I agree with you completely on the Iraq government crumbling. There is nothing I have seen in the Abadi government that is far enough departure from Maliki to win over the Sunni tribes en mass. Perhaps some will. Further, Iraq’s budgets are pegged on a 90 USD per barrel. The barrel price is now 80 something. Which means they have revenue problem. As well, the oil production is off 25% because of areas under ISIS. This spells a huge potential for failure. Much of the 2015 budget will need to go into military spending... If they last that long
Yeah, the cratering of the oil price is a good thing in the short term, for the rest of the Earth, but all the OPEC countries are basically dictatorships (Venezuela included) or some other form of despotate, and rely on patronage and largesse to hold the polity together. Only the Gulf States have enough pumping capacity per capita to raise money on volume to make up for the drop in profits.
That said, the next few weeks will see some startling transformations, and it will get worse, then stay that way for at least a couple of years. When the smoke clears, if the US regime handles it right, there won’t be an Iranian nuclear bomb, and there will be a Kurdish nation seated in the UN.