Skip to comments.
Missouri Doctor: ‘It’s Just A Matter Of Time Before [Ebola] Is Carried To Every Corner Of The World’
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2014/10/03/missouri-doctor-its-just-a-matter-of-time-before-ebola-i ^
| 10/03/2014
| unknown
Posted on 10/03/2014 9:59:05 AM PDT by redreno
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-28 last
To: RayChuang88
Only if the virus mutates to airborne transmission. As it currently stands, transmission of the virus is still relatively slow by modern viral disease standards. I suspect that slower transmission may actually help the disease to spread.
21
posted on
10/04/2014 5:49:46 AM PDT
by
The Duke
To: redreno
To: cuban leaf
Are you any good at math? If so, the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8. That means that each victim of Ebola on average infects and additional 1.8 people. The mortality rate of Ebola (without world care health care) is about 50%. The complete Ebola cycle (infection, incubation, symptomatic, recovery/death) takes about 30 days.
Now all you have to do it the math! Since I like math I'll do a few computations just for fun.
Lets say we have 5 infections on day 1.
On day 31 we have (5 * 1.8 = 9) 9 infected people and (5/2) 2.5 (call it 2) dead victims.
On day 61 we have (9 * 1.8 = 16.2) 16 infected people and total of 6 dead victims (2 + (9/2))
On day 91 you have about 30 infected and about 14 dead. You see how this works?
Right now there are about 7,000 infected and about 3,200 dead. So do the math and see what the numbers should be for Nov 1, 2014. Or calculate the date when fatality should exceed 10,000.
Hopefully the Rate of Infection in the US will be lower (much lower) then 1.8. But anything over 1.0 is bad bad news.
23
posted on
10/04/2014 7:08:26 AM PDT
by
jpsb
(Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
To: <1/1,000,000th%
Not really, HIV takes years to kill but has a similarly low Rate of Infection, 4 I think. So 1 person over the course of 5-10 years infects 4 others. But Ebola kills in days not years. See my post above for the math.
24
posted on
10/04/2014 7:12:37 AM PDT
by
jpsb
(Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
To: jpsb
the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8.
Depending on where you live, culture, etc.
The average drop out rate for schools in the US is interesting, partly because I went to a large school where nobody dropped out. The US is not Nigeria in so many ways.
25
posted on
10/04/2014 10:18:19 AM PDT
by
cuban leaf
(The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
To: jpsb
the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8.
Acording to the Billy Graham rate of conversion, I believe they have converted the entire world several times over.
That’s the problem with this kind of math. It’s not accurate.
26
posted on
10/04/2014 10:19:41 AM PDT
by
cuban leaf
(The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
To: redreno
BTTT! I think the doctor is correct.
27
posted on
10/04/2014 10:33:10 AM PDT
by
Salvation
("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
To: jpsb
In 1986 we were told that 50% of Americans would have HIV in by the year 2000.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-28 last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson