Poll shows Pryor leading Cotton; McConnell and Hagan in tight races

washingtonpost.com ^ | 4/23/14 | Sean Sullivan

[cotton1706]

A new round of polling in four states central to the battle for the Senate majority shows Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) with a clear lead over Rep. Tom Cotton (R) and a trio of other incumbents in competitive contests.

Pryor leads Cotton 46 percent to 36 percent among registered Arkansas voters in the New York Times Upshot/Kaiser Family Foundation poll. It's a somewhat surprising finding considering that most other recent polling has shown a neck-and-neck race. The new data come at a time when Democrats are expressing increased optimism about Pryor, who earlier this cycle appeared to be the most endangered senator facing reelection.

The good news for Republicans in the polling is that President Obama's image continues to be a potential liability for Democrats. And in all of the races but Kentucky, supporters of the Republican candidate say they are more likely to vote. Obama's approval rating is in the lows 30s in Arkansas and Kentucky. It's in the low 40s in North Carolina and Louisiana.

In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan (D) (42 percent) is running about even with likely GOP nominee and state House Speaker Thom Tillis (40 percent). Tillis faces a contested Republican primary. If he does not clear the 40 percent mark next month, he will have to face a runoff.

Kentucky is one of Democrats' two best pickup opportunities. There, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has a real race on his hands. The poll shows McConnell (44 percent) running about even with Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) (43 percent).

[cotton1706]

For all of McConnell's ads in the past number of months, he hasn't moved in the polls at all. He's going to lose in November if he's the nominee.

[Viennacon]

“Pryor leads Cotton 46 percent to 36 percent among registered Arkansas voters in the New York Times Upshot/Kaiser Family Foundation poll.”

Bull. He was behind by two points, now he’s ahead by TEN?! NYT are shilling for Pryor who is in mortal peril. There is no way Arkansas voters, who despise Obama, are going to vote for Pryor over Cotton.

[cherry]

how can anyone ever vote rat?....its implausible...

[TomGuy]

NYT poll shows Mark Pryor up 10 in Arkansas

==

The power of suggestion. If the Lib Media say Cotton is losing, maybe the voters will vote for Pryor.

==

There have been several threads recently that show the incumbents polling better than their right-wing conservative TeaParty wacko Christian conservative challengers.

[Of course, early on in 2012, the conservatives were winning by large margins and pundits claimed the Senate would change. It didn't happen then. 2014 may be similar. Graham, Pryor and Landreau both seem to be polling better now.]

[stratboy]

If we use their logic, the gop-e needs to rally around Matt Bevin, he is the only electable candidate. At least that what they always tell us when they want us to vote for their candidate (Romney, McCain, etc)

[cuban leaf]

Yep. I’m one of those conservatives who will vote for Bevin in the primary and Bevin in the general. If bevin is not on the ticket in the general, I’ll vote for the Democrat.

The party’s only hope is to be cleansed of folks like McConnel. If this means defeating him in the general, so be it.

[nhwingut]

If you look at the internals the NY Times poll demo is a joke even for lib poll standards.



In LA, those polled voted for Obama over Romney by 3. Romney won LA by 17. 20 point swing.

In NC, those polled voted for Obama over Romney by 7. Romney won NC by 3. 10 point swing.

In AR, those polled voted for Romney over Obama by only 1. Romney won AR by 24. 23 point swing.

In KY, those polled voted for Romney over Obama by only 3. Romney won KY by 23. 20 point swing.

Furthermore. Look at those who didn't even vote in the 2012 election. Those are all low info Democrat voters. These people are going to suddenly vote in a off year mid term when they sat out a POTUS election? I don't think so.

[mrsmith]

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

I think this is one poll that can safely be laughed at. Question number 21 is interesting.

[skinkinthegrass]

Yeah..."Reid's *itch" McConnell, is running Commercials,
about how HE'S a Workhorse for KY.'s Voters...What an Cr@ppy Liar.
lining his bra, dress and garter belts w/ USACoC Lobbists' $$$$

[TWhiteBear]

Per the OP, this is a New York Times poll reported on by the Washington Post.
Based on that, I would not use a paper version of the OP to swab my dogs anal glands.
TWB

[TomGuy]

The dirty secret of ‘polls’ is that the purchaser can ‘commission’ [’buy’ for those in Rio Linda] the results they desire.

Want a poll FOR something or someone? No problem.

Want a poll AGAINST something or someone? No problem.

Polling companies know how to word poll questions to get a desired result.

Media has used ‘commissioned’ polls for decades to drive headlines in a specific direction.

Conclusion: Polls are useless propaganda.

I just created and took a poll:

How many in this computer room agree with my conclusion?

Result: 100%. Margin of error +/- 3%.

Amazing.

[ScottinVA]

[Of course, early on in 2012, the conservatives were winning by large margins and pundits claimed the Senate would change. It didn't happen then. 2014 may be similar. Graham, Pryor and Landreau both seem to be polling better now.]

Very true. I suspect the "tsunami" will be gentle ripple. Once it all shakes out, the GOP will probably pick up four seats (SD, MT, WV and hopefully AK or NC) in the Senate. I don't have much faith that voter anger at Obamacare will hold.

[txhurl]

bttt

[conservaKate]

I don’t expect any tsunami in any direction for 2014. I am worried about 2016.

[Nickname]

I understand the sentiment, but I could never vote for a democrat—ever. I’d feel dirty for affirming in any way what that party has become, even if it was to thumb my nose at what the GOP has become.

Personally, I’ll probably leave Cornyn blank. Same with the latest Bush who’s climbing the political ladder. Either that or vote third party, depending on what my options are. Won’t be voting for either of them tho.

[Helotes]

Perfect example of how other papers pick up the first paper’s erroneous poll result and echo the bogus claim. This poll has already failed the laugh test:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-new-york-times-poll-bogus_787275.html

[Cyber Liberty]

how can anyone ever vote rat?....its implausible...

Seems that way to us because we pay the bill, but the Gibsmedat crowd is very large, and they aren't about to vote to cut themselves off from free stuff.

[cuban leaf]

It’s easy for me now. I don’t see much difference in the parties, at least in their current incarnation.

[SierraWasp]

Meanwhile, back in southeastern Sacramento county, (not too terribly far from Rio Linda) Mr. & Mrs. Waspman are helping fellow FReeper Calif_Reaganite by working furiously on his Rancho Cordove Phone Bank to help him drown out two other less attractive (R's) in the June Primary election!!!

His biggest competitor is SuperRINO and former useless CONgressman and very rich RE developer*, Doug Ose and so far they're neck and neck so our man needs help!!! (*not that there's anything wrong with that)(grin)

We're not in his district but we're helpin him anyways! He's been neighboring district's Congressman Tom McClintock's Chief of Staff and is a dynomite CONSERVATIVE to the core!!!

So while not trying to divert attention from this super thread, we're hoping FReepers reading this thread here in the Crapitol of CA will make the effort to go to his site (www.igorbirman.com) and volunteer.

Maybe we'll meet-up and help duplicate McClintock's Mission to shrink government with another great FReeper's help!

[Flame Retardant]

The media tries to spin this as "people are coming around to support Obamacare", but other factors are more important based on my experience.

For instance, I've heard from at least three Republicans who are unenthusiastic about Cotton because of his position on government surveillance (defender of the status quo, against meaningful reform of the NSA and other alphabet-soup Big Brother agencies), but not a single one who has gotten one whit less hostile to Obamacare.