Nate Silver's Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ^ | 09/16/2014 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.

What’s happened? The chart below lists the change in our forecast in each state between Sept. 3 (when our model launched) and our current (Sept. 15) update.

As you can see, there hasn’t been an across-the-board shift. Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.

It might help to break the states down into several groups:

• Republican defenses (Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky). These are the three Republican-held seats where Democrats have some chance for a pickup. Democrats got good news in Kansas two weeks ago when their own candidate, Chad Taylor, ceased his campaign in the state — improving the odds for the center-left independent candidate, Greg Orman. Orman, however, is a slight underdog against the Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, and Orman isn’t certain to caucus with Democrats if he wins. Meanwhile, Democrats’ odds have declined somewhat in Georgia and Kentucky. Taken as a group then, these states have not produced much change in the overall forecast.

[Enlightened1]

If that REALLY is the case, then the election is rigged.

Just poll independents and you will find most of them regret voting for Obama.

[Theodore R.]

These numbers look accurate, maybe a little high for NC.

[PoloSec]

Our Free Republic is right now hanging by a thread, if conservatives fail to win a significant number of seats, so much so that John McCain and his ilk can’t switch parties to give the balance back to the dems, then our Free Republic is doomed.

It cannot be persevered any longer, it must be restored, and that will not happen without the shedding of blood IMO!

[pepsionice]

I think on election night...the Arkansas story will be the biggest item that they focus on. Tons of outside money brought in, and Tom Cotton somehow focused the voter on a more positive message. Pryor was given every single dollar possible and could not sell a positive campaign.

[ilgipper]

Besides the results, it’s an interesting prism into media thinking (and Silver is the darling of the media). Everything is measured by how Democrats will fare. Every story, pool, primary, etc. It’s a view of the built in bias.

[jwalsh07]

We are on an inevitable march over the socialist cliff. Winning a small majority in the senate this year is not going to change the vector of that march.

[boycott]

What has the demo senator of NC done to help her cause? Or should it be what has the republican done to her cause? I don’t know.

If I understand it correctly, they’ve got the demo in South Carolina favored. I have a difficult time buying that one. Yeah, I don’t like Lindsey but I don’t see a demo winning SC.

[KoRn]

I don’t think its as much the money as it is bad candidates.

In NC, *I* would be able to beat Kay Hagan. Instead, the GOPe fielded the only candidate that probably CAN’T.(I think he’s an embarrassment and probably a RINO at heart). They had to run a smear campaign to beat out the real conservative during the primary.

Here in VA we got ED GILLESPIE to run against Warner! I’m not sure that Warner was beatable, but a good conservative candidate could have fired up the base and made a good case, showing Warner to be the 0bama lapdog that he is. The GOPe obviously brought us that one too. I live here, and if I didn’t keep up with this stuff, I wouldn’t even KNOW that anyone is even running against Warner, if I were a ‘low information voter’.....

[tennmountainman]

Americans need more reasons to vote GOP other than Democrats
Bad, Harry Reid evil.

There is no vision or plan coming from the GOP if power is given to
them.

Democrats bad, Harry Reid evil will not be enough.

[AppyPappy]

Voter fraud factoring in.

[Political Junkie Too]

Not rigged, just that Republicans prefer a strategy of not making waves and being passive -- in other words, the Mitch McConnell way.

If the Republicans articulated a national unifying message across all Senate campaigns, things would be different. However, McConnell didn't do that in 2012 and he's not doing it now.

This pattern is exactly what happened in 2012. Republicans were poised to pick up 7 seats before the conventions, and ended up losing 2 seats on election day because nobody tried to unify and nationalize the Senate races, and McConnell was AWOL between September and November.

-PJ

[GeronL]

of course its rigged but the GOP has fielded a bunch of RINO candidates too, that will their chances too

[Hostage]

> “Just poll independents and you will find most of them regret voting for Obama.”

Yes, but most of those critical independents will stay home because the GOP Establishment turns them off as badly as Obama does.

Just as in the Presidential Election of 2012, the republicans electing a president from their party should have been a cakewalk for them. But no, they had to go with Romney who caused a lot of people to stay home.

[boycott]

Americans need more reasons to vote GOP ....

---

Obama stacking the courts. It would be game over for our lifetimes.

[buckalfa]

"If that REALLY is the case, then the election is rigged."

Another thing to consider is that while generic national preference polls tend to favor a GOP wave, the state specific polls show something different: competitive races, especially so now that the candidates are in place. There is widespread dissatisfaction with Obama, but the last time I checked he was not on any ballot.

[dforest]

This is how they prepare for the cheatin’. They send ole Nate out to declare it neck and neck, and then they cheat.

Thing is, what will we do about it when they are cheating?

If it is nothing, then 2016 is already over.

[A CA Guy]

Money, unions going door to door during the hours they were supposed to be at their government jobs.
Millions of dollars thrown by Democrats against Republicans because those attached to government have so much to lose.
They can lose overpayment of wages, benefits or their endless social safety net.

[bigdaddy45]

Oh thats not what I read here. What I am constantly reading is “throw out the RINOs”!!! There is a very large contingent on FreeRepublic who really don’t care if the Republicans win as long as the party is perfectly “pure”.

[Baynative]

I am fearful that conservatives will let victory slip away because of a wide spread tendency to let others do the heavy lifting.

Too many people I work to engage are, "just too busy" or don't have time, but "will be sure to vote".

If just 15% of the people who consistently vote and vote conservative would recruit one new voter or change just one democrat voter's mind we would crush the libs and keep them down for years to come.