Missouri Doctor: ‘It’s Just A Matter Of Time Before [Ebola] Is Carried To Every Corner Of The World’

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2014/10/03/missouri-doctor-its-just-a-matter-of-time-before-ebola-i ^ | 10/03/2014 | unknown

[The Duke]

Only if the virus mutates to airborne transmission. As it currently stands, transmission of the virus is still relatively slow by modern viral disease standards.

I suspect that slower transmission may actually help the disease to spread.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Just like HIV.

[jpsb]

Are you any good at math? If so, the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8. That means that each victim of Ebola on average infects and additional 1.8 people. The mortality rate of Ebola (without world care health care) is about 50%. The complete Ebola cycle (infection, incubation, symptomatic, recovery/death) takes about 30 days.

Now all you have to do it the math! Since I like math I'll do a few computations just for fun.

Lets say we have 5 infections on day 1.
On day 31 we have (5 * 1.8 = 9) 9 infected people and (5/2) 2.5 (call it 2) dead victims.
On day 61 we have (9 * 1.8 = 16.2) 16 infected people and total of 6 dead victims (2 + (9/2))
On day 91 you have about 30 infected and about 14 dead. You see how this works?

Right now there are about 7,000 infected and about 3,200 dead. So do the math and see what the numbers should be for Nov 1, 2014. Or calculate the date when fatality should exceed 10,000.

Hopefully the Rate of Infection in the US will be lower (much lower) then 1.8. But anything over 1.0 is bad bad news.

[jpsb]

Not really, HIV takes years to kill but has a similarly low Rate of Infection, 4 I think. So 1 person over the course of 5-10 years infects 4 others. But Ebola kills in days not years. See my post above for the math.

[cuban leaf]

the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8.

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Depending on where you live, culture, etc.

The average drop out rate for schools in the US is interesting, partly because I went to a large school where nobody dropped out. The US is not Nigeria in so many ways.

[cuban leaf]

the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8.

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Acording to the Billy Graham rate of conversion, I believe they have converted the entire world several times over.

That’s the problem with this kind of math. It’s not accurate.

[Salvation]

BTTT! I think the doctor is correct.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

In 1986 we were told that 50% of Americans would have HIV in by the year 2000.