We will end up with a "East/West Ukraine" Scenario.
The Russians will take everything East of the Dnieper River. How they will connect to Transnistria, I don't know.
But the Western Portion of Ukraine (including Volhynia, Podolia, Galicia) Will stay independent and forge closer relations with the West, maybe even join the European Union.
I hope not. I hope the Russians get their butts kicked but that isn’t likely since they are now sending in whole tank battalions.
In hindsight, a Czechoslovak-like “Velvet Divorce” may have been for the best back in the 90s.
“The Russians will take everything East of the Dnieper River”
In the beginning, that was my call, as well. But now I think that area may not include Kharkov, and be a narrow area based on Meltipol.
“Ukraine” will be what is left, with Odessa as the port. For several reasons, I don’t think this is going to include Hungarian Ruthenia, either.
As long as the people pulling the strings in Kiev remain in power, it’s going to continue downhill, I fear. Note that I’m NOT talking about Poroshenko. It’s pretty clear now that he’s got a gun to his head if he doesn’t play along with the radicals.
I agree.
Poroshenko will be forced out for conducting an unpopular war and Western Ukraine will move to join the EU and NATO.
Novorossiya and Transnistria will join Putin’s trading and defense bloc.
They have the resources to do that, militarily. However, the past several months showed that pro-Russian sentiment is weak in the East. The insurgents did not have the population's support, and the Ukrainian Army was greeted as liberators everywhere where the insurgents were wiped out. If Russia annexes anything beyond Crimea at this point, they will have a guerrilla war on their hands.
I think, direct hostilities perpetrated by Russia will be the beginning of an end of the Putin's regime.