Skip to comments.BLS, We Have A Problem: Polled Unemployment Soars To March 2012 Levels
Posted on 08/22/2013 7:51:00 AM PDT by Perdogg
Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed full-time for an employer, without seasonal adjustment. Due to the lack of Arima-X 'magic' the results are specifically not comparable to the BLS data, but, as the chart below suggests, the correlation is high. What is most worrying about the latest data is the rapid rise in both unemployment and underemployment that the Gallup poll finds (to 8.9% unemployment and 17.9% underemployment. Unemployment rates have jumped notably in the last month to their highest in 13 months. Will the Fed 'allow' this data to filter into the BLS data and 'avoid the Taper' or are there non-economic reasons (G-20, deficits, technicals, sentiment) that the Fed needs to SepTaper.
In before “unexpected”
I am sooo confused, back last October BEFORE the election the economy was soaring, everyone had a job, health care was coming and cheap too, the world was at peace with Obama winning the WOT, and Obama was protecting our privacy.
Every thing was fixed.
Now after the election all hell is breaking out, everything going bad. How could this be?
Trend since Oct 12 is essentially up. This makes sense as many employers are cutting back on their workforce due to Obamacare.
My take on this is that Gallup did a massive (30,000 person) poll intentionally to put the straight edge to the BLS’ lies. Now, Gallup has outed the BLS and the jig is up. The lies have been made public.
The corrupt administration and the corrupt MSM propaganda arm of the DNC have been exposed.
9/6 is going be to real interesting...
My sense is that the democrats do not want the economy to tank before the 2014 election.
If the Fed goes ahead with pulling back on the QE, then the economy will tank.
The Fed bases that decision on the improving job numbers.
We all have suspected the Obama BLS of playing with the labor numbers.
Suddenly jobs numbers are bad. Will this make the FED reconsider any QE decisions and continue with their 85billion a month buy?
To suspect them of playing with the BLS numbers is a bit of a tin-foil hat on my part, but if the BLS numbers come in the same as Gallup’s, then I’d be curious to see if I could figure out if the numbers were fudged for political purposes.
Obama would need to Fed to reconsider until at least the time when House Republicans might refuse to increase the debt ceiling....January or February. Then he could blame bad jobs numbers on them.
Booosh did it, or at least the republicans did it. Or was it the Tea Partiers? Wait a minute while I consult the Democrats Thesaurus of Faults & Accusations. (I stole one from my attorney sister in law in Minneapolis.)
They been praising GWB much lately, a pattern Coulter described a book she wrote about 10 years ago,.
Plus so many Bush appointees have come out as being libs lately, like Nicole Wallace om Morning Joe.
Yep, unemployment will show an uptick (Bureau of Lies and Statistics manipulation) so 0zer0 can blame the Sequester (which was his idea), but convince the lamestream media to blame the Repubs. The Dumbcrats will all talk in unison on how the Repubs are killing the economy with the sequester. This will do 2 things. Force the Fed to end talk of tapering the $85B in monthly Treasury Purchases, PLUS allow the Dumbcrats and there State Controlle Media to champion raising the debt limit without any more spending cuts. The rally cry from the Dumbcrats will be Amnesty and Stimulus. Bet on it. The result will be unending stagflation. No job growth and raising prices for fuel and food (conveniently not counted in inflation calculations) but felt by every consumer. We will officially re-enter recession in 2014 Q1 and both sides will blame the other for it. That will be the theme for 2014. The other guy did it. The voters will decide who to blame.
The GOP still seems to have a pretty good shot at hurting Dems in 2014 election, short a huge blunder of two.
Obama’s approval down to mid 40s% meaning Dems will largely stay home with little he can do to help his side.
2016 wont be anything like 2014 but its a long way off/.
I hope I will be able to get off the number by then. ;)
The acronym ARIMA stands for “Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average.” If you look up the details, there’s a lot of smoothing and computation going on. I would guess that the model that comes out of the BLS statistics doesn’t respond to quick changes.
That begs the question of whether the Gallup survey is accurate and signifying impending trouble, or is measuring a true blip that is the result of an undiagnosed cause. In a few months, the divergence should be reduced, either because BLS catches up, or Gallup’s result was an outlier.
Ah yes, more rants from good ol' Tyler Durden. People who don't do numbers like him when he helps 'em gripe about those of us that handle numbers just fine thank you. Some hate the headline unemployment rate's being the #unemployed/workforce. If we're wondering about the job hunters who're not in the workforce then we can get that from the BLS too:
The facts are out there, we just have to let them in, and the BLS isn't the problem, Marxism is.
Gallup in NSA right? Some seasonality but this is a big jump. The MOW is just +/-1% with a sample size of 30,000.