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Senate Update: A Troubling Trend For Democrats In Colorado
FiveThirtyEight ^ | September 25, 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/26/2014 8:05:32 AM PDT by centurion316

The battle for Senate control has been close all year, but also remarkably consistent. Way back in March, we described Republicans as slight favorites to pick up the chamber. And since FiveThirtyEight officially launched its forecast model this month, Republicans have had between a 53 and a 65 percent chance of winning the Senate. Our most recent update, as of Thursday evening, is close to the middle of that range, putting Republicans’ takeover chances at about 58 percent.

There’s no guarantee things will remain this way. At just about this time two years ago, Democrats broke open what had been a stalemate in the battle for Senate control. The FiveThirtyEight forecast had the race almost even at the beginning of September 2012, but had Democrats as an 80 percent favorite by the end of that month.

This year, however, has been characterized by what Charlie Cook calls “head fakes.” Just 10 days ago, Democrats had been benefiting from a string of good polls in Colorado. Since then, the Democratic incumbent in Colorado, Sen. Mark Udall, has seen his situation worsen, with the past five polls showing a lead for Republican Cory Gardner instead.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado
KEYWORDS: colorado; election; senate
Nate Silver uses his special sauce to adjust polling data. He does this in part because of how unreliable polls have become and he has had some success with his models. Although he is a Liberal, I think that his work is the most reliable that is out there these days.
1 posted on 09/26/2014 8:05:32 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: centurion316

You know they don’t have PAVED ROADS in Colorado! Michael Bloomgberg Dumbberg said so!


2 posted on 09/26/2014 8:16:28 AM PDT by buffyt ("After the midterms......obama is free to rain pure destruction on America")
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To: centurion316
Two Colorado state representatives were recalled form office and one was forced to resign so the democRATS could keep her seat.
3 posted on 09/26/2014 8:23:18 AM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: buffyt

I predict a dem wipeout in CO.


4 posted on 09/26/2014 8:25:11 AM PDT by Lurker (Violence is rarely the answer. But when it is it is the only answer.)
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To: buffyt

“You know they don’t have PAVED ROADS in Colorado! Michael Bloomgberg Dumbberg said so!”

Totally true, and the place is full of homophobic, redneck gun freaks. Of course, we all have to carry guns just to protect ourselves again the rampant mountain lion attacks.
So, my advise to people on both coasts is come ski and GO AWAY. And don’t bother sending money to our Democrat politicians either.


5 posted on 09/26/2014 8:28:06 AM PDT by thorvaldr
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To: mountainlion

“Two Colorado state representatives were recalled form office and one was forced to resign so the democRATS could keep her seat. “

What about Gov. Chickenpooper? I have seen polling that he’s loosing his race as well.


6 posted on 09/26/2014 8:40:10 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: thorvaldr
So, my advise to people on both coasts is come ski and GO AWAY

Remember a few years back, during the last license plate redesign? The peoples' choice for the plate motto was Spend your money and leave!

7 posted on 09/26/2014 12:20:33 PM PDT by kitchen (Even the walls have ears.)
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To: kitchen

“Remember a few years back, during the last license plate redesign? The peoples’ choice for the plate motto was Spend your money and leave!”

But now we need to be more clear that we DON’T mean spend your money buying politicians.


8 posted on 09/26/2014 12:30:20 PM PDT by thorvaldr
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To: thorvaldr
Those people don't even visit. The rats go to them.
9 posted on 09/26/2014 4:49:11 PM PDT by kitchen (Even the walls have ears.)
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