Posted on 07/09/2014 12:38:06 PM PDT by Krosan
Testimony of
Mr. Edward Lucas
Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor
Center for European Policy Analysis
Washington, DC
July 8, 2014
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Subcommittee on European Affairs
Good afternoon. Thank you for inviting me here today. It is an honor and a privilege to give testimony to this committee and I would like to thank Chairman Murphy and Ranking Member Johnson for this opportunity. I will give a short oral version of my written testimony and then look forward to taking questions.
I have been dealing with European security for more than thirty years, as an activist for freedom and democracy during the Cold War, as a foreign correspondent and editor for major international media outlets, and also as a senior
In 1989 I was the only foreign newspaperman living in
I am the author of two books on the regime in Russia. The first of these, āThe New Cold Warā¯, was written in 2007, at a time when most Westerners were still reluctant to face up to the threat the regime poses both to its own people, and to Russiaās neighbours. Many accused me of scaremongering. Few do that now.
Yet conventional thinking about Russia has surprisingly deep roots. Many people in Washington, Brussels, London and Berlin believe that Vladimir Putinās Russia can be accommodated diplomatically. Money doesnāt smell. Energy is just a business. There is no need to take radical measures in response to the latest crisis in Ukraine. The danger is of a provocative
I disagree profoundly. My views are based on my experiences over many years in in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Russia and other countries in the region. People there have been warning us for years of the dangerous direction of events. We have not listened to them. Instead, we have systematically patronised, belittled and ignored those who know the
problem better than we do. Now they have been proved right. I hope that my voice may be heard, where theirs, still, is not.
My first point is that Russia is a revisionist power. The Kremlin not only regards the existing European security order as unfair but actively seeks to change it. It wants to weaken the Atlantic alliance, to divide NATO and to undermine the European Unionās role as a
Russia begrudges the former captive nations of the Soviet empire their freedom, their prosperity, and particularly their independence. It maintains an
My second point is that Russia, a leading petrostate, now has the means to pursue its revisionist approach:
Ā·it ruthlessly uses its energy weapon against European countries, particularly in
Ā·it uses money. It bolsters a
Ā·it practises information warfare (propaganda) with a level of sophistication and intensity not seen even during the Cold War. This confuses and corrodes Western
Ā·it is prepared to threaten and use force.
My third point is that Russia is winning. Too much attention is paid to the ebb and flow of events in Ukraine. The big picture is bleak: Russia has successfully challenged the European security order. It has seized another countryās territory, fomented insurrection, and engaged in repeated acts of military
My fourth point is that greater dangers lie ahead. Russia has mounted a bold defence of its
had previously shown some signs of declining popularity, amid economic failure and growing discontent about corruption and poor public services. The big danger is that as the effect of seizing Crimea wears off (and as the costs of doing so bear more heavily on Russiaās sagging finances), the regime is tempted to try something else.
Our weakness over Ukraine makes that more likely. We have set the stage for another, probably more serious challenge to European security, most likely in the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are loyal American allies and NATO members. If any one of them is successfully attacked or humiliated, NATO will lose its credibility overnight, permanently and irreversibly. These are our frontline states: the safety and security that we have taken for granted since the end of the Cold War now hangs on their fate.
But geography is against them: the Baltic states form a thin, flat strip of land, lightly populated and with no natural frontier and little strategic depth. Russia knows that. NATO has only a token presence in the region. We have no hardened infrastructure, no
What can we do?
The first task is to see clearly what has happened. European security will not be fixed with a few deft diplomatic touches. To cope with a revisionist Russia it needs a fundamental overhaul. American and European policymakers need to explain to the public that the war in Ukraine was a
We need to rebut the phoney Realpolitik arguments, which advise us to make the best of a bad job. We should accept the loss of Crimea, so the argument goes, do a deal with Russia over the future of Ukraine, and get used to the new realities, of a Russian droit de regard in neighbouring countries.
Such an approach would be morally wrong and strategically stupid.
Securing a Europe whole and free after 1991 has been a magnificent achievement in which the United States has played a huge part. True: we made mistakes. We declared ājob doneā¯ in 2004, when 10
Legitimising Russiaās
suffering at Soviet hands is all but
Instead, we should make it clear that we will boost our allies and weaken our opponents. We do not want to be enemies with Russia. But if the Putin regime treats us as an enemy, we help nobody by pretending otherwise.
The most immediate priority is military. A security crisis in the Baltic region is the single most dangerous threat facing the Atlantic alliance. Reckless behaviour by Russia could face us with a choice between a
That means American and other allies prepositioning military equipment and supplies in the Baltic states. It means NATO creating a standing defence
Russia will complain vigorously about this. But the fact that the Kremlin is unhappy when its neighbours are secure is telling. We should explain to the Russian authorities that when NATO expanded in 2004, we did not even draw up contingency plans for the military defence of the new members, because we assumed that Russia was a friend, not a threat. It is Russiaās behaviour which has changed that. Russia attacked Georgia in 2008. It rehearsed the invasion and occupation of the Baltic states a year later, in the
A further vital military component of security in
The United States should also continue to make good on its promises of missile defence installations in the region. The administration should also consider the interim deployment of armed Patriot missiles in Poland ā a promise which the Polish government believes was solemnly made by the George W Bush administration, but never honoured.
Having shored up our most vulnerable allies, the next task is stabilising Ukraine. It is hard to overstate how parlous the situation is. How much more Ukrainian territory ends up under direct or indirect Russian control is of secondary importance. Ukraine is going to be in the political and economic emergency room for years to come. That is Russiaās doing. Ukraine is suffering a
The outside world must respond generously and imaginatively. A new Marshall Plan for Ukraine should involve not only direct financial support, but the widest possible relaxation of tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian products such as steel, grain, textiles and agricultural products. The European Union has led the way with the newly signed deep and comprehensive free trade agreement, but much more remains to be done. In particular, European countries should accelerate efforts to supply Ukraine with natural gas by reversing the flow of existing pipelines. Russia has already threatened unspecified sanctions against countries which
Second, Ukraine faces a political and constitutional crisis of a kind unseen since the end of the wars in
Third, Ukraine faces a geopolitical and security crisis which could lead to
Deterring Russia, not only in Ukraine but elsewhere, is the hardest part of the task ahead. Russia is an integrated part of the world economy and of world
In particular, we should greatly extend the use of sanctions against individuals. The United States has commendably paved the way here with the Magnitsky Act ā a move which other countries, sadly, have mostly so far failed to follow. The furious Russian reaction to the American imposition of even a handful of visa bans and asset freezes on those responsible for the death of
the
This would send a direct and powerful message to the Russian elite that their own personal business in the West ā where they and their families shop, study, save and socialise ā will not continue as usual. The United States should make vigorous overtures to its allies to encourage them to follow suit. The more countries which adopt sanctions, and the longer the list of those affected, the more pressure we are putting on the Putin regime to back off and change course.
We can also apply much tougher
We also need to improve the Westās resilience and solidarity in the face of Russian pressure. American exports of LNG will be a small but welcome addition to the global natural gas market. Lithuania has built its own floating LNG terminal, which will become operational in December of this year, with the arrival of the aptly named āIndependenceā¯ a vessel constructed in South Korea. Already, Gazpromās grip on Lithuaniaās natural gas market has slackened, and Lithuania has bene able to negotiate a discount from the extortionate price ā the highest in Europe ā which the Russian gas giant had been charging. As energy editor of The Economist, I am sceptical of the idea that we will ever have a deep and liquid global LNG market: the technology and costs involved hinder the development of the needed supply chain. However at the margins, LNG does make a big difference, blunting the edge of any artificial emergency that Russia may try to create with selective supply interruptions.
Europe can do much more. It can build more gas storage, and liberalise the rules governing it, so that all parties have access to the facilities. It can complete the
permanently shelved. The United States should urge the European Commission to enforce its laws.
I understand that the United States Justice Department is rightly suspicious of the way in which Russian companies operate in the world energy market. There are grave suspicions of price- fixing, insider trading,
Next, we need to revive our
Just as we have underestimated the potential effect of Russian energy, money and military firepower, so too have we neglected the information front. Russian propaganda channels such as the multilingual RT channel are
Combatting this will require a major effort of time, money and willpower, involving existing media outlets, government,
Finally, we need to reboot the Atlantic Alliance. As memories fade of the Normandy beaches, of the Berlin Wallās rise and fall, and the sacrifice and loyalty of past generations, we are running on empty. Without a shared sense of economic, political and cultural commonality, the Kremlinās games of divide and rule will succeed. This will require renewed and extraordinary efforts on both sides of the Atlantic. The revelations surrounding the secret material stolen by Edward Snowden have stoked fears in Europe that America is an unaccountable and intrusive global hegemon. This year I wrote a book ā āThe Snowden Operationā¯ attacking the āSnowdenistasā¯ as I termed the NSA renegadeās unthinking defenders. I believe that our intelligence agencies as a rule function well, within the law, and to the great benefit of our nations. But much damage has been done. At a time when we need to be restoring transatlantic ties, they are withering before our eyes, especially in the vital strategic relationship with
Germany. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) offers a rare chance of a
A final footnote: whereas Russia once regarded the collapse of the Soviet Union as a liberation from communism, the regime there now pushes the line, with increasing success, that it was a humiliating geopolitical defeat. That is not only factually false; it is also a tragedy for the Russian people. They overthrew the Soviet Union, under which they had suffered more than anyone else. But they have had the fruits of victory snatched away by the kleptocratic
That is a long post. Will take time offline to read it and absorb
Do you remember?
1. In 1968, Bobby Kennedy was shot and killed by a Muslim male.
2. In 1972 at the Munich Olympics, athletes were kidnapped and massacred by Muslim males.
3. In 1972 a Pan Am 747 was hijacked and eventually diverted to Cairo where a fuse was lit on final approach, it was blown up shortly after
landing by Muslim males.
4. In 1973 a Pan Am 707 was destroyed in Rome , with 33 people killed, when it was attacked with grenades by Muslim males.
5. In 1979, the US embassy in Iran was taken over by Muslim males.
6. During the 1980’s a number of Americans were kidnapped in Lebanon by Muslim males.
7. In 1983, the US Marine barracks in Beirut was blown up by Muslim males.
8. In 1985, the cruise ship Achille Lauro was hijacked and a 70 year old American passenger was murdered and thrown overboard in his
wheelchair by Muslim males.
9. In 1985, TWA flight 847 was hijacked at Athens, and a US Navy diver trying to rescue passengers was murdered by Muslim males.
10. In 1988, Pan Am Flight 103 was bombed by Muslim males.
11. In 1993, the World Trade Center was bombed the first time by Muslim males.
12. In 1998, the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were bombed by Muslim males.
13. On 9/11/01, four airliners were hijacked; two were used as missiles to take down the World Trade Centers and of the remaining two, one
crashed into the US Pentagon and the other was diverted and crashed by the passengers. Thousands of people were killed by Muslim males.
14. In 2002, the United States fought a war in Afghanistan against Muslim males.
15. In 2002, reporter Dan Pearl was kidnapped and beheaded by-—you guessed it was a-— Muslim male.
16. In 2013, Boston Marathon Bombing 4 Innocent people including a child killed, 264 injured by 2 Muslim males.
No, I really don’t see a pattern here.
Did you post this mistakenly under a wrong article? I don’t see a connection to the topic.
The first task is to see clearly what has happened.
Of course, our majority seems unable to do such even as it applies to our domestic circumstances.
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