Posted on 06/08/2014 6:42:22 PM PDT by Perseverando
Never in my 30+ year career as a market observer have I seen so many out on a limb which is about to be SAWED OFF. Those who live within the matrix are fully loaded for a recovery which is not and will not appear. Nominally the Main stream media can proclaim ECONOMIC recovery has arrived, point to the rising developed world stock markets, seemingly benign bond markets of all categories: sovereign, investment grade and Junk, Private equity, corporate buy backs and more have priced in “Happy Days are here again”. HFT, unrestrained leverage in a financially repressed world and Quantitative easing have done the rest in pushing financial assets to heights rarely, if ever, seen. Volatility is at all-time lows in most markets and investor confidence at superhuman levels. Like a boat where all the passengers are on one side of the boat and it is about to capsize, investors similarly have no fear.
“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”
- Friedrich Nietzsche
The central banks have created moral hazard on a scale which is simply unbelievable and set a stage for a bonfire of the vanities seldom, if ever, seen in history. In fact, nothing I can see rivals it.
“Over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is a large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. . . . The greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the smaller the overall margins of safety in the economy and the greater the fragility of the financial structure.”
- Hyman Minsky, 1992
Professional Investors who have spent a lifetime playing these contrarian opportunities offered by human behavior are being carried out on stretchers as historic market behaviors fail to materialize. So the financial imbalances and historic overvaluations just grow and grow and when they are resolved only God knows. In my opinion, it isn’t materializing because many markets are manipulated, pure and simple, with and without the assistance of the central banks, government regulators and the bankster financial community. As long as the results and consequent headlines are politically correct there are no consequences to be feared, they will be allowed to continue. Politicians HATED markets because they used to expose them as the liars they are. NO MORE as they are now in the hands of megalomaniac’s and sociopaths who don’t know the difference between right and wrong.
“Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Sometimes the law even places the whole apparatus of judges, police, prisons and gendarmes at the service of the plunderers, and treats the victim, when he defends himself, as a criminal. But often the masses are plundered and do not even know it.”
- Frédéric Bastiat
The masses are being plundered on a scale which is inconceivable and unmatched in history; it is the source of the middle classes dying in the developed world. The developed world has become a well-disguised plantation of serfs and slaves. They are given nothing to store and save their labor in as the currency they hold are printed endlessly and have no reserves to back them and are redeemable in NOTHING, contrary to every sound currency in history. Modern day money is nothing less than a wealth confiscation scheme run by morally and fiscally bankrupt central banks and governments against their own citizens.
Is there any human activity where you are not taxed today in one way or another? Is there any major financial holding which people own free and clear of annual taxes or don’t have to share any gain with the masters in central governments? They are your partners in everything even though you performed the work to buy your assets. The government has given the working man nothing in exchange for sharing in the profits or appreciation. Government services such as roads, schools, sewers, police and courts are paid for out of taxes.
“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
As long as big government progressives, elites, the main stream media, and banksters can manipulate and control the reality for the vast majority of citizens they tell themselves they are doing a public good. Fredric Bastiat described this nexus well:
“Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Sometimes the law even places the whole apparatus of judges, police, prisons and gendarmes at the service of the plunderers, and treats the victim, when he defends himself, as a criminal. But often the masses are plundered and do not even know it.”
- Frédéric Bastiat
Throughout the developed world, progressive governments have created huge welfare states that have crippled the futures of the people under whom they were meant to place a safety net. Now, it is a permanent way of life for them and the rolls are exploding daily.
“See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime. Then abolish this law without delay. If such a law is not abolished immediately it will spread, multiply and develop into a system.”
- French economist Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850)
This is the system in the developed world today and it will not be stopped except by Mother Nature and Darwin. These programs have now created a class of people who have no ability to rise and prosper in life: they have no skills, no ability to produce more than they consume, and do not know the source of their inability to do so. They are told their lack of success is someone else’s fault. They are crippled intentionally to be victims of the elites who wish to prey on them and their ignorance. They have been provided a POTEMKIN FAKE education by public schools who FAIL to provide them the educations necessary to rise through adversity and in life. These FAKE educations have ONLY one goal as outlined by George Carlin:
“…But I’ll tell you what they don’t want. They DON’T want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that, that doesn’t help them. That’s against their interests. That’s right. They don’t want people who are smart enough to sit around the kitchen table and figure out how badly they’re getting F#CKED by system that threw them overboard 30 f#ckin’ years ago. They don’t want that. You know what they want? They want OBEDIENT WORKERS. OBEDIENT WORKERS. People who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork, and just dumb enough to passably accept all these increasingly shittier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime, and the vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it.”
- George Carlin
Is this not the world we live in today? These words were said over 15 years ago. The USEFUL idiots as Lenin called them have no ability to think, manufactured by public school monopolies (which I call indoctrination/brain washing centers) and told they have been born with the right to all of their basic needs provided by the government:
“It is not an endlessly expanding list of rights —the “right” to an education; the “right” to health care; the “right” to food and housing. That is not freedom. That is dependency. Those are not rights. Those are the rations of slavery – hay and a barn for human cattle.”
- Alexis de Tocqueville
They believe the impossible dream that they have the right to live their lives at the expense of others and will vote for the people that tell them this is so and use a government gun to make it happen. Most of society today does not know: where money comes from, what it is or isn’t in a historical or practical sense, how wealth is created, the virtues of capitalism and wealth creation, why it’s important to stay debt free and live within your means, why they should work hard and never give up, why save money, why it’s important to be self-reliant, what the constitution is and why it’s important to protect our freedom and future, nor economics of any sort but socialism and Keynesianism (central government control of all aspects of life also known as Marxism).
In my estimation this means they are functually ILLITERATE to life’s basic requirements to grow and thrive as a human in society. They couldn’t be less prepared to meet life’s challenges. The school systems are designed to create peasants and serfs to socialism. Not educated, self-reliant and independent citizens. Prior generations such as mine where taught all these things. We want it restored, and now are labeled extremists and terrorists for insisting on it. This teaching of socialism labeled democracy has led to very destructive behavior:
Democratic institutions awaken and foster a passion for equality which they can never entirely satisfy. This complete equality eludes the grasp of the people at the very moment they think that they have grasped it… the people are excited in the pursuit of an advantage, which is more precious because it is not sufficiently near to be enjoyed. Democratic institutions strongly tend to promote the feeling of envy. A depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak attempt to lower the powerful to their own level and reduces men to prefer equality in slavery to inequality with freedom.
- Alexis de Tocqueville, 1825
This is the agenda of the voting public with the president and his minions in congress and the bureaucracy as his supporters. I have never seen an administration so dedicated to dividing people and attacking the private economy which is the basis of future prosperity. Progressives in Government espouse the gospel of Carl Marx even though they never say so explicitly:
“The whole gospel of Karl Marx can be summed up in a single sentence: Hate the man who is better off than you are. Never under any circumstances admit that his success may be due to his own efforts, to the productive contribution he has made to the whole community. Always attribute his success to the exploitation, the cheating, the more or less open robbery of others. Never under any circumstances admit that your own failure may be owing to your own weakness, or that the failure of anyone else may be due to his own defects, to his laziness, incompetence, improvidence or simple stupidity.”
- Henry Hazlitt on envy and Marxism
This is from where progressives derive their power as this is what the public is taught in public schools. They are a generation of unaccountable victims. Government does not create prosperity or wealth, it destroys prosperity and wealth… correction: it CONSUMES them.
Several weeks ago, I commented on the $30 trillion dollars ($30 million million dollars printed out of THIN air) of new debt which has been created since the nadir of the Global Financial Crisis in late 2008. This has created the greatest fire hose of HOT money zooming around the world in history. Too much money chasing too few opportunities is repressing yields and returns. Combine this with deliberate FINANCIAL REPRESSION by banksters and governments as they transfer the returns from prudent savers to themselves to fill in the insolvency their Reserveless banking systems created. Trillions of dollars of unpaid interest has flowed to insolvent governments and banks during this period and continues to do so as REAL inflation eats the money the public is paid in and stores its wealth in. While bankers and governments borrow money for nothing, false government inflation statistics hide the theft from the public (see www.shadowstats.com).
“You never want to let a serious crisis go to waste.”
- Rahm Emanuel, February 9, 2009
This debt has been disguised as GDP by the governments of the world while they used the crisis not to reform themselves but, instead, to implement new and innovative ways to loot and enslave the publics they claim to serve by increasing taxes, taking regulations to levels of suffocation of private enterprise (moving this demand to connected crony capitalists), removing freedoms and taking confiscation of private property to new extremes. An insidious process, and exactly opposite of the recipe for economic recovery. They have destroyed the human spirit of hope, hard work, and tenacity as they destroy the incentives to do so.
“When people who earn more than the average have their ‘surplus,’ or the greater part of it, seized from them in taxes, and when people who earn less than the average have the deficiency, or the greater part of it, turned over to them in hand?outs and doles, the production of all must sharply decline; for the energetic and able lose their incentive to produce more than the average and the slothful and unskilled lose their incentive to improve their condition.”
- Henry Hazlitt
In the process, creating a society of misery spread widely (definition of socialism):
No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.”
- Adam Smith
Is this not the mood of the vast majority of the developed world? And they are giving up in record numbers, succumbing to the hopelessness in the world their elite masters have created for them.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”
- Carl Sagan
In closing, the greatest top in economic activity and leverage in human history has been in the making since 2000. When the leverage FAILS, the world’s developed economies will be thrust into the next leg of the cleansing process of deleveraging which began in 2000, made another top in 2008 and now this time. The leverage is far greater now than it was at the 2000, and the 2007/2008 highs. The destruction of it will be equally bigger. The world has slipped below the proverbial event horizon of a Black hole, slipping closer and closer to the final denouement of the insanity running amok today.
Then, we will have a time of great economic and social turmoil as what has gone before slides to its doom. Then, a great reformation will emerge just as it did in China after the cultural revolution failed in 1976 and then with Deng Xiaoping in 1989 when he said “to get rich is glorious” and he unleashed the human spirit in China and wealth creation exploded. Don’t you think similar epiphany’s lie in the future after the socialist welfare states of the world collapse?
“Political ideas that have dominated the public mind for decades cannot be refuted through rational arguments, they must run their course in life and cannot collapse otherwise than in great catastrophe.”
- Ludwig Von Mises
This conclusion is firmly on the horizon; let’s call it the great INSANITY. I believe this version is the greatest in history and will be written about for centuries. Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it and this time is no different. However, there is always great opportunity with great danger as the greatest transfer of wealth from these that hold it in paper to those that don’t is underway and there is nothing that can stop it. The sociopaths and elites have no ability to turn the ship of states around as their policies have created the collapse. While this is a manmade disaster, it is most definitely the greatest opportunity in history for those that see it and adjust their behavior accordingly. Don’t ever forget, THEY WILL PRINT THE MONEY!
But we were discussing physical FRNs.
Are you changing your claim?
Does the government now have to repay every single dollar in existence, with interest?
I don't think your changing claim makes any more sense than your original claim.
The facts are clear, any and all federal reserve notes in circulation, be they actual paper notes or characters on a computer screen, represent a debt owed to the federal reserve banking cabal by the tax payers of the Unites States.
Unbelievably silly claim. Let me demonstrate.
I go to the bank to get a car loan. My loan increases the money supply. How does my increased liability put "the tax payers of the Unites States" on the hook?
When taxes are insufficient to cover their liabilities, they issue a treasury note to the federal reserve bank
You are mistaken. The Treasury does not sell or issue Treasury notes to the Fed.
No they don’t.
You’re confused. I already figured that out.
“See, the debt existed before the money was printed. Now go forth, and correct that error.”
The Weimar Republic printed money to pay back a massive debt from the Treaty of Versailles. We are doing the opposite, printing money first, creating inflation, and then supposedly paying back the debt created with devalued money. Although none of the debt-reducing has happened yet.
How do you figure they are "retired"?
They take them off the books. They aren’t counted as part of the official debt, and they’ll never be repaid. It’s not like the Fed is ever audited or can go broke.
The Treasury is not printing money to repay Treasury debt.
“No one wants to blame their self for making too little money. It’s always easier to blame the government or a “bad economy.”
Likewise, people who are under-employed think that everything costs too much. Cars are too expensive and groceries “keep going up in price.””
Just because you or I am doing well, doesn’t mean it is a healthy or stable economy. Ifvthe vast majority are experiencing stagflation or are under-employed, the economy as a whole isn’t sustainable. Even during the Civil War, some individuals amassed fortunes off of the rest of the population. That type of ‘success’ isn’t something to be proud of.
Off what books? I can look up bonds held by the Fed in less than a minute.
They aren’t counted as part of the official debt,
Sure they are.
and they’ll never be repaid.
When they mature, the Treasury pays the Fed. When interest is due, the Treasury pays the Fed. It happens all the time.
It’s not like the Fed is ever audited
Except for the annual audit they publish every year.
or can go broke.
That's true, a central bank can't go broke.
That’s exactly what I said.
The debt will be repaid eventually, supposedly, and at that point it will be with inflated money. It’s not cause and effect but an eventual consequence.
Here’s a little better explanation of how the Fed monetizes debt. Additionally I’ve heard Tom Sullivan talk about the amount of debt the Fed has bought being far more than what they report holding, in other words it’s been retired.
************************
How does this monetize the debt? The U.S. government borrows from individuals, corporations and even foreign governments when it auctions Treasury bills, bonds and notes. The Fed turns this debt into money, by taking those Treasuries out of circulation. This decreases the supply of Treasuries, making the remaining Treasuries more valuable.
Treasuries that are more valuable don’t have to pay as much in yield to get buyers. A lower yield drives down interest rates on the U.S. debt. Lower interest rates means the government doesn’t have to spend as much to pay off its loans. This is money it can use for other programs.
The net effect is that it is as if the Treasuries bought by the Fed didn’t exist. But they do exist on the Fed’s balance sheet. Technically, the Treasury must pay the Fed back one day. Until then, the Fed has given the Federal government more money to spend and increased the money supply. This is called monetizing the debt.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/monetarypolicy/f/fed_monetizing_debt.htm
Pre-1965 dimes, quarters and halves are what you want in silver and fractional gold coins. I would not collect bars.
This debt exists whether or not the Fed prints new money.
In other words, folks, every US dollar represented in the denomination of Federal Reserve Notes, in circulation today, represents a debt owed to the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve System only issues money when a rate of return is paid on that money to keep it in circulation. And so, when the Federal Reserve continues to infuse additional dollars into the monetary system, such as it is doing in amounts previously unheard of, each additional dollar in circulation yielding a return on its par value to the Federal Reserve System, that return must come from somewhere. That "somewhere' is your pocket and mine, and anyone who holds Federal Reserve dollars. Since the money to pay the interest back to the Fed System is never created, interest to the Fed System can only be paid by removing enough Fed Dollars already borrowed into circulation to pay the specified interest rate. But the principle owed is not removed! And so contrary to what one might believe, bank interest is never paid out of a debtor's assets. Bank interest is paid by borrowing more funds from the Federal Reserve. You may not be the one borrowing to pay the interest, but SOMEONE is. In this system, the American economy, over time, is being owned more and more by the Federal Reserve, and less and less by private equity.
........was not written by Robert H. Hemphill.
And?
Check this out and help me understand it all.
Who does the audit?
Look, I know you think this is a funny game you’re playing.
Eventually the game of 3 card monty being played with the currency and the debt is going to catch up with us. And it won’t look pretty.
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