Posted on 11/24/2014 4:54:32 AM PST by thackney
Some people have an intuitive grasp of the obvious.
And some people do not have an intuitive grasp of the obvious.
Oil will be king for along long time. Oil is not only fuel, but raw material for many other products from fertilizer to plastics etc. It is what “renewables” are made from both ion terms of power to manufacture as well as base materials.
Oil has more power to mass than most anything other than nuclear, is cheaper to harvest, we don’t eat it nor do we have to do much more than cook it to make fuels and other byproducts (wax to asphalt etc). Unlike etoh, h2 etc, it gives us more power than it costs/consumes to produce.
Oil will be the fuel of the 24th century and beyond!
The majority of that feedstock for petrochemical is natural gas liquids, ethane to pentane+. Refineries do produce it, but we are getting more from Natural Gas processing.
I suspect it won’t happen for a while. Oil prices will simply adjust - i.e. fall until they reach some kind of equilibrium with CNG. Isn’t CNG’s problem energy density? Shouldn’t an all-CNG vehicle will require at least 50% more space for fuel storage? Aren’t CNG fuel tanks also heavier than the average gas tank because the walls have to be thick enough to handle the stresses of highly pressurized gas?
So they’re saying that SOME DAY we won’t use as much oil as now. That was useful.
I agree. The magic question is: "How long is a while?"
Oil prices will simply adjust - i.e. fall until they reach some kind of equilibrium with CNG.
I doubt they fall that far, at least not beyond a very short-term dip if that. I don't see gasoline equaling CNG for many months before climbing.
Shouldn’t an all-CNG vehicle will require at least 50% more space for fuel storage?
About that much.
Aren’t CNG fuel tanks also heavier than the average gas tank because the walls have to be thick enough to handle the stresses of highly pressurized gas?
They are mostly carbon fiber these days, but yes, a I would expect tanks storing equal amounts of energy would have a heavier CNG tank.
But it all comes done to dollars per mile, in my opinion.
;-)
The best option for automobiles is Telsa's new cars that may be coming out. With batteries that may last more than 300 miles and shorter charging times, their may be more of these. However, I don't see the public going over en-mass till 400 miles and 30 minutes or less charging times.
Even so, most electricity will be generated by fossil fuels for a while. Nuclear is still unpalatable and hydro only does a fraction. Wind power has been a joke.
No, until something better is out there than what is available I see no turnaround for the foreseeable future. But that could change if the situation becomes dire enough.
I will make a prediction. It won’t happen untill the alternative is cheaper!
” That may be 30 or 40 years from now.”
Well, that’s a specific prediction! I love these folks taking wild swings into the future and the “reporter” proclaiming they have an amazing story.
I am a complete agnostic on the transportation fuel of the future. Fuel cells and electrics are possibilities, but both require a primary energy source working in the background. Nuclear remains the best option for that. Electrics also face the limitations of current battery technology; whether and when that will be solved is an open question. Biofuels are currently a bridging option, but if costs can be reduced for third generation feedstocks, probably algae or microbes, change could be very rapid. The production potential is staggering. Process costs are the issue, and there is a good chance that these can be significantly reduced. This would be a major game changer.
It discusses Natural Gas to take the lead over oil.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't use it now and the near term future. You could say the same thing about oil in 1940. Would it have been a good idea to not use it for several decades because of that?
Near my area, with the recent drop in gasoline prices, CNG is ~20% cheaper. But the CNG option for the vehicles is several thousands more. Depending on the miles you drive your vehicle before a trade in, there is savings. Far more savings when gasoline is back over $3.
Wind is held back by nature. When it blows too hard, you have to shut down the devices or they will self destruct, if it doesn't blow enough, they produce no out put.
Without tax dollars {mine and yours}, there would not be any wind mills in the USA and certainly not the 14,000 abandoned ones that have seen their tax subsidies expire.
Yet another lefty scam based on fraud.
Many of the big Great Lakes ore carriers are undergoing repowering just now. Their V-16 Pielstick motors, in service since the early 80s, are reaching the end of their lives.
Their solution is more of the same; a pair of light distillate burners.
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