ping
In before “unexpected”
I am sooo confused, back last October BEFORE the election the economy was soaring, everyone had a job, health care was coming and cheap too, the world was at peace with Obama winning the WOT, and Obama was protecting our privacy.
Every thing was fixed.
Now after the election all hell is breaking out, everything going bad. How could this be?
The sequester??
Trend since Oct 12 is essentially up. This makes sense as many employers are cutting back on their workforce due to Obamacare.
My take on this is that Gallup did a massive (30,000 person) poll intentionally to put the straight edge to the BLS’ lies. Now, Gallup has outed the BLS and the jig is up. The lies have been made public.
The corrupt administration and the corrupt MSM propaganda arm of the DNC have been exposed.
My sense is that the democrats do not want the economy to tank before the 2014 election.
If the Fed goes ahead with pulling back on the QE, then the economy will tank.
The Fed bases that decision on the improving job numbers.
We all have suspected the Obama BLS of playing with the labor numbers.
Suddenly jobs numbers are bad. Will this make the FED reconsider any QE decisions and continue with their 85billion a month buy?
To suspect them of playing with the BLS numbers is a bit of a tin-foil hat on my part, but if the BLS numbers come in the same as Gallup’s, then I’d be curious to see if I could figure out if the numbers were fudged for political purposes.
Obama would need to Fed to reconsider until at least the time when House Republicans might refuse to increase the debt ceiling....January or February. Then he could blame bad jobs numbers on them.
Rather suspicious.
The acronym ARIMA stands for “Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average.” If you look up the details, there’s a lot of smoothing and computation going on. I would guess that the model that comes out of the BLS statistics doesn’t respond to quick changes.
That begs the question of whether the Gallup survey is accurate and signifying impending trouble, or is measuring a true blip that is the result of an undiagnosed cause. In a few months, the divergence should be reduced, either because BLS catches up, or Gallup’s result was an outlier.
Ah yes, more rants from good ol' Tyler Durden. People who don't do numbers like him when he helps 'em gripe about those of us that handle numbers just fine thank you. Some hate the headline unemployment rate's being the #unemployed/workforce. If we're wondering about the job hunters who're not in the workforce then we can get that from the BLS too:
The facts are out there, we just have to let them in, and the BLS isn't the problem, Marxism is.
Gallup in NSA right? Some seasonality but this is a big jump. The MOW is just +/-1% with a sample size of 30,000.