Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

What Russia Really Wants (Putin's End-Game In Ukraine Alert)
New York Times ^ | 03/04/2014 | Ruslan Pukhov

Posted on 03/04/2014 9:48:18 PM PST by goldstategop

That’s because Russia has a strong interest in nominally retaining Crimea as part of Ukraine. From the disintegration of the Soviet Union onward, Crimea, with its traditionally separatist leanings, was always a destabilizing factor. It served as a direct avenue of Russian pressure on Ukraine, and also guaranteed almost a million “pro-Russian” votes in Ukrainian elections, ensuring the dominance of the pro-Russian eastern half of the country over the nationalist western half.

If the Ukrainian nationalists had been smarter and more farsighted, they themselves would have advocated a renunciation of claims to Crimea in order to remove this needle in their side, but their desire for a Greater Ukraine has trumped sober political calculations.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: crimea; endgame; maidan; newyorktimes; ruslanpukhov; russia; ukraine; vladimirputin; yuliatymoshenko
Vladimir Putin does have an end-game in Ukraine: its making Ukraine's next government politically and personally bound to Russia. As Ruslan Pukhov points out, the Ukrainian nationalists should have been happy to slough off the pro-Moscow Crimea to Russia. As a result of their short-sightedness, Crimea will probably end up with enhanced autonomy and with more through pro-Russia domination of the political life of Ukraine than before the Maidan. Russia wants a Ukraine that recognizes its special status. If this theory is correct, Russia's President Putin can thwart the West without a single shot being fired. And that is because Putin looks at the big picture, something every one else appears to be missing. Whether that is in the cards, remains to be seen.
1 posted on 03/04/2014 9:48:19 PM PST by goldstategop
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

This is pretty good. I like it. I don’t think it’s all of it, but it definitely has the ring of truth. Besides, Putin is ex-KGB Soviet, and the USSR was all about the vassal state thing. So you’ve got to believe he’d be happy with an obedient vassal Ukraine, looking a pretty and democratic-like to the world, while he can give a twitch here and there to the vssal president’s you-know-whats whenever Russia had need of his obedience. Gotta love efficiency.

2 posted on 03/04/2014 9:53:08 PM PST by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Talisker

Russia much prefers a strong Ukrainian President to a weak and indecisive one. Putin has had a good working relationship with opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko when she served before as Ukraine’s Prime Minister. Of all the Ukrainian presidential candidates who are running, Moscow would prefer to see her elected since she recognizes the necessity of being on good terms with Russia.

3 posted on 03/04/2014 9:58:18 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
“Mr. Putin’s threat of invading Ukraine makes Ms. Tymoshenko the only national leader with the authority and capability to forge an agreement with Russia. Having made a string of the appropriate patriotic statements, Ms. Tymoshenko has already announced her readiness to talk to Mr. Putin “for Ukraine’s sake.” She is likely to return triumphant, having “stopped” the invasion of the “Russian horde,” and even with some Russian financial aid.”

The author is obviously an employee or agent of Ms. Tymoshenko. That is the whole purpose of the article, to her make her seem like a credible leader.

I am not an expert on the Ukraine but my understanding is that she failed miserably and has little if any support. Perhaps this is why Putin wants her in control. He wants her as a weak puppet that he can easily control.

4 posted on 03/04/2014 10:12:23 PM PST by detective
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Putin’s end game is to be on a Vegas stage singing, Back in the U.S.S.R. /sarcasm

5 posted on 03/04/2014 10:17:06 PM PST by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

The more I learn about the situation, and how things went down, the more I am coming down on the Russian side of this.

Yeah, Putin is an SOB. Yes he’s a corrupt SOB. Yes, Yanko was a corrupt SOB, too.

But he was right to move to stop things after Soro’s Open Society Institute and related NGO’s, likely with covert US help, destabilized Ukraine, just like they have done in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Syria.

There are direct Russian interests at stake, and Russia has the right by treaty to have troops in Crimea. If anything, Putin is at fault for not moving fast enough.

A weak and spineless US President isn’t helping things, nor is a Europe that sacrificed the Coal and Hydro Electric plants on the altar of Globo Warmin’/International Socialism, trading them for a dependence on Russian gas to stay out of the dark.

And don’t forget how big a role the Snowden Secrets are likely playing here, as well.

6 posted on 03/04/2014 10:20:05 PM PST by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Giving up a land mass to avoid a political thorn in the future is not thinking long term imho. Thats like saying, lets give up Texas, so Democrats will always win US national election

7 posted on 03/04/2014 10:23:35 PM PST by 4rcane
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: detective

Her support comes from the nationalist western half of the country. But she can reach out to the Russophone east and she is the only credible political figure who can win a nationwide election. The rest of the field are purely sectoral candidates.

Putin likes her personally and there is trust between them and both sides need good relations whether they like it or not. Ukraine’s destiny is bound to Russia’s and there are millions of ethnic Ukrainians in Russia just as there are millions of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and many have family on both sides of the divide.

8 posted on 03/04/2014 10:26:22 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: tcrlaf

All true.

Plus, being allowed to plunder Ukraine slows down the unavoidable collapse of the European Union welfare state.

When that happens, the European population will have to deal with the Islamisists the Eurocrats got in bed with. This is going to be nasty when it plays out, but the sooner it happens the better Europe (aside from members of the bureaucracy) will fare and the worse the Muslims will fare.

9 posted on 03/04/2014 10:28:10 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 4rcane

If those two million votes were gone, Ukrainian nationalists could control the country’s future. What they don’t realize is a Greater Ukraine is as much of a pipe dream as Russian nationalists dreams of a Greater Russia. As multinational societies, the two countries face the challenge of harmoniously integrating peoples of different cultures and languages into the core state.

10 posted on 03/04/2014 10:29:54 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

If this theory is correct, Russia’s President Putin can thwart the West without a single shot being fired
Well......maybe just one shot....right between Putin’s beady eyes.


Yep, Ukraine gets that billion from Kerry and they put a hit out on RuskieBoy. 100 million ought to do it. Yeah the Ruskies would get mad but what would their response be.....heheheheh.

11 posted on 03/04/2014 10:32:40 PM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, WIN LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
You seem to know more about the Ukraine than I do.

The article's conclusion:

“The net result of yet another Ukrainian revolution will be de facto Russian control of Crimea, and a Kiev government commercially and personally bound to Mr. Putin.”

The article endorses Ms. Tymoshenko and concludes that Putin will control the Ukraine in the future. Do you agree?

12 posted on 03/04/2014 11:01:03 PM PST by detective
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: detective

Yulia Timoshenko is a highly charismatic intelligent politician. She plays the part of Ukrainian woman (notice she wears her hair in a traditional braid)

The problem is she is corrupt and will be wound up in all kinds of deals with oligarchs

13 posted on 03/05/2014 3:26:13 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Your analysis is based upon the assumption that a plurality of Russians-in-Ukraine prefer integration into Russia vice Ukraine or autonomy. That assumption is patently false.

It is the same situation as Hitler’s annexation of Czechoslovakia. Invading on the pretense of popular support for integration.

14 posted on 03/05/2014 3:49:12 AM PST by Justa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Yulia is indeed the one person who can lead Ukraine and deal with both Russia (Putin) and the west. She is the right man for the job.

I have no problem with the so-called oligarchs, aka the rich. You cannot have a vibrant economy with some people becoming rich. The question always is whether they are rich because they are crony capitalists (AKA fascism) or because of free-market capitalists (AKA capitalism).

I agree that Russia might not want annexation or full independence for Crimea. What Russia wants is for Ukraine to join its proposed Eurasian trading bloc. In any case, Russia want Ukraine to provide Russia connections with European markets on a fair basis. Actually, Ukraine also wants to be the conduit for Russian trade with Europe.

Putin also wants to be perceived as a winner, as strong, as a nationalist. This is how he and his party win elections against the communists and ultra-nationalists of Russia. Putin and the All Russia Party is much better than the alternatives. There is a Social Democratic Party and a (recently formed) business-oriented free market-liberal party in Russia, but each of these is tiny. So, for the time being at least, this is a case of the devil you know being better than the devil you don’t.

15 posted on 03/05/2014 4:05:38 AM PST by Redmen4ever
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson