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Nate Silver's Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ^ | 09/16/2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/16/2014 10:15:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

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To: A CA Guy

like unionistas who attack coworkers for having republican “stuff” on or at work while democrat election materials are essentially mandatory?


61 posted on 09/16/2014 12:14:09 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Kazan
And, what good is that doing? That allowed Democrats to take back the Presidency and Congress and inflict permanent damage to the country -- like Obamacare -- that will never be reversed. That make ya feel better? Not voting for Romney gave us a second-term of a President that can't or won't defend the country and has opened the borders to illegals. Thanks for standing principle, pal.

Hey, don't look at me. I voted for Romney in 2012. And guess what, after destroying all the conservatives in the primary, he played nicey-nice with Obama and LOST. L-O-S-T.

Pal.

So from now on I won't be voting for any more RINOs. Ever. Not under any circumstances. Period.

In the past I voted for McCain, and Romney nationally, and for Scott Brown in Massachusetts. But I guess it depends on your belief in how far gone this nation is, and what it will take to restore it, assuming that is even possible at this point.

Personally, I now believe that the only way to save this nation now (assuming such a thing is still possible) is to put conservatives in political offices and enact an agenda based on free markets, limited government and the rule of law. As long as we have a Republican party that actively opposes those ends (and we do, obviously), then I believe our only (slim) hope is drastic action.

As long as the Republican Party establishment believes that it can continue to survive by being Democrat-lite, and that it can continue to maintain power while actively fighting against the core principles of liberty, free markets and Constitutional law, it will never make the necessary change of direction.

Only when the Republican party understands that it must change or die can we hope to turn this country around. Our too-long-serving entrenched establishment politicians can still enjoy their comfy lifestyles, their wealth, power and prestige as members of a minority party. So why should they bother to change direction?

Surely a John Boehner (or an Eric Cantor -- had he not been defeated -- or a Mitch McConnell) would be just as happy to be minority leaders if the election cycle didn't go their way. Yes, they would prefer to be majority leaders, but what good would it be to them if a conservative Republican Party won the majority and then threw them out of their cushy positions and all those perks, replacing them with real conservatives?

Ask yourself -- which do you think Mitch McConnell would prefer -- a majority Republican party in which he was stripped of his position by a conservative majority, or a minority Republican party in which he could remain Senate minority leader because the majority of Republican senators were RINOs?

You may argue that we have no time to wait for the Republicans to realize that their only choice is to change or die as a viable party. But if we don't have time for that, then what makes you think we have time to wait for the RINOs and the GOP-e to pursue a "moderately marginal" course of action designed only to maintain their personal fiefdoms at the expense of a free America operating under the rule of Constitutional law?

The GOP had majority power in the House and Senate, and occupied the White House, 10 years ago. What did all that power do to move the agenda of liberty forward? Answer: nothing.

A GOP that cannot even sell liberty, limited governments and free markets to the American people is worse than useless. It is a party of tyranny enablers, and I will have none of it.

Unbelievably, today we are facing once again the stark choice between liberty and death.

Once again, these are the times that try men's souls. Conservatives need to be waging aggressive war against the totalitarian leftist tyrants on all fronts -- in the branches of government at the federal and state level, in academia, in the media, through public demonstrations, and in the voting booth.

Many argue that we must continued to vote for "the most electable conservative," which means "vote for the RINO if no conservative is running." But I respectfully disagree with that choice. I am done enabling.

If we really are to lose the greatest country in the history of the world, then let's at least be fighting for it when it goes down.

And who knows, maybe -- just maybe, if we show sufficient resolve and conviction -- divine Providence will once again provide the support that gave our founders their unlikely victory in 1776, and grant us once again the "new birth of freedom" that Lincoln called for a century later.

If you reward bad behavior, you get more of it. The RINOs have managed to own the Republican party because they know that conservatives have nowhere else to go.

Your approach is playing right into that strategy. The RINOs have become so certain of your vote that they actually believe they can continue to stay in power by declaring outright war on the conservative base.

And when they do that, they are actually declaring war on core American principles -- war on liberty, war on free market economics, and even war on the Constitution.

The RINO Republicans cannot even make an appeal to the traditional American love of those principles, because they have lost the credibility and historical awareness to articulate them, let alone promote them.

Yes, having Harry Reid continue as speaker is a horrific scenario. But having RINO Republicans win that office is only a marginally better short-term outcome.

And in some ways it is even worse, because as the RINOs “reach across the aisle" to promote marginally modified Democrat policies, they give the Democrats cover from the well-deserved blame for what they have unleashed on our country for the last five years.

America is out of time now. We cannot continue on the current path. And as things continue to deteriorate, who do you think the voters will blame if the Republicans are in power when the 2016 elections come around?

You think Mitch McConnell's senate will repeal Obamacare? You think it will take the right position on immigration?

America needs clear, passionate and articulate voices to advocate and defend our founding principles, to secure our borders, to preserve our nation, and to take legislative and administrative steps to turn this country around, assuming it still can be turned around.

Majority leader Mitch McConnell will NEVER provide that voice or leadership. He is not the guy to turn things around for our formerly blessed nation.

But in 2016 a newly terrified Republican will be forced to court instead of alienate the conservative base, and come 2017 will be in a position to put the party and our nation on the proper path. Such a duly chastised party has a real chance of nominating a Ted Cruz, instead of a Mitt Romney who, according to last night's panel on Fox News, is at this point the likely Republican presidential nominee.

So in November, I urge those who vote in Kentucky to stay home on election day, or vote libertarian -- anything to prove the RINOs wrong in thinking that they can stay in power by literally declaring war on conservatism.

Think about it.

62 posted on 09/16/2014 12:22:03 PM PDT by Maceman
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To: SeekAndFind

So the percentages have changed nearly 10 points in two weeks based on what? The great way things are going in the Obama led disasters of foreign and domestic policy?

Nate Silver, please.


63 posted on 09/16/2014 12:52:22 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s amazing considering every national poll has the GOP wiping out Democrats, when asked on generic party. And the economy, and Obama’s approval, etc.

Yet in the singular races, the GOP can’t seem to pull away.

For some reason it’s especially tough to knock off incumbent Dem Senators. I saw some stat the other day that was mind blowing.

I do see the GOP holding all three they are defending (even KS).

They then pickup MT, WV, SD, AK, and AR. That’s +5.

Which would then makes LA a national race for the Senate, helping Landrieu.

Unless one of the other “tossups” breaks for the GOP.

My rank of likelihood: 1. Ernst IA, 2. Tillis NC, 3. Brown NH, 4. Gardner CO.


64 posted on 09/16/2014 12:57:07 PM PDT by nhwingut (This tagline for lease)
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To: boycott

Not sure where you are seeing that the dem is favored in SC. According to the chart, as of the initial model, the dem had a 2% chance of winning, and as of the update, it became a 1% chance. Lindsey will win, and Silver’s model is predicting that.


65 posted on 09/16/2014 12:58:01 PM PDT by stremba
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To: stremba

Sorry, I was looking at the special election. The chart shows a 1% increase in democrat’s winning chances in Graham’s race. However, that 1% increase is an increase from 3% to 4% winning chances. The model is certainly predicting a Graham victory, and it would certainly be VERY shocking to see the dems take that seat.


66 posted on 09/16/2014 12:59:39 PM PDT by stremba
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To: SeekAndFind
Lets keep in mind that the GOP usually waits till the last few weeks to begin their ad campaign, while the Democrats being much earlier.

This election will be about getting out the vote and the desire to vote.

Most of these elections are going to be close, but I think the GOP will pull them out.

67 posted on 09/16/2014 1:03:30 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration
Lets keep in mind that the GOP usually waits till the last few weeks to begin their ad campaign, while the Democrats being much earlier.

All that does it make Republicans better at the "no, we're not" campaign. Defensive in posture.

Republicans are afraid to throw the first punch, because the Democrats will go to the MSM crying about how mean the Republicans are.

Works every time.

-PJ

68 posted on 09/16/2014 1:09:13 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: stremba

Thanks. I was a little confused at first.


69 posted on 09/16/2014 1:11:59 PM PDT by boycott
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To: boycott
No, just considerably more difficult: either a state convention or, failing that, installing state governments willing to take up arms.

The last resort (and the most likely to fail) is a nasty insurrection consisting of targeted assassinations of political and business leaders until they back off. Like El Salvador in the '80s.

70 posted on 09/16/2014 1:21:14 PM PDT by pierrem15 (Claudius: "Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.")
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To: cowboyusa
The model isn't the issue. The WaPo has the same exact tally. The Senate is all but out of reach now. There is no national GOP wave. They'll be some pickups but no more. The GOP believes, rightfully so, that their national brand is so damaged that it is better to let the individual candidates mold their own message. This is a referendum on the candidates we run, nothing more.

That and whether the fanatic, lunatic right wing of the party sits on their self-righteous asses again so they have something to complain about full time.

71 posted on 09/16/2014 2:55:14 PM PDT by paul544
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To: SeekAndFind

The future of the country is on the line. Lose the Senate and Obama will have two more years to re=stack the Supreme Court as they’ll get someone to retire.


72 posted on 09/16/2014 3:58:22 PM PDT by wildbill (If you check behind the shower curtain for a murderer, and find one... what's your plan?)
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To: KoRn

True Gillespie, hasnt run much of a campaign. None at all actually, the fix isin and Gillespie is the prop ?


73 posted on 09/16/2014 5:30:24 PM PDT by Carry me back
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To: hcmama

Same in Virginia. The Gop doesnt want control because they like what Obama has done. They give us phony candidates, who are in on the fix and dont want to win. It appears rigged but we’ll see. Your tax dollars hard at work rigging elections, and destroying the world.


74 posted on 09/16/2014 5:35:43 PM PDT by Carry me back
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To: Carry me back

Same in Virginia. The Gop doesnt want control because they like what Obama has done. They give us phony candidates, who are in on the fix and dont want to win. It appears rigged but we’ll see. Your tax dollars hard at work rigging elections, and destroying the world.


The beltway GOP picks lousy candidates and runs lousy campaigns. But really FRiend, all the failing of the GOP are conservatives fault.

You know the party loyalists goose stepping along with this beltway GOP losership are dying to tell us how much we really need amnesty and nothing can be done about Obamacare.


75 posted on 09/16/2014 7:31:48 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: hcmama

2004 was the last time the GOP ever ran an effective campaign. They have the worst ground game possible and let the democrats roll over us. What do they do after they keep losing? The hire the same strategists every time that are responsible for the failures.


76 posted on 09/16/2014 10:01:07 PM PDT by bjcoop
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To: TitansAFC

Post of the Day. Hands down.

Maybe even Post of the 2014 Election Season.

You, my FRiend, may have just articulated the most dead-on analysis I’ve read of exactly what is horribly wrong with today’s Republican party and why it (and, by extension, the enitre nation) continues to lose so badly. Your post should be required reading for every single GOP consultant, but of course they’re all so stupid, inept, and incompetent that they’d immediately dismiss it and continue embracing their failed status quo.

Yep, basically what it’s all come down to is the Demonic Dems are ruthlessly working toward total victory (fully implementing communism/statism) and annhilating all opposition, while the gutless, spineless Republican establishment is simply giddy just to even be at the dance.


77 posted on 09/17/2014 2:23:28 PM PDT by DestroyLiberalism
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To: Maceman

Amen! Another very eloquently stated post!

Bottom line, simply slowing down the radical leftists’ agenda a couple notches by continuing to nominate and (re-)elect RINOs just AIN’T GONNA CUT IT!


78 posted on 09/17/2014 2:31:51 PM PDT by DestroyLiberalism
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