The Triumph of De-Demonizing

A prayer has been answered -- not for a massive Republican victory at the polls, though that, too. No, I'm thinking of the perennial prayer of losers: "Oh Lord, let my enemies go too far."

The results of the 2014 midterms will be chewed over for weeks and months. One datum that hasn't received much attention so far is the exit poll result showing that 71 percent of voters are somewhat or very worried about another major terrorist attack in the United States. Such is the Republican reputation for hardheadedness on national security that the party benefits from this concern without breaking a sweat.

Another takeaway: The Democrats' tactic of demonizing Republicans has not just run its course, but it's beginning to boomerang. Three groups have been particularly invited to believe that Republicans are a menace to them: women, Hispanics and blacks.

The war on women theme worked as recently as the Virginia governor's race in 2013. Terry McAuliffe won single women voters by 42 points.

Democrats hoped to reprise the theme this year. Here's what went wrong. 1) Republicans got savvy about choosing candidates; 2) They refused to be lured onto the Democrats' playing field, where the insulting assumption is that women voters are motivated solely by gynecological concerns; and 3) Democrats overplayed their hand.

Every Republican who opposed abortion was depicted as attempting to outlaw birth control. Republicans turned this aside by touting over-the-counter sale of contraceptive pills. Republicans were accused of opposing equal pay. They responded, archly, by noting that women were frequently paid less than men on their opponents' staffs. DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz said Republicans like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are "grabbing us by the hair and pulling us back."

When the votes were counted, women preferred Democrats, but only by four points; whereas, men chose Republicans by 16 points. Schultz will be rubbing elbows on Capitol Hill with Barbara Comstock, Mia Love, Shelley Moore Capito and Elise Stefanik, among other newly elected Republican women. If she bumps into Iraq War veteran Joni Ernst, the latter can explain what real war is like. Sandra Fluke, the "war on women" pinup, was defeated, along with abortion warriors Wendy Davis and Mark Udall.

Just as Democrats assume women voters care principally about below-the-waist issues, they believe Hispanic voters can be corralled by immigration reform. The 2014 results suggest that they may have taken this too far, as well.

In state after state, including Texas, Georgia, Kansas and Colorado, Republicans gained ground with Hispanic voters. According to Mark Hugo Lopez of Pew, "Latinos identified less with the Democratic Party and a growing share identified with Republicans." Texas Governor-elect Greg Abbott spent money and time campaigning in heavily Hispanic districts and was rewarded with 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback pocketed 47 percent, as against 46 percent for his Democratic opponent. In Colorado, Cory Gardner soft-pedaled immigration in favor of jobs and smaller government, while Sen. Mark Udall was preoccupied with abortion.

Showing up on Spanish radio and TV has helped Republicans to convince a growing number of Hispanics that they're not the deporting ogres Democrats have conjured. It didn't hurt that Abbott's Hispanic mother-in-law cut ads for him. The party's image is also burnished by the reelection of Govs. Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval.

Finally, even the great, pernicious constant in American political life -- the race card -- seemed a little worn around the edges this year. The Democrats trotted out their election year one-trick pony: In Arkansas, leaflets distributed in black neighborhoods referenced Ferguson and said, "Republicans are targeting our kids, silencing our voices and even trying to impeach our president." In North Carolina, a radio ad attempted to link Thom Tillis to the shooting death of Trayvon Martin. They had no effect.

It would be ludicrously optimistic to predict the imminent demise of solid Democratic voting by African Americans. But note these straws in the wind: Liberal black commentators like Tavis Smiley, Juan Williams and Charles Ellison have questioned both the Democrats' race baiting and the Obama administration's record on jobs, incomes and other measures of well-being for blacks and all Americans. Videos like "Rebel Pundit" denouncing Democrats for the state of cities like Detroit are making the rounds. This is ... new.

Democrats went too far. The sex, race and ethnicity gambit is sounding forced, stale and desperate. Republicans should make efforts to win every constituency: women, men, Hispanics, blacks, Asians, everybody. Let the Democrats be content with their base: NARAL, ACORN and the press.

I don't believe they are capable of change.

They got their butts handed to them in 2000 and they didn't change. They just found some new lies and doubled down on the old ones. The press especially doubled down, any pretense of objectivity discarded.

If the pubs refrain from self destruction, it will be interesting to see what new lies can be found.

...exit poll result showing that 71 percent of voters are somewhat or very worried about another major terrorist attack in the United States.

This should be repeated by every Repub politician in every conversation in every permutation.

Meme: Secure the borders to keep the terrorists out.

Will Hurd seems invisible for some reason, he is the first black republican congressman from Texas since reconstruction and won the 23rd district, which is 69% Hispanic, and defeated an Hispanic incumbent.

excerpted NYTs quotes:
““The question is going to be: Are the Republicans going to come in for Hurd?” Mr. Mackowiak said. “He’s less well-known and wasn’t expected to win his primary. It’s going to take some time to reintroduce himself.”

“Another issue is that Mr. Gallego can use his Hispanic heritage in the border district as an advantage. Republicans have made a concerted effort to attract Hispanics, who have traditionally voted for Democrats, and convince them that the Republican Party’s positions on abortion and taxes are in step with their own beliefs. The district is about 69 percent Hispanic, according to the Texas Legislative Council’s 2012 data.

“I am sure he’s going to do a number of ‘wink, wink, he’s not Hispanic’ efforts, but we’ll see how that plays out,” Mr. Mackowiak said, adding that Mr. Hurd can win those independent voters over with some effort.”

“Mr. Gallego said he does not know how that will play into his strategy, if at all. But he joked that there was nothing he could do about his ethnicity.

“The fact that I am Latino is not a secret. There’s not much I can do about that,” he said. “It is what it is. I think people know that my last name ends in a vowel. What can I tell you?”

Obama was a "perfect storm" of appeal: Blacks, young idealists, guilty whites, women, Hispanics, people tired of "politics as usual", Bush-haters....

In 2008, they managed to get all these plates spinning at the same time. That's a trick that will be harder and harder to pull off.

The real difficulty with treating the electorate as little Balkanized compartments is that it works just often enough to tempt the Dems to adopt it as a universal model and assume that everyone votes purely out of class interest. There are interests that transcend class, especially social and ethnic class, and they happen to be ones the Republicans win on: lower taxes, national security, and a sense of pride not in being a black or white or Hispanic American but in being an American.

There is, as well, a tendency for progressive Dems especially to treat their opposition purely in the abstract: ALL Republicans are racist and therefore you must be, ALL Republicans are capitalist corporate drones, rich white males, etc, etc. The reason this resort to ideology fails is that it is inflexible, and when it runs up against an Ernst or a Love or a Stefanik who is meeting the War On Women trope with an amused smile, it loses. Badly.

I feel fairly secure in offering the proggies the advice of "less ideology" because it's good advice they'll never take.

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