Posted on 06/26/2014 6:31:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The economy is in a recession in effect if one quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product/economic activity) wipes out the gains of the previous quarter. You do not need officially two consecutive quarters of a flat or minus GDP headline to be called a recession. Instead, as occurred in Q1 (first quarter of) 2008, one quarter GDP was so bad that it wiped out the weak gains of the previous quarter (Q4 2007). Result? The official start of the last recession was Q4 2007 despite the fact that only one quarter was in a minus.
Well, Q1 of 2014 wiped out the gains of Q4 2013, which means we are in a recession and it started Q4 2013.
In Q2 2008, the GDP rose at an annual rate of 2% but it did not end the recession, because jointly with the first quarter of 2008, the economy was still flat and or contracting for six months.
For this recession to end quickly, Q2 2014 GDP needs to add to the economy the $118 billion that was wiped-pout in Q1. That would be a GDP headline of about/above 3%.
The first estimate for Q2 GDP will be released at the end of July, then revised at the end of August, and the final number will be released at the end of September. But even if the late July estimate of Q2 will show a 3% annual growth rate, do not buy it from this administration. Look how the Q1 GDP estimates changed: 0.1% growth in the first estimate (late April); to -1.0% in the second estimate (late May), to 2.9% in the last (late June) estimate.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Huh?
You mean we HADN’T already been?
This will be real good for the midterm elections.
After reading that, it sounded like a traveling salesman just came to my door ... LOL ...
Nope we are in depression, been going on to long to be a recession.
That's the new economy. It is not a recession for the top 25% or so of the population. So, it's not a recession. Does anyone really think they care if the bottom 75% or so are on the brink of financial ruin? We don't count.
We never got out of the last one.
I believe the stock market is going up, because Chinese investors can invest in America’s stock market, but China’s stock market is not likewise available to America’s investors.
Investment therefore moves to where it is possible to invest it.
The problem is, the money doesn’t actually do anything for America, because every American company invests in Asia.
So this is a temporary situation.
It will keep our stock market going up, even though that is only in my opinion because we are selling out our own stock market.
Other reasons the market is up is there is no place else to go for gains and the fiat money pumping the economy (which only hides the real disaster) and low interest rates ensure that the Fed is financing the markets.....and banks.
House of cards. Every day the true condition is hidden makes the coming collapse inevitably worse.......
I didn't know that Chinese and other foreign money in the stock market was such a big deal. So what we've got is a global economy posing as national economies in control of everything? That's even worse than cynical me has been envisioning. The globalist elite can pull the plug whenever they want?
The idea that we ever recovered was pure BS. The stock market is NOT the economy any more. It is not a very good leading indicator for anything other than corporate entities and the stock trading class.
Take my comments as exactly that, comments on a public forum by an independent commentator.
I do not have specifics to back up my impression.
All I know is that China is rapidly generating huge amounts of money, which can move to where it is rewarded.
Internationally, America is an easy place to invest in. We have always been easy.
All I am saying is China is not easy to invest in.
I believe our market is being inflated by international money, which ends up invested internationally anyway.
All of this is the personal opinion of just one independent internet browser.
My .02
Mine opinions are like yours, just impressions I develop trying to keep up on things. I enjoy your input immensely. Your insights make a lot of sense.
“I believe the stock market is going up, because Chinese investors can invest in America’s stock market, but China’s stock market is not likewise available to America’s investors.”
Every day layoffs are announced, the news always reports the positive impact on the companies’ stock. The stock market is going up because companies are reducing their labor costs to pennies on the dollar...
We are in a DEPRESSION....
We are just so Deluded by the Propaganda from the News Protecting this guy that we have been misled to think it is just a Recession...
I love how it takes almost a full quarter to make adjustments to the previous quarter. Couple that with the “strong labor markets” meme being put forth today.
How do you spell government? C-O-R-R-U-P-T
We are being propped up by Fake Money and Bogus Propaganda, and the Fake Money will bust before the Propaganda is admitted to.... Thus we won’t have the Propaganda Bubble bust until LONG after the foundation od the house is completely missing...
We can expect some creative accounting on the second quarter’s results.
They will lie their collective asses off to avoid having to say the obvious;Obama is an abject failure.
You are looking at this all wrong. The economy actually grew by -2.9%. What this means is that more people will be free to pursue their dreams of becoming poets or artists.
Being in a recession used to be a big influence on elections.
But 2012 proved that the Entitlement Army is now large enough that it really doesn’t make much difference.
But it will be fun to watch the regime pundits squirm on tv. The stats are beyond the fudging point now.
[ You are looking at this all wrong. The economy actually grew by -2.9%. What this means is that more people will be free to pursue their dreams of becoming poets or artists. ]
That is like saying you won the lottery when you took out a second and third mortage on your house...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.