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June Payrolls +195K Much Higher Than Expected (7.6%); Underemployment Rate Soars To 14.3%
Zero Hedge ^ | 07.05.13

Posted on 07/05/2013 5:36:41 AM PDT by Perdogg

So much for any doubts about a September taper: with the street expecting a 165K NFP number for June, the actual print of 195K following an upward revised May print of 195K as well, means the September flow fade is now virtually assured. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 7.6% despite expectations of a drop to 7.5%, although the real action was in the underemployment rate which exploded from 13.8% to 14.3%.

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 182,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities. (See table B-1.)

Leisure and hospital ity added 75,000 jobs in June. Monthly job growth in this industry has averaged 55,000 thus far in 2013, almost twice the average gain of 30,000 per month in 2012. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to expand, increasing by 52,000 in June. Employment in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry also continued to trend up in June (+19,000).

Employment in professional and business services rose by 53,000 in June. Job gains occurred in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+10,000). Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.

Retail trade employment increased by 37,000 in June. Within retail trade, employment increased by 9,000 in building material and garden supply stores and by 8,000 in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Employment in wholesale trade continued to trend up (+11,000).

Health care continued to add jobs in June, with a gain of 20,000. Within the industry, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000). A gain of 5,000 jobs in hospitals followed a loss of 8,000 jobs in May.

Employment in financial activities rose by 17,000 in June, with most of the increase occurring in credit intermediation (+6,000) and in insurance carriers and related activities (+6,000).

Federal government employment continued to trend down in June (-5,000) and has declined by 65,000 over the past 12 months.

Employment in most other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, showed little change in June.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in June at 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $24.01. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 51 cents, or 2.2 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $20.14. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.

More shortly.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: 0bama; abortion; date; deathpanels; economy; man; mcjobs; obama; obamacare; unemployment; zerocare
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1 posted on 07/05/2013 5:36:41 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind; Wyatt's Torch

ping


2 posted on 07/05/2013 5:38:51 AM PDT by Perdogg (Cruz-Paul 2016)
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To: Perdogg

LOL! Just saw the Miami media try and spin this in Obama’s favor!


3 posted on 07/05/2013 5:41:04 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: All


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4 posted on 07/05/2013 5:41:36 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Perdogg

Overall a positive report. U6 increasing is commensurate with the uptick in labor force participation rate. I will post some charts when FRED updates the data :-)


5 posted on 07/05/2013 5:45:53 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Perdogg
Oh, Joy! Bring on the lobsters and champagne in celebration of this glorious victory by our esteemed leadership.
6 posted on 07/05/2013 5:47:16 AM PDT by JPG (Obama Does Egypt.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Yes, and I should mention the +70,000 net revisions to April and May— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) July 5, 2013


7 posted on 07/05/2013 5:49:39 AM PDT by Perdogg (Cruz-Paul 2016)
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To: Perdogg; All

I wonder how much of these jobs are part of the hospitality industry???


8 posted on 07/05/2013 5:51:08 AM PDT by KevinDavis (Only losers like to win by losing.)
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To: KevinDavis

Leisure and hospital ity added 75,000 jobs in June


9 posted on 07/05/2013 5:57:34 AM PDT by Perdogg (Cruz-Paul 2016)
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To: Perdogg
This report is solidifying the Fed Taper scenario and bonds are plummeting. 10Y UST:


10 posted on 07/05/2013 5:57:47 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Perdogg
Here is NFP and UE3 since 1980 (chart from FactSet)


11 posted on 07/05/2013 6:03:17 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Perdogg

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Only under Obama is 7.6% considered good.

12 posted on 07/05/2013 6:03:17 AM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: Perdogg

Employment in most other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, showed little change in June.*********

That’s the problem with this report. Disposable incomes based on the first quarters numbers and since are falling at about 9% per year. That’s horrendous.

The average workweek is contracting and and there are no jobs in heavy industry which are the jobs that pay. Welcome to the fast food recovery.


13 posted on 07/05/2013 6:03:32 AM PDT by bereanway
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To: Perdogg

@JimPethokoukis - But using Goldman Sachs estimates that subtract demographics, 9.1% rate is more in the ballpark


14 posted on 07/05/2013 6:04:35 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Innovative

Try this link for BLS:

http://www.bls.gov/data/


15 posted on 07/05/2013 6:08:03 AM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: bereanway; All

Well I’m in IT and there are jobs in the IT field..


16 posted on 07/05/2013 6:08:10 AM PDT by KevinDavis (Only losers like to win by losing.)
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To: Perdogg
from a different article:

Many of the new jobs were part time. The number of Americans who said they were working part-time but would prefer full-time work jumped 322,000 to 8.2 million. That's the most in eight months.

And you wonder why Obama just threw Obamacare under the bus?

17 posted on 07/05/2013 6:14:37 AM PDT by RugerMini14
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To: Perdogg

Isn’t 200,000 considered the break-even point?


18 posted on 07/05/2013 6:15:42 AM PDT by PLMerite (Shut the Beyotch Down! Burn, baby, burn!)
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To: KevinDavis

Do you live in India?.............


19 posted on 07/05/2013 6:16:21 AM PDT by Red Badger (Want to be surprised? Google your own name......Want to have fun? Google your friend's names........)
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To: Red Badger; All

Nope.. I live in Illinois.. It depends on the skills that you have.. I seem to have the right skills.


20 posted on 07/05/2013 6:22:04 AM PDT by KevinDavis (Only losers like to win by losing.)
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To: RugerMini14

Yeah, that’s the same thing I was reading in another article on ZH:

In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000.********

So the quantity of jobs is passable, but if you dig a little deeper you find job quality is awful. Lots of low wage, part time jobs hence the continuing collapse in disposable incomes.


21 posted on 07/05/2013 6:23:40 AM PDT by bereanway
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To: Perdogg

Any way to make Congress and president part time?


22 posted on 07/05/2013 6:24:59 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: KevinDavis

In IT as well but not really here in SC. There probably are for those “vital” H1Bs that are quietly hired.


23 posted on 07/05/2013 6:28:50 AM PDT by wally_bert (There are no winners in a game of losers. I'm Tommy Joyce, welcome to the Oriental Lounge.)
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To: bereanway

Context: At 195k jobs a month, US would not return to prerecession employment levels until 2021 - Brookings— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) July 5, 2013


24 posted on 07/05/2013 6:29:41 AM PDT by Perdogg (Cruz-Paul 2016)
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To: xzins
"Any way to make Congress and president part time?"

He is. Can you imagine the damage if he worked full time?

25 posted on 07/05/2013 6:33:29 AM PDT by Tula Git (There IS a coup in America and it's on track and almost complete.)
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To: wally_bert

That is why I keep on learning new skills..


26 posted on 07/05/2013 6:33:49 AM PDT by KevinDavis (Only losers like to win by losing.)
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To: Tula Git

Be doesn’t take evil breaks. Lol


27 posted on 07/05/2013 6:39:26 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: KevinDavis

Same here. I never turn away a chance to learn anything new.


28 posted on 07/05/2013 6:45:50 AM PDT by wally_bert (There are no winners in a game of losers. I'm Tommy Joyce, welcome to the Oriental Lounge.)
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To: Perdogg
Leisure & Hospitality (+75,000) - summer hiring (resorts, vacations spots, amusement parks, summer camp counselors, etc.)

Credit Intermediation (+6,000) - people falling behind on their debts due to no job(s) or underemployment

Temporary Help Services (+10,000) - lack of permanent jobs available

If anyone in this Administration (or the MSM - but I repeat myself) tries to put a positive spin on these June numbers, I ain't buying it!

29 posted on 07/05/2013 6:46:27 AM PDT by mellow velo (Oxymorons: jumbo shrimp, rap music, liberal think-tank)
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To: Perdogg
Full-time employment dropped by an astounding 240,000.

This is what the administration saw coming and pushed back ZerOcare to 2015.

30 posted on 07/05/2013 6:50:12 AM PDT by cookcounty (IRS = Internal Revenge Service.)
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To: cookcounty

Plummeting full-time jobs:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000


31 posted on 07/05/2013 6:52:21 AM PDT by cookcounty (IRS = Internal Revenge Service.)
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To: Perdogg
422,000 jobs were "estimated" into existence in June via the Birth/Death Model.
Today, businesses are not replacing people who die or retire. They're cutting back instead. These jobs do not exist.

This is how they come up with the numbers. They assume the number of people that "should" be hired in a booming economy and add that to the numbers, rather than count the real number actually hired.

These numbers mean nothing. Take away all the fictitious numbers, add those grossly underemployed or unemployed, and this country is in big, BIG trouble.

I also think the bond market crash is starting, too.

Hope. Change.

32 posted on 07/05/2013 6:53:24 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: mellow velo
Leisure & Hospitality (+75,000) - summer hiring (resorts, vacations spots, amusement parks, summer camp counselors, etc.)
33 posted on 07/05/2013 6:54:13 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: concerned about politics

The bond market is reacting to strong results which will result in the fed tapering it’s asset purchases.


34 posted on 07/05/2013 6:55:09 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Perdogg
Context: At 195k jobs a month, US would not return to prerecession employment levels until 2021 - Brookings— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) July 5, 2013

This fall the economy is going to crash back to the late 2009 levels. Be prepared for this.

35 posted on 07/05/2013 6:55:59 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: Wyatt's Torch
IMF Fears Risks From 'Slippage' in Italy
36 posted on 07/05/2013 6:59:53 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: concerned about politics
This fall the economy is going to crash back to the late 2009 levels. Be prepared for this.

Can I ask based on what? In 2008 the catalyst was pretty obvious (collapse of the derivatives market related to mortgage debt and the subsequent freezing of credit markets). What is that catalyst now? Thanks.

37 posted on 07/05/2013 7:11:04 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: RugerMini14

And you wonder why Obama just threw Obamacare under the bus?


Libs claiming the GOP created obbbammmacare.


38 posted on 07/05/2013 7:11:19 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: KevinDavis

Skill level is dependent in all fields, I just received a new job my field of endeavor does not provide what would be called a promotion. I had to apply for and interview for a new job at a more senior level. However, I have a Graduate degree and 34 years of experience. People like myself are generally looking at around 3 - 4% unemployment. I have turned down jobs in the last year in part because of pay levels and I am too close to retirement to take on a high stress new career type job. The problem with this report is the part time work which I suspect is a lot of summer jobs. In June schools let out and students are looking for work, graduates need something until they get hired full time. This is not such a great report although it will be spun as great news. We are not even breaking even at this point, and to recover fully we need a sustained level of about 3K new jobs monthly. We may soon look like France with more part time workers, high tax rate and immigrant riots as people begin fighting over resources in the urban areas.


39 posted on 07/05/2013 7:12:32 AM PDT by OldGoatCPO
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To: bereanway

It’s more accurately the Obamacare recovery.
They replaced 1 50 hr/wk worker with 2 25hr/wk workers.

Hiring should go down for a while with the delay in the mandate.


40 posted on 07/05/2013 7:13:47 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: Perdogg
FRED finally updated their data. Here is participation rate:


41 posted on 07/05/2013 7:15:39 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Perdogg
People have been asking about industry employment:

Manufacturing:

Hospitality:

Government:

Construction:

Retail:

Mining and Logging:


42 posted on 07/05/2013 7:23:01 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Impeachment File on Benghazi Coward “B. Hussein Obama,” formerly known as Barry Soetoro, a Legal Citizen of the Sovereign Nation of Indonesia.


43 posted on 07/05/2013 7:26:43 AM PDT by Graewoulf (Traitor John Roberts' Commune-Style Obama'care' violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Note when Piglosi and her gang of RATS took over the Congress - Jan 2007.
44 posted on 07/05/2013 7:53:46 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Cheerio

I wish that were the direct cause. The meltdown was already starting. Now Barney Frank taking over the banking committee and Maxine Waters on Financial Services completely missed the boat on Fannie and the banks so that didn’t help. But the dye was already cast bu that point.


45 posted on 07/05/2013 7:58:53 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Perdogg

46 posted on 07/05/2013 8:01:13 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Thanks for posting all the charts.

That bright red line for the 2007 recession is VERY telling.

Let’s see... wasn’t that recession Bush’s fault?


47 posted on 07/05/2013 8:10:57 AM PDT by upchuck (To the faceless, jack-booted government bureaucrat who just scanned this post: SCREW YOU!)
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To: Perdogg

Is it just me, or is this month’s “larger” 28 gram chocolate ration considerably less satisfying than last month’s “smaller” 45 gram ration?


48 posted on 07/05/2013 9:09:10 AM PDT by TArcher ("TO SECURE THESE RIGHTS, governments are instituted among men" -- Does that still work?)
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To: KevinDavis

In my area of southwest Colo., tourism/hospitality is important. But the high gas prices are keeping the RV traffic down.


49 posted on 07/05/2013 9:10:55 AM PDT by laplata (Liberals don't get it. Their minds have been stolen.)
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To: Perdogg
it feels like 20 percent unemployment here.
50 posted on 07/05/2013 9:31:53 AM PDT by Drawn7979
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