Posted on 04/10/2014 8:18:17 AM PDT by Kenny
On paper, Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) should be this cycle’s most endangered incumbent.
But rumors of his political death might have been premature.
Eight months from Election Day, the centrist Democrat is still neck and neck with or ahead of his GOP opponent in private and partisan polls. An independent poll this week showed Pryor up 3 points and a second on Thursday put him up 10 points, despite a sour national climate and $6 million in negative ads already spent against him.
Armed with a top recruit in freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, Republicans thought this was the year they would finally take down the centrist Democrat and complete the state’s Republican sweep that began in 2010.
Pryor, the son of a former governor and senator, is running for a third term in a state where President Obama took just 37 percent in 2012 and was even held to an embarrassing 58 percent against a perennial candidate in the Democratic primary.
ObamaCare remains even more unpopular than the president in Arkansas, putting more wind to the GOP sails.It’s easy to draw comparisons to the last midterm cycle, when the state’s other Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln was swept out of office in the GOP tidal wave, as Republicans also picked up two Arkansas House seats.
But Lincoln was never in as strong a position as Pryor. She faced a Democratic primary that bled her already thin campaign coffers. Essentially, her fate was sealed early on, before the national environment even worsened for Democrats. At this time in 2010, Lincoln was consistently down by at least double digits in most partisan and public polls. She never rebounded, losing to Republican John Boozman by 21 points.
Democrats have been arguing for months that they felt better about Pryor than even other vulnerable incumbents, privately noting they’ve never had a poll where he’s been down.
They’ve been quick to try to take the shine off Cotton, a 36-year-old, Harvard-educated Army veteran who is a freshman lawmaker.
Democrats are portraying him as overly ambitious, and have also honed in on his vote against the farm bill. Cotton is the only Republican in the state’s delegation who opposed the farm bill.
Two independent polls this week showed the Democratic tactics might be working, or at least stopping the bleeding.
On Thursday morning, a live-caller poll from Opinion Research Associates showed Pryor up 48 to 38 percent over Cotton — his largest lead yet.
A Talk Business Arkansas/Hendrix College nonpartisan poll showed Pryor leading Cotton, 46 to 43 percent. While that was within the survey’s margin of error, the Democratic senator actually saw an uptick from the 42 percent he had in October, even after a barrage of negative attacks.
Other numbers in that poll also give Democrats reason to smile. The new poll showed Pryor was 10 points ahead with women — a crucial demographic for Democrats and the reason the party has honed in on equal pay this week.
But Republicans had reason to be optimistic, too. The automated TB/Hendrix College poll likely skewed a bit too Democratic, and being under 50 percent is never a good sign for an incumbent with plenty of room for his challenger to grow. Plus, Cotton was leading independent voters by double-digits.
Still, in a midterm cycle that offers few rays of hope for Democrats, the Arkansas race is showing it’s far too soon to begin writing Pryor’s obituary.
“This race is not going to move that much, but it’s moving in the right direction,” said one national Democratic strategist.
This race was one of the earliest to engage. Neither Pryor nor Cotton have primary opponents, so the hits came early and often.
The Democrat was the first incumbent to go on the air with advertising way back in May, when he hit back at then-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg for criticizing his position on gun control.
So far, Cotton has had the help of more than $6 million in attack ads that have eviscerated Pryor. In comparison, Democratic outside groups have spent about $1.8 million hitting Cotton.
Democrats say they’re ready to build a field program essentially from scratch, and they hope the state’s competitive governor’s race will boost turnout in their favor, too.
And don’t be surprised to see former President Clinton, the state’s most famous politician, back in his home state early and often to boost Pryor and other Democrats up and down the ballot to mitigate his national party’s numbers.
Republicans argue that, as the race begins to coalesce, Cotton — and the state’s partisan tide — will overtake the incumbent. In such a red state, hits on Pryor’s vote for healthcare and ties to national Democrats will be especially salient for the GOP.
“This isn’t the same environment that Pryor ran in during 2002 and 2008. The ground has shifted beneath his feet,” said Cotton spokesman David Ray. “Voters are learning who Tom Cotton is, about his record of conservative leadership and his service to our country in the Army. As they learn more about him, they will gladly choose him to replace Sen. Pryor, who has simply been a rubber stamp for President Obama.”
If this race becomes more about the national environment, Pryor’s numbers are sure to quickly fall. But if the Democrat can keep the tide at bay and remind Arkansas whey they voted for him — and his father — in the first place, he might have a fighting shot yet.
“There is something happening here in Arkansas, and it’s nice that folks in D.C. are finally starting to see what we’ve been saying for months: Congressman Cotton is a fundamentally flawed candidate, and our case against him is already resonating with Arkansas voters,” said Pryor spokesman Erik Dorey. “This is going to be a hard-fought race, but we’re confident in our path to victory.”
This is totally opposite of how I thought this was going and Clinton hasn't even been there yet. Are we finally just outnumbered?
Sounds like the MSM has some inside scoop on their election fraud tactics.
No that’s not it.
Cotton doesn’t have the Conservative base very excited here. He’s a John McCain “Republican”
He doesn’t have a ton of momentum.. but he’s better than Pryor. Ugh.
He’s going to lose. 10 points ahead? Did they poll everyone at the abortion clinic? This is ridiculous. Pryor is going to get his a** handed to him by 6 points. I’ll say right now, if Pryor wins, then EVERY Dem wins, and there has been national fraud
Cotton is a moderate Republican at best.
There’s a reason Sarah Palin skipped over him when she went around the country endorsing people to become US Senators.
While running for the House, he had a Juan enforcement.
It'll be interesting to see the endorsements he obtains this year.
People in red states voting for a destructive Democrat because he supports a “farm bill”.
Wish I had not been watching that script play out over and over and over for the past thirty years.
The worst thing is how Pryor is a phony Christian. He waves the Bible to get votes then craps over it to support abortion and godless commies.
Screw him. Used to be folks like him were set in the stock.
Exactly.
Contrast Cotton’s effort with those of a MAN in neighboring Oklahoma.
TW Shannon was 37 POINTS down.. until Sarah endorsed him.. now he is in the single digits.
Then Mark Levin, Ben Carson and Senate Conservatives Fund Endorsed him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leading in some polls now.
You want Ted Cruz to have another ally in the Senate? Donate to TW. I know him personally and he’s the real deal.
TWSHANNON.COM
It’s interesting that Levin, et. al. don’t seem to talk about Cotton much.
Nope.
Cotton is a John McCain “Republican”
He has given them no reason to support him.
Amazing... I guess some women are somehow deluded into thinking they're not affected by the treachery of Obamacare.
Repubs will probably win the seats in WV, SD, MT, NC and maybe if all goes well without a major gaffe, AK. This one in AR is a little too doubtful right now.
Agitprop or is Arkansas really going to put the Obama soldier back in office?
Cotton wins this one, 55-45..
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