Posted on 12/21/2013 4:13:41 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Mired in Fearpolitik: North Korea in 2014
[Sohn Gwang Joo Column ①]
Sohn Gwang Joo, Director, Daily NK Reunification Strategy Research Institute | 2013-12-21 00:12
What will become of the Kim Jong Eun regime?
How will circumstances in the North change over the course of the onrushing 2014? Will the internal situation remain stable, or not? Will Kim Jong Eun raise a solution to the nuclear issue in discussion with China, and will Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Eun have their first summit? Alternatively, will Pyongyang ignore the unified denuclearization demands of South Korea, Japan and the United States, moving instead toward a fourth nuclear test, a long-range missile test, or further provocations against the South?
The situation will probably not be clear and precise, and in the midst of the fog it will be tricky to find a foothold.
In the short term, Kim Jong Eun’s “politics of fear” will yield results. A new power elite featuring Choe Ryong Hae, Jo Yon Jun and Hwang Pyong Seo has reached the pinnacle of state power, and will provide support.
But which way will things go the longer this policy continues? Some things are obvious. First, the only ones who are free of fear are the Kim family; Jong Cheol, Yeo Jong, and Seol Song. These people have hidden influence; and will soon emerge into the power structure. Who else can Kim Jong Eun trust? Lest we should forget, he has already killed his uncle. There is nobody left outside his immediate family, and doubts will forever linger, even over the new power elite. Kim will have them under surveillance, and will grant only a limited degree of trust.
Three years before his passing, Kim Jong Il began to lay the physical groundwork for the secure succession of power to the next generation. In 2010 and 2011 he visited China three times, dragging his ailing self all the way to Yangzhou to try and reconfirm the “bond of blood” between China and North Korea through an audience with former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin. The execution of Jang Song Taek thus marks a stark deviation from the foundations set during Kim’s lifetime.
The survival of the stable regime that Kim Jong Il maneuvered into place at that time was based upon maximizing the value of Pyongyang’s relationship with China. To improve those relations, Kim Jong Il began to shift away from the military-first line that had been maintained for the previous 15 years, and onto a line that put the Party first. This fact is evidenced by the results of the 3rd Party Delegates’ Conference, held on September 28th, 2010.
Aside from sister Kyong Hui and her husband Jang Song Taek, who had raised the young Kim Jong Eun, Kim Jong Il brought in Choe Ryong Hae to steward the Kim household and control the power of the military. Meanwhile, technocrats and professional bureaucrats who would not dare to covet the power of the Kim family were positioned to loyally assist Kim Jong Eun; people such as Kim Yong Nam, Pak Pong Ju, Pak To Chun, Kim Ki Nam, Choe Tae Bok and Kim Yang Gon.
And yet, in spite of all this legwork and power structure craftsmanship, Kim Jong Eun simply killed Jang Song Taek, the bedrock of his power, after just two years. Much as Kim Jong Il may have warned his son against placing excessive trust in Jang, if the elder Kim were alive today what would he have to say about this state of affairs? Like Kim Jong Il getting himself needlessly bogged down in the mire of the 2009 currency redenomination, so Kim Jong Eun has recklessly sliced open the artery of his own power.
In 2014, the power of Kim Jong Eun’s “fearpolitik” will become all the more evident. The psychological pressure on the Party, military and people will persist. As, of course, will the investigation, detention and closed-door execution of so-called Jang Song Taek faction.
(To be continued…)
P!
A large portion of my family lived under the horrors of Polish communism, but living under the horrors of North Korean communism is incomprehensible.
N. Korea even shut itself from other communist countries. That says volumes about the nature of NK regime.
If the were to attack we could settle the issue ENTIRELY within 2 hours.
Target rich environment.
North Korea’s the creepiest country in the world - this new ‘politics of fear’ will cement that place in history.
Its not even communism, which the North Korean regime has scrapped.
The regime is an absolute monarchy held together by family ties and the army. Its fascism under an East Asian label.
Even the Chinese Communists are embarrassed by the crudity of the North Korean regime and its all-embracing personality cult.
That is communism, that is what communism becomes
This just in...
A&E Network replacing “Duck Dynasty” with “Kim Jong and Friends”.
Caliph Baraq to make guest appearance with Dennis Rodman in initial episode.
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