His prediction was NEAR PERFECT.
In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and after Florida has been called for Obama in Nov. 2012, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.
FROM THIS SITE:
Nate Silver was SPOT ON.
The Top Five Pollsters in 2012 (After Nate Silver):
1. Investor’s Business Daily wins the most accurate polling data for 2012
2. Google – came in a close second
3. The Mellman Group, led by Mark Mellman, shined again this year in third place
4. RAND Corp., a non-profit research group, came in fourth.
5. CNN finished out the top 5
Other notables
6. Reuters – just out of the top five
11. Quinnipiac – middle of the pack for one of the high profile polls
12. Marist
19. Zogby
Who Were the Worst Pollsters in 2012?
Rasumussen
American Research
Mason-Dixon
Gallup was dead last
“Silver concluded that the “best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a GOP pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats”
I guess Dred Scott must be running for the Senate and the Pubs will end up with 50 3/5 seats according to Silver.
“The GOP, which holds 46 seats in the Senate, likely will lose New Jersey’s special election in October to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according to Silver.”
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is Christie’s fault. He could have appointed a conservative not due for election for well after 2014. Instead it probably will go Dem, according to Silver.
Thanks CC. Don’t to forget to hug your obama doll before you go to sleep tonight.
I just hope the GOP doesn’t nominate idiots (Akin and Mourdock) or hopeless candidates (Sharon Angle) who piss away races they should win.
In 2010 it was Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, and Delaware. Yeah, Castle was mostly worthless but he might have cast a good vote once in a while.
In 2012 it was Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin, Montana, North Dakota, and Florida.
The GOP should already have at least 56 seats. At a minimum, the GOP should pick candidates who don’t fall into obvious abortion-trap questions from a hostile media.
He dead wrong about the WI Gov recall .
Dead wrong about Rick Scott losing.
He was dead wrong the GOP taking the House and at he last second change his analysis because he knew it was pure propaganda .
But, He is an Dedicated Obama bot who got insider information about 2008 from the Obama bot campaign people.
Fraud.
“even though seats in Kentucky and Georgia might be vulnerable”
Don’t you believe it about GA. Saxby Chambliss’ seat will be filled by a conservative republican hopefully Paul Broun.
I think this guy, Silver is a punk. But, you got to give him credit for his forecasting in 2012. Hopefully he’s right on this.
Unfortunately not even Silver can predict a Mourdock or an Akin. A pick up of seats in a virtual certainty but control of the senate is not.