The Economist: Territorial divisions are deepening, regardless of regime and rebel advances
Posted on 07/28/2013 5:13:34 AM PDT by SunkenCiv
The Kurdish militia captured the border town of Ras al Ayn on Sunday, which had been under rebel control since last November. A day later, the United States said it was "very concerned" at reports that the militia was about to declare self-rule in northern Syria. "Such a declaration is highly provocative, as it will certainly exacerbate tensions between Arabs and Kurds," Jen Psaki, a State Department spokeswoman, said Monday.
Turkey, which embarked on a broad peace process in March with Kurdish militants at home, has warned that it won't tolerate an autonomous Kurdish province across the Syrian border. This week, the Turkish army warned that it had taken "all necessary precautions against threats across the border" and the deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, implied that the establishment of a de facto Kurdish entity in northern Syria might put Syria's territorial integrity in jeopardy.
"We have said that we are not going to accept any de facto entities that would be established in Syria by any ethnic groups or sects," he said.
The fear is that a Kurdish entity in Syria would revive demands for a Kurdish nation made up of predominantly Kurdish areas of Turkey, Syria and Iran in combination with the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq.
The other risk in the fighting is that if the Nusra Front prevails, it might be able, with the area's mineral resources, to set up a self-sustaining autonomous al Qaida state.
(Excerpt) Read more at mcclatchydc.com ...
Muslim on Muslim. Pass the beer and popcorn, please.
Syria Kurds expel jihadists, seize weapons: NGO
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3045346/posts
War in Syria inspires Kurdish unity
Northern Syria sees battles between Kurds and al-Qaeda-inspired groups, as Kurds prepare for election and autonomy.
Ece Goksedef Last Modified: 27 Jul 2013 17:15
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/07/2013727161533579785.html
Turkey warns Syrian Kurds against ‘dangerous’ moves
By Humeyra Pamuk and Gulsen Solaker
Additional reporting by Seyhmus Cakan and Ayla Jean Yackley
Writing by Nick Tattersall
Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Mike Collett-White
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/26/us-syria-crisis-kurds-idUSBRE96P09820130726
If there were only two of them left on the planet, and butt naked, they’d start throwing rocks or haymakers at each other.
Thanks for the inset map and the post
I read earlier where the rebels there were actually al-queida. So this perhaps is a good thing.
Kurds have always helped us and never caused any problems to our interests. I’d be in favor of helping Kurds take over MORE territory in the ME.
Al-Nusra is aligned with al-Qaeda; Syrian rebel groups are all over the map geographically and politically.
My pleasure, I was glad I found it.
I read earlier where the rebels there were actually al-queida. So this perhaps is a good thing.
++++++++++++++
I think it is so you should expect to see negative comments from the always on the wrong side Obama Administration.
AFAIK, the Kurds have always been the good guys in that region. They are a threat to Turkey because of the large Kurdish population there that would rather live in a Kurdish state. Same situation in Iraq actually. So grabbing a piece of Syria in the middle of a civil war makes all the sense in the world - if you are a Kurd.
/bingo
Screw the Turks, we should be using every under handed, dirty devious trick in the book to help establish a Kurdish autonomous region in Syria to be linked eventually with the one in Iraq and one someday to be established in Turkey.
The Kurds in Iraq have been good allies and have shown discipline, patience and perseverance in pursuit of a state, as well as moderation and respect for democratic norms in the area under their control, the Kurds have demonstrated they are capable and deserving of a state of their own, not unlike the Irish after The Troubles, taking the half loaf on offer and biding their time between the establishment of the Free State in 1922 and effective independence in 1936 or ‘38.
The Israelis followed a similar path, accepting the rump state offered by the UN at Partition in ‘47; sans Jersusalem, the Negev and the Huleh area in the north. It was only the unsuccessful Arab appeal to arms and Haganah competence and courage that gave Israel the ‘48 Armistice Line now known as the pre- ‘67 borders.
In all three cases the states aborning acted with reason and discipline.
IRA men that fought the new government and continued killing English or Irish police, soldiers and politicians went before Irish firing squads.
Similarly, Ben-Gurion’s government tried Menachem Begin’s associates for terror and running guns when they rejected peace.
The emergence of a US sponsored Kurdish state would go far too toward expunging the US record of using them as pawns and then betraying them what, at least twice since WWII, to the Shah and to Saddam.
It’s been almost 100 years since the politicians at Versailles rejected Kurdish appeals for a state because it conflicted with their own imperial ambitions.
A Kurdistan means dismembering three existing failed or failing states: Turkey with their Great Power/Great Game pretensions in Central Asia and steady slide towards Islamist tyranny; Iraq newly armed by us and falling into a wholly predictable chaos under an inept Shia government lacking the stabilizing effect of the troops Obongo elected not to station there and finally Syria, facing a continuing bloody Arab fascist or bloody Islamist ruled future.
The new state will need friends, Kurds aren’t Arabs, they’ve shown this by the competence with which they’ve managed their affairs.
The new Kurdistan will be natural allies of Israel and ourselves, in need of sponsors and on guard against the irredentist ambitions of their neighbors.
I can see a Kurdish/Alawite/Christian alliance dominating the area north of Israel and frustrating Persian plans.
Kurdistan should be an independent nation, and the Kurdish territory includes chunks of Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Turkey has just one option left, and that is alliance with the non-PKK factions of Kurdish independence; whether the Erdogan Islamofascist regime takes that option remains to be seen.
The probable course will be to appear to be moving in that direction, stringing the Kurds along until such time as the crisis abates. The trouble with that approach will probably be that, the crisis isn’t going to abate for years at least. Turkey needs to have one friendly neighbor, but isn’t going to have one — the fallback position is to have a symbiotic relationship with a new state, Kurdistan, which is also surrounded by enemies.
Syrian Christians need to arm themselves and defend themselves. If they’re not willing to do that, they’re their own worst enemies. A Christian Syria allied with the Christians in Lebanon (Lebanese Christians are the largest single religious minority in Lebanon, and there is no religious majority) would have to result from a long period of muzzie civil war in the rest of the country, with Syria’s Christians maintaining their own enclave in the meanwhile, perhaps backed up against Lebanon and the Med.
Screw the Alawites.
They’re locked in a death struggle with their sworn enemies, other muzzies.
The Kurds are different, and worthy of some respect. I say this because during the time of Saddam, the Kurds took to sending their best students to study overseas. And they did.
After Saddam, when these now *very* educated Kurds came home, the Kurdish people did something extraordinary. They put the learned Kurds *in charge*.
This first made a splash when “Kurdish spokesmen” appeared on international and US TV, and were very well spoken, logical and persuasive.
Then, with the fall of Saddam and the violent occupation in the South, the Kurdish territories in northern Iraq were for the most part very quiet, outside of the sounds of construction equipment and business. They developed their territory in record time, and soon were Turkey’s biggest trading partner after Europe.
Right now, with significant Kurdish communities in northern Syria, Turkey, and Iran, the Kurds have wisely taken to playing it cool. They have not talked of a “greater Kurdistan”, though lots of other people have; and they have gone out of their way to not make enemies.
However, “greater Kurdistan” is their dream.
Now, with northern Syria pretty much out of the fray, there is likely a *lot* of back and forth between them and northern Iraq. But all kept very discreet. They realize that what Turkey objects to is a “de jure” declaration of a unified Kurdistan.
If they instead have “de facto” (in fact) unity, that just does not appear on the maps, Turkey can probably live with it. Thus the northern Syrian Kurds will likely push for autonomy within Syria much like they have in Iraq.
The economist article is inline with much of the good reporting (not MSM reporting which just has Assad vs. Rebels). I somewhat disagree with this post because Turkey now may not be opposed to Kurdish state. They have made resolution with the Kurds in Turkey and can use the relationship to extend influence into the greater middle east. But as with Turkey it is the Army in the background which may have a different opinion of Kurdish State than that of the Islamist in political control.
OK re the Alawites, I’m not invested, their territorial base seems to favor a Christian/Druze/Alawite grouping, I hadn’t considered the Lebanese Christians, that would certainly give the enclave some depth as well as access to the sea.
I’m more in favor of the Kurds and Christians in Syria along with the Druze anyways, but if alliances can be formed to help secure Israel’s security and frustrate Iranian ambitions while protecting minorities in Syria I’m in favor.
My model is along the lines of the taifa kingdoms in Spain, petty states with shifting ties based on the balance of power.
Here’s a link to a June 3rd Asia Times times story about the Turkish economy and demographics posted here on FR by another poster.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-02-030613.html
Always appreciative of your efforts with the GGG ping list too, thanks.
Your post reminded me of an infamous comment from Kissinger before a House select committee in 1975 regarding the betrayal of the Kurds. In secret session Kissinger testified to the commission about
the U.S. decision to forsake the Kurds to their
bloody fate. Dr. Kissinger told the committee that, “covert action should not be confused with missionary work.”
BTW, thanks for the informative post.
Thanks for the kind remarks!
The Druze are flexible in their alliances (to say the least; Israeli Druze serve in the IDF), very pragmatic — but they live in fortified camps and compounds, so they don’t have to beg to live all the time.
I don’t think the Kurds and Syrians would be a good fit, but regardless, until Middle Eastern Christians stop trying to rely on the kindness of strangers and stand up for themselves, they’ll always be victims and pawns.
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