. London was super crowded everywhere. Mostly tourists. She hardly heard any English spoken at all. Harrods the super luxury store was standing room only, BUT what was really interesting ONLY the Chinese were buying (remember she speaks Chinese very well). All others kept their hands in their pockets. Must have been only Dutch tourists there. ; )

[expat_panama]

	Markets		yesterday		today
	metals		Steady back up w/ gold $1,204.21 and silver $16.54		Futures @ 2 hrs. before opening +0.05%
	stocks		Biotech led bounce in lower trade ending w/ S&P and NASDAQ both up +0.6%		Futures +0.01%

Reports/news:

ADP Employment Change
Productivity-Rev.
Unit Labor Costs - Revised
ISM Services
Crude Inventories
Fed's Beige Book

• US CEOs Perceive Dimmer Economic Growth but Plan to Increase Hiring Beta Wired - 25 minutes ago According to a survey released on Tuesday top corporate chief executives remained a bit less optimistic about the direction of economy that is continuously dropping down and they have plans to cut off investments in businesses over the upcoming months.
• Euro zone risks return to contraction, China outlook smoggy The euro zone economy may face another contraction after business activity grew less than expected in November despite heavy discounting, although Asian ...
• Your tax breaks in limbo as Washington quarrels
• A Stock-Market Correction Is Imminent - Lawrence McMillan, MarketWatch
• 5 Reasons Markets Are Headed For A Crash - Jeremy Warner

[expat_panama]

Whoa, sure is wonderful getting the inside scoop from kids doing neat things --tell her 'hi' from me & that I said she's going into a fantastic program.

Maybe Western Europe has already been forced to look elsewhere and it's because of Putin's past callous disregard for the need for economic stability. That and his mindset thinking he can arbitrarily force concessions by halting energy sales. OK so it works one year but the next year he's SOL. Happens so often w/ say, the surly union worker going on strike or the snooty shop clerk refusing prompt service. The market's no place for bloated egos.

[Grampa Dave]

Decades ago, the first ETF’s came on the financial market.

They have often been a good thing versus the mutual funds with the brain washing to the buyers, us, to buy and never sell bs mantra.

The ETFs are never focused on one or two stocks in a select group. That avoids trying to outwit the market to find an Apple or Google. I just buy TDIV which pays a great dividend and invests in the top Nasdaq stocks. If Apple stumbles and fumbles as it did awhile back, the other stocks pick up the fumbles as their win.

Many fund managers play politics versus buying good stocks. A prime example are mutual funds which buy stock in left wing losers like the NYT and keep them afloat with the investors’s $’s.

On the other hand ETF’s for the most part have a strategy of buying the stocks in an index and a specific financial sector with the stock winners in that sector/

One of the biggest advantages of ETF’s over mutual funds besides the above is the ability to set a stop loss order to sell if the ETF’s market value drops below a certain %. That can save your financial butt when the huge losses occur in the financial markets. For example you have set a sell point at a 10% loss, and there is usually an automatic selling of your ETFs when that happens. You can’t do that with a mutual fund, you can only sell a fund in a falling market at the end of a day.

I set a 10% stop loss order when I buy a new ETF. For example if the ETF costs $100/share, I set a stop loss sale order at 90$. I recalculate when there have been good gains, for example if the ETF value goes up to $120/share, my new stop loss sale order is $108. So if the market drops back to a $100/share, I still made $8/share.

There is no penalty for selling an ETF as with many mutual funds. At this time Fido charges a little under $8 for any sale or buying of an ETF. If you buy several hundred, this is a low cost.

Now, more and more financial firms, as noted below, are buying various ETF’s for their customers in mutual funds and open management of funds as noted below.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/institutional-etfs-continues-rising-says-170700180.html

[expat_panama]

tx fer the headsup! The idea that institutional investors are moving toward etfs ought to be a good thing for me as these days I’ve been about 1/3 etf’s, 1/3 stocks, and the rest funds.

[Grampa Dave]

“tx fer the headsup! The idea that institutional investors are moving toward etfs ought to be a good thing for me as these days I’ve been about 1/3 etf’s, 1/3 stocks, and the rest funds.”

It can be good or bad. In case they try to manipulate the ETF is another reason to have up to date stop loss sale orders on each ETF.

[expat_panama]

	Markets		Yesterday		Futures (3 hrs. before opening)
	metals		Recovery continues w/ gold $1,204.69  silver $16.50		+0.12%
	stocks		S&P 500 marched to a new closing high and small-cap stocks rose higher than their large-cap brethren. Volume remained light (from IBD)		+0.10%

This morning's econ announcements:

Challenger Job Cuts
Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
Natural Gas Inventories

Related threads:

• CEO says Exxon Mobil can be “successful” with $40 oil (h/t Chgogal)
• Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era (h/t 1010RD)

[Wyatt's Torch]

sorry I have been gone. Been a crappy last couple of weeks. I was sick last Monday and Tuesday and then we had a death in the family...

So what did I miss?

[catfish1957]

then we had a death in the family...

Sorry to hear that WT, our condolences to you are your family.

So what did I miss?

Oil!!!!!

[catfish1957]

are = and (typo)

[catfish1957]

Oil is getting ready to finally give us some decent buying opportunities. Right now XOM is yielding 3%, and has a better credit rating than the US government. Missed the dip at 90. I am still hoping we get another one, so I can stock up.