Putting MT on a “GOP pickup” list always seems to fail us.
MT and ND were both very close, and could easily have gone the other way. I think we could have won MT and ND last year by “nationalizing” those elections, i.e., by sending in Paul Ryan to campaign with our candidates.
WI - Tommy Thompson lost, but so did Romney-Ryan. Same thing in quite a few other purple states.
MO - Our candidate wasn’t up to it. Ditto IN.
2014 is a midterm election, with a different turnout model. The Obama Administration is in its second term and voters tend to grow tired of the ruling party. The odds are good that the Republicans will gain the Senate, keep the House, keep their large plurality of Governors and of state legislators.