Modified #1: Karzai bugs out to Monaco to lie on the beach with scantily-clad infidel women and a boatload of cash - and the Talibs get their old offices in Kabul back, complete with indoor plumbing and satellite TV.
That was pretty much what I envisioned. Then he’ll either live the quiet life and enjoy his ill-gotten wealth or he’ll be a constant force on the international news circuit as some kind of authority on human rights or international interventions or some such crap.