MT and ND were both very close, and could easily have gone the other way. I think we could have won MT and ND last year by “nationalizing” those elections, i.e., by sending in Paul Ryan to campaign with our candidates.
WI - Tommy Thompson lost, but so did Romney-Ryan. Same thing in quite a few other purple states.
MO - Our candidate wasn’t up to it. Ditto IN.
2014 is a midterm election, with a different turnout model. The Obama Administration is in its second term and voters tend to grow tired of the ruling party. The odds are good that the Republicans will gain the Senate, keep the House, keep their large plurality of Governors and of state legislators.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. They were still loses of seats that should have been GOP pickups.
WI - Tommy Thompson lost, but so did Romney-Ryan. Same thing in quite a few other purple states.
But Scott Walker won. Twice. Wisconsin isn't Massachusetts. Bush came pretty closed to winning it twice and it had been trending more red prior to 2008. Thompson was given a pretty good chance to win. But he didn't.
MO - Our candidate wasn’t up to it. Ditto IN.
I lived through the Akins fiasco. If you can guarantee none of the GOP candidates in 2014 are going to pull similar boneheaded stunts then I'll feel a whole lot better about 2014.
The odds are good that the Republicans will gain the Senate, keep the House, keep their large plurality of Governors and of state legislators.
And I'll repeat; the odds were good for a Senate takeover in 2012 as well. So saying the odds are good in 2014 shouldn't fill people with confidence just yet.