Posted on 10/05/2014 9:36:07 AM PDT by centurion316
Republicans remain the favorite to win Senate control in November but have been been unable to cement their lead heading into the final month, the new CBS News Battleground Tracker finds, with the Democrats are hanging in across a number of close races.
Competitive Kansas race threatens GOP senate takeover At least two factors could delay Republicans on their road to 51. First is the even the race in Kansas, where independent candidate Greg Orman is now estimated to be deadlocked with Republican incumbent Pat Roberts in this study. It isn't clear with whom Orman would caucus, if elected. (He's indicated he'd go with whichever party is in the majority, but that of course is uncertain, and there are scenarios in which he himself could be the tiebreaker.)
Another factor is the very real possibility of a runoff in Louisiana, if no candidate reaches 50 percent. In these estimates neither incumbent Mary Landrieu nor Republican Bill Cassidy breaks the majority threshold with multiple candidates on the November ballot; Landrieu has a plurality in that test, but we also tested a runoff between her and Cassidy, and Cassidy leads that head to head. That translates into an eventual Republican edge to get the seat in our simulations, but the political reality is that there would be another campaign between now and then and would, at a minimum, forestall any GOP Senate celebration. A runoff, if it happens, would be held in December.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Remember, the Reagan/Carter election was considered “too close to call” until the final week before the election.
I think the surprise will be that many Democrats will not turn out for the election since they don't have a candidate.
I’m not from Kansas, so I don’t know exactly why Roberts is not liked by some Republicans. I do believe that he has a fairly high conservative voting rating by the various groups.
I would oppose anyone that cannot categorically state that they would not caucus with nor vote for the Dem majority leader. My God, if you can’t separate yourself from Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer, you couldn’t separate yourself from the Devil.
The unions, especially the teachers union, is going to be pushing turnout in order to vote against Brownback in the Governor’s race. The whole idea for getting Taylor off the ballot as the Democrat candidate in the Senate race was so that those Democrats would vote for Orman in the Senate race.
Complicates?? it ends their path.
It would have been better if Roberts had retired.
Career politicians are aiding in the collapse of plans to take the senate. The establishment spent millions to protect lifetime moochers like Roberts and Cochran. Now, it blows up in their faces and we pay the price. The GOP has no idea how to win elections anymore. I’m not expecting to capture the senate—they are experts on wasted opportunities.
Yes, I know that was the intent, but these little games tend to backfire.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Orman (I) | Roberts (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 9/14 - 10/1 | -- | -- | 45.4 | 40.2 | Orman +5.2 |
| NBC News/Marist* | 9/27 - 10/1 | 636 LV | 3.9 | 48 | 38 | Orman +10 |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov* | 9/20 - 10/1 | 2013 LV | 3.0 | 40 | 40 | Tie |
| USA Today/Suffolk* | 9/27 - 9/30 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 46 | 41 | Orman +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports** | 9/16 - 9/17 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 45 | 40 | Orman +5 |
| FOX News | 9/14 - 9/16 | 604 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 42 | Orman +6 |
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