Daines currently leads by 17 points, and the Lt. Gov. is not exactly an unknown like the dim’s candidate in South Dakota. Being a sitting interim senator won’t put many points on the board. Jeff Chiesa’s name recognition in New Jersey didn’t really change when he was made a senator.
Obamacare will sink the dem’s in Montana, and I predict they lose this race by double digits. Their track record of holding onto red state seats when some dynastic tool dies or retires, is poor. They’ve had some good luck in North Dakota and West Virginia in the past, but beyond that, once a dinosaur like Baucus goes, the seat will usually go to the ideological leaning of the state.
Besides, Daines for all his faults, is not Denny Rehberg. He won’t be taking anything for granted, and he’s a pretty savvy politician.
No Republican has ever held this seat, it has been in Democrat hands since senator's have been popularly elected.
Montana is a state that is heavily dependent on Federal dollars for schools, hospitals, highways, agricultural subsidies, plus the 40% of the folks who depend on Social Security, Military and Federal Retirement benefits.
The voters in Montana are going to vote for a Senator who keeps the Federal Dollars coming into the state...