Posted on 08/19/2014 12:29:03 PM PDT by Kaslin
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is simply living in an alternate universe. While yelling into the clouds over the Koch Brothers’ evil plot to destroy America, he said today that Democrats “are doing really well in Montana.” And is optimistic that they'll maintain control of the Senate (via the Hill):
Reid predicted Democrats would lose a seat in South Dakota, but was optimistic about Montana despite Sen. John Walsh's (D-Mt.) recent decision to drop out of the race after a plagiarism scandal. We are doing really well in Montana," Reid told reporters on Monday.
…
If the election were held today, we'd be in the majority without any question, but the election is not today," said Reid, who argued "it's not going to be easy" for Republicans to win the Senate.
…
Democrats hope to take GOP seats in Georgia and Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is facing a difficult challenge.
Of those two races, Reid added, “we are holding our own.”
In both Georgia and Kentucky, Republicans David Perdue and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are leading. Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn had the unfortunate mishap of having campaign memos leaked, which described her as a “lightweight, too liberal, and not a real “Georgian.” Oh, and those critiques are by her own staff. Her Republican opponent, David Perdue, leads with a comfortable seven-point lead, according to Insider Advantage’s poll.
In Kentucky, the race is going to be a tight one for Mitch McConnell, who’s battling for his political life, but even Huffington Post pollsters give him the advantage in that contest against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, who infamously said that Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system protects Israelis from Hamas’ underground tunnels.
McConnell’s campaign has worked hard to define Ms. Grimes, flooding the Bluegrass state with negative ads calling her “Barack Obama’s Kentucky candidate” and saying she supports “Barack Obama's anti-coal environmental platform,” according to the Wall Street Journal. And, they're working:
Those ads are having an impact. In a July poll sponsored by local media outlets, 33% of voters viewed her negatively, up from 27% in May, while the share of voters who view her positively, which was higher, stayed relatively flat.
In an interview, Ms. Grimes said she has attempted to spend time with people in Kentucky, not "pandering to the press."
"We are no better off for having Mitch McConnell there," she said, referring to his seniority in Washington. "It's not about the lines on a résumé. It is about the passion that you have to work in a bipartisan manner to put the people of this state first."
At the same time, McConnell isn’t doing too badly in the latest Bluegrass poll. He’s virtually tied with Grimes amongst women voters (46/47) and he’s winning the youth vote–those between the ages of 18 and 34–(49/44) over Grimes. Additionally, the poll finds that 27% of likely African-American voters would vote for Mitch McConnell.
As for Ms. Grimes slamming of McConnell’s service in the Senate, She does know that Democrats have been in the majority for the past eight years, right?. And since 2008, the working class of America has seen their average incomes drop by 6.5%, African-American median incomes falling by 9.5%, and Hispanic income dropping consistently every year since the 2008 presidential election, according to WPA Research.
That’s not a shining statistic if you’re running as a Democrat.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Harry Enten threw cold water on Democratic hopes in Georgia and Kentucky last month:
In Georgia, the FiveThirtyEight projection is far more pessimistic about Democratic prospects than the polls. Here’s why: No Democrat holds an elected statewide office in Georgia. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in the state in 14 years. No Democrat has won a presidential race in the state in 22 years. The Democratic candidate, Michelle Nunn, is probably benefitting from name recognition; her father, Sam Nunn, was a well-regarded senator from the Peach State. That edge may disappear once voters realize Michelle is not Sam. Moreover, Republicans may coalesce around the winner of the contentious GOP primary between Jack Kingston and David Perdue.
Kentucky is a similar case — the polls show a Democrat holding her own a in a deeply red state. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, has all the fundamentals going for him: President Obama is deeply unpopular in Kentucky, McConnell is an incumbent, and Democrats haven’t won a statewide federal race in Kentucky in 18 years. They haven’t won a Senate race in 22 years. In May, I estimated that these factors knocked down Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes’s chances of winning by nearly 30 percentage points, from the low 40s into the teens.
Enten described Senate Democrats’ position in the 2014 elections as “perilous,” saying, “A tiny shift could tip the canoe and spill a lot of Democrats overboard.”
As for Colorado, need I say more about the candidate who even Montana Democrats say doesn’t “ have a chance in hell?”
Republicans need to win six seats; they’re probably going to pick up Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu’s re-election bid is a bellwether for Arkansas and North Carolina. If she goes, most likely incumbent Democratic Senators Mark Pryor and Kay Hagan go as well. There’s also Jodi Ernst in Iowa, who could possibly fill retiring Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin’s seat. And don’t forget about Rep. Cory Gardner in Colorado. Plenty of room for Republicans to maneuver and create upsets.
Election 2014 is 77 days away.
Granted, Reid is part of the Democratic leadership going into an election cycle hostile to his party. He needs to be Mr. Positive, the guy who keeps the liberal base at ease. In 2010, then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi filled this role when she said Democrats would maintain their majority in the House, despite the red tsunami that washed 63 of them out of office that November.
Nevertheless, it still makes Reid’s optimism look as insane as the alleged Koch Brothers' double secret probation plan to overthrow the country.
he still needs to fundraise, no surprise.
This coming from the same guy who said MR had not paid income taxes.
This man is as deluded as Nancy Pelousy.
And all the crap he spouts about the Koch brothers ignoring all of the billionaires who fund Dem candidates and left wing causes.
Dem Gov and 2 Dem Senators
Dems have been doing well there for a long time
So he’s stating the obvious.
Not if I can help it. I’m letting everybody I talk to know what the rats are up too.
Reid is like Obama. He is phoning it in. This means the fix is in and the Rat is winning the seat. Rat held the seat and the LIV are mindless enough to pull the lever for the “D”.
Every voter on the reservations will proudly vote seven times for each Democrat candidate. They’re a sovereign nation, you know.
Montana is one of those quirky states not unlike the nearby Dakotas, which almost always votes GOP in presidential elections, but often elects Dems to the US Senate.
This time however, even though the Dems have held this particular seat for 100 years, their luck seems to be running out. First with Baucus stepping down, then with the Walsh plaigering scandal, and now-—I don’t know if you are aware that the Dems selected a certifiable unhinged loon to replace Walsh this November.
If the GOP has a slam dunk pick up this year, it is in this state.
Hairy Screed is a senile old fool, he acts like one.
Oh and BTW lightweight is an understatement. She's a nothing who was given a sinecure, based solely on who her fateher was. Kind of like the first wookie's position ($385,000 annual salary) of "Diversity Director" in the Chicago hospital. Nothing but a thinly disguised bribe to make sure the political payola keeps coming.
And MR lost, didn't he?
stolen....more likely.
With Jumpin' Jim Jeffords only recently dead, this is a statement that SCARES ME! A 5 seat win gets us to 50-50 with VP Joe B. being a party-line voter in ties. A 6 seat win will bring on the DELUGE in pressure by Harry Reid and Obama to swing one Republican over to the 'dark side'. The perks and proffers will be staggering, but, of course, not bribes (snicker!) I'm quite certain that Harry has a list and will be at the phone on the day after the last race is settled!
If the win is 7 seats, it becomes much less likely and if Maine Senator Angus King switches to the GOP Caucus then poor Harry has to have new business cards printed and start complaining about the tyranny of the majority and the need to repeal HIS nuclear option 50 vote majority! Oh LORD, speed that Day!
Very well said
So? Time for a change, don’t you think so?
You said it
Jeffords was a former senator. Leahy is up in 2016 and Sanders in 2018
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