Posted on 08/15/2014 7:57:18 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
Focal correspondent met with Dmitry Tymchuk in Mariinsky Park. Shortly after the start of the conversation to our reporter a passing young guy: walked over, shook hands and warmly thanked for his work. During the Russian aggression in Ukraine Tymchuk has become the most quoted military expert in the country.
Coordinator of the "Information resistance" guardedly optimistic, after the removal of certain separatist groups from the Russian supplies, their defeat may be a matter of a few days. Of course, if Vladimir Putin decides on a direct invasion, the conflict will be very different in magnitude, but in the meantime, the Russian ruler himself, according to Tymchuk, largely became a hostage of sentiments of his subjects.
You discovered for yourself the meaning of Russian operations with "humanitarian convoy"?
First of all, this operation is aimed at Russian society. It is to strengthen the image of Putin as a ruler-"peacemaker". Secondly, it is aimed at residents of Donbass, which used to sympathize with separatists: show them that Putin holds out a hand to the inhabitants of the East in distress from the "Kiev junta."
Kiev was in an awkward position, if you look at the situation from the outside. We're not note a State of war with Russia, and this political bomb we were undermined. Russia offered [humanitarian] assistance, but Ukraine refused [offer]for unknown reasons-and this failure for Russian propaganda is used as another evidence of the genocide in the Donbass." But Kiev has done everything right: any help-only given under the supervision of the international community, but without military escorts, etc.
Ukraine has closed a number of check points on the border, and according to international regulations, Russia should close them and for its part. If, however, the convoy will pass through Ukraine closed items controlled by the rebels, it would mean that Russia de facto recognized the sovereignty of the LNR and the DNI. If the convoy is accompanied by the Russian military, then everything is clear-it is an open invasion.
What part of the border with the RUSSIAN FEDERATION is not controlled by Ukraine?
Talk about 60 kilometers, but, according to our data, it's more than a hundred kilometers, in particular following the withdrawal of our forces from "boiler". We speak of "firing control" of the border, this term, by the way, is our know-how, but it required a clear system for obtaining intelligence and their application: online to get information about the coordinates and the convoy, and to react in a matter of minutes by artillery or aviation. We have no such system. We have no space exploration itself. Americans provide their data for space exploration in the next few days, then you can use them only to confirm some of our strategic observations. Our drones are in an embryonic version of a civic apparatus that artisanal adapted for military purposes.
That is, we cannot bomb the numerous columns of RUSSIAN troops at the border?
Our airfields are located too far from the border. Command cannot react/respond every time to any message in social networks that at some point drove through column "Castles". These reports must at least be checked, after this someone has to take responsibility and give the command for aircraft to take off. Even in a compressed mode, this may take a couple of hours, and by this time, the column has more than enough time to pass through the border and where it disappears is not clear. Secondly, we see how actively the terrorists used air defenses, that is a great danger to the pilots. And we can't just use aviation as active as I would like.
Thanks sanctions
What is the total number of terrorists in Donbass?
Our Government and Western analysts say about 15 thousand people, according to our estimates, about 12 thousand. The risk in another in the past, we talked about 10 thousand, but then they controlled a much larger territory. Now the "density" of terrorists in the square mile has increased. This indicates that Russia will pursue all possible resources. Again re-appeared in the Donbass, troops from Russian Federation, the mercenaries, not only of the former Special Force commandos, but also former law enforcement officers.
What proportion of the illegal formations occupy as "guests" from Russia?
Earlier we mentioned that 30%-Russians, the rest are our fellow citizens, we have the number of "our" decreases, and the ratio is 50 to 50.
Are these 12-15 thousand fighters enough so that they could hold the remaining areas under their control? First of all: they are not in control of the territory they control some individual settlements. The success of any strategy lies in the concentration of forces and means. They are now distilled resources on strategically important areas, first of all, shakhtyorsk, snizhne, Torez, red beam. Through them the route, which remains the last umbilical cord linking the DNI with to "mother"-Russia. If the ATO power cuts the umbilical cord, the question of the DNI is a matter of days.
Of course, the ideal option is to stop the flow from Russia, but this doesn't look like a real challenge. You can try to repeat the feat of three brigades of special forces who tried to take a narrow border zone, but we remember what it was like and how it ended. Thank God we are not Russia, our lost soldiers/military deaths are badly perceived by society. The impossibility of "fire control" I mentioned earlier-because until the termination of supply is not feasible.
However, if it is not resolved, the ATO may continue for a long time. We then will remain one way: to conduct a large-scale general mobilization, throw all the Donbass and, ignoring losses to crush number.
How do you assess the level of training and arming the militants? Whenout all aid to Russia, they have a catastrophic shortage of resources.
What: ammo, fuel? First of all, the brain (laughs-focus). Initially, in the Donbass, counted on Crimea scenerio: Ukrainian army never moves, all in confusion, one-two-and lands is seized. No one expected resistance.
Now a group of outsiders, though sizeable, holds certain territory, Russia still has the ability to support them. But in order to save the DNI and the LNR, Putin will have to make an open military intervention. Putin, yet it seems, is not ready for this adventure, for which we have much to thank the international community.
A strategic turning point in the ATTO has occurred with the introduction of sectoral santions. It's not that they cause now a catastrophic blow to the Russian economy. But, Putin has received a clear message: Europe is ready to defend Ukraine and then economic sanctions may follow with military steps. And that's another picture: it's World War. Is Putin or not ready for this or not, we'll find out soon.
Dialogue doesn't help
All the same, how likely a direct invasion?
I will not undertake to judge this. In order to predict, it is necessary to understand the logic of processes, and in the case of Putin understand his logic is impossible. Of course, we love label Putin as bad words, but in fact he is well aware of his actions. His policy is built on the ambitions of the Russian society. Here is a complete analogy with Nazi Germany, it was after the First World Peace of Versailles, a national humiliation, which was very hard for German society. For the Russians, now this humiliation was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent impoverishment, drop the moral foundations of society, prestige in the world, etc., And, after that comes to power a dictator who says: there is a possibility of revenge! But not in terms of achieving economic success and development of high technology, but in a simple and understandable to the masses things: strengthening military power, conquering new lands, etc.
Based on personal experience with European politicians, I can tell that they still consider Russia "party dialogue." On this, the party had some misunderstandings, conflict situation which must be resolved at the negotiating table-they look at the situation through the eyes of Europeans. I pointed out that in response to this situation you have to look through the eyes of Asians, which now appear the Russians: a dialogue here will not help, they are set to the war, they want a war as revenge, how the "Russian world" to realize their ambitions.
Putin is not such an idiot not to realize how much the world is close to World War III. But any step forward leads to a sharp drop in his popularity.
And the Russian media will not be able to convince its citizens that Putin's retreat in the Ukrainian question is another ingenious step Russian President?
No. If Putin now back down, he will remain the President of Russia, but he will never become the new emperor of the new Russian Empire.
A New Stalingrad
Let's go back to the terrorists. How would you rate the military skills of ordinary fighters and their commanders? Not only the Ukrainian army is learning, but also [terrorist] fighters, to our regret, too. Although they did not create any of the masterpieces of the art of war. Rather, they are being run at the tactical level. Serious operations with non-standard approaches, we do not see the individual art of fighters increasing, but their commanders and generals did not.
In April, when massively seized the administrative building in the Donbass region, the backbone of decision-making and coordinatingcCenter were soldiers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (Gru). They were not directly on the territory of the fighting. Then by the end of May-beginning of June, this coordination has ended. They were taken out of teh main part of Grushnik Ukraine (then part of them returned back in early July), but already there is a disparity in action. Single Centre for decision-making, as opposed to the spring, no longer exists. The Kremlin appears to have decided not to work in a single operation, but just maintain tension to make the Donbass area zone of permanent conflict, to get to get Abkhazia or Transnistria.
If Putin simultaneously carried out the operation in the Crimea and Donbass (and he did not dare for fear of resistance in the first place of the Ukrainian NAVY, and caught up with the Crimea a numerical grouping), then Ukraine would remain without the Donbass.
Popular idea that did not win to conquer the Donbass, as the Crimea, because there has not been the local support of the population Russia expected.
No. Vaccination against separatism for Donbass is just in the current hostilities. People who joyfully greeted Ukrainian troops in liberated settlements do not become immediate Patriots, they will not cry at the sound of our anthem. They are just plain tired of war and lawlessness that prevailed there during the DNI or LNR.
At the headquarters of the ATO say a lot about the desertion of militants. You can confirm this information?
Deserting guerrillas takes place directly on the field of battle. The terrorists have a very good working counterintelligence, they advance neutralize those who are beginning "corrupting" propaganda.
Weight of the terrorists see no reason so far to keep fighting to the last drop of blood. They just stay in the liberated territories, sometimes masquerading as civilians. And this factor cannot be written off in the rear is a lot of people, who under the name of DNI or LNR continue to engage in a criminal way of life, dealing with personal interests. And as a weapons for that, they are enough.
After the defeat of the terrorists are we faced with long-term large-scale partisan?
After graduating from the ATO will torment us with people who are used to solve problems with guns in their hands. I can not rule out the phenomenon of terrorism. In addition to the question of combating criminals, we will have to find and destroy the Russian network, but that is a task for the security services.
Donetsk and Lugansk become the new "Stalingrad"?
Rather, Stakhanov may become like "Stalingrad", taking into account the resources transferred by militants there. In Lugansk, for example, dispersing small teams in residential districts, can severely complicate the task of the ATO forces.
The leadership of Ukraine has sometimes been criticized for frequently sending barely trained troops, despite the fact that we have hundreds of thousands of police, military, etc.
As for the police and intelligence agencies more or less we can agree, though, we see that employees just serve the Interior Ministry and SBU [security services] often just lay down their arms and go over to the enemy. So, if redeployment of personnel of these departments to the newly liberated territory from other regions, then we will just get a relapse of separatism.
The main burden of the army is for the liberation of a territory, it was true that a relatively small part of it is involved in the ATO. But, we have to look at the structure of our army. The main part of it is not combat troops, and military doctors, employees of military schools or research centers, logistics providers, etc. So now, if they all given guns and sent the ATO [Anti Terrorist Operation], their effectiveness is less than the young and strong healthy young people. Further mobilization should aim at creating the establishment of territorial defense battalions, which will patrol and clean the saboteurs vacated from the land which is an essential task.
War- the best school
According to a recent study by world armies, prepared by the American edition of Business Insider, the Ukrainian army occupied the high 21st place. This assessment corresponds to reality?
To answer this question it is necessary to understand the criteria on which the evaluation is scored. If the estimate on the number of people with combat experience, then Yes, we are are on high ground. No so many regular armies of the world have combat experience. Experience, for example, the Spanish contingent in Iraq or in Afghanistan, the Polish can be compares to our soldiers. War is the best school. But if the criterion is the provision of modern weapons and equipment, then we lose absolutely.
In the Ukrainian army a lot of spies and agents of the aggressor?
The question of betrayal in our case rests on the question of corruption. When they say that Russia has introduced its agents in the leadership of each military Department, I am skeptical about such statements. Of course, there was a network established by the Russian secret services, but to saying the question of betrayal in our case rests on the question of corruption. When they say that Russia has introduced its agents in the leadership of each military Department, I am skeptical about such statements. Of course, there was a chain/network established by the Russian secret services, but to say that it this universally controls our General Staff, would be an exaggeration. Danger is from a different kind of traitor -not recruited by foreign spies or mishandled Cossack, and those who simply offer money and claim they "fought." First of all, these people have access to operational information, that have the data on troop movements and planned operations.
We have a very popular thesis that "generals merge ATO". Perhaps some of the generals can push through their relatives in Russia or, say, the generals have their own business interests in RUSSIA, etc., although to appoint these people to positions in the current climate is just silly. Smart intelligence recruits people with access to information, but not in senior positions. Sometimes a cryptographer that does not affect the decision-making knows more useful data than individual generals.
Our army has been marginalized since independence. When a person wearing epaulets and defend the homeland, society considers a hero, and the is supported by the state- is one thing, but when he goes to impoverished and does not know how to provide for his family - is another. Last buy much easier.
Can’t pay attention, tee time.
I think Obama already has made the answer to that question plainly obvious...
Now watch this drive!
Putin LIVES for this.
Whether Putin is or is not, I can definitely say that America is NOT!
God help us all.
If the Ukraine thinks it can drag the world into a war then it needs to think again.
I say no, Putin is not ground war ready, and privately. doesn’t think such a battle will be prudent or even needed. If Putin wants to appear as though he’s getting close to opening full bore warfare, he will orchestrate a seemingly random cluster of diversions, undercover destructive deeds to confuse, drain defense budgets. Maybe its time for China to throw the hood over the governing structures of Taiwan.
Thanks UMCRevMom@aol.com.
Ukraine needs to hit everything coming across Russia border...hwy of death.
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