Your basic premise is fatally flawed.
Mathison is an entrenched DEMOCRAT CONGRESSMAN IN UTAH. According to your basic premise, such a thing shouldn’t be possible in Utah.
(BTW, don’t know if it’s still true today, but the mayor of Salt Lake City for years was (is?) not only a Democrat but a Liberal Democrat.)
I don’t think you know what you’re talking about, as it appears you’re lacking a fundamental, factual understanding.
I know a situation just like it. Well after Texas turned Republican, an entrenched Dem named Charlie Stenholm represented a WT district for many, many years. His total time in that office was 36 years. It was the devil getting Stenholm out, but it finally happened. (Now he’s a happy, rich lobbyist in DC, however.)
Based on the results of the last few elections, and the vote totals for Romney in the counties comprising the 4th District, no it shouldn't.
I don’t think you know what you’re talking about, as it appears you’re lacking a fundamental, factual understanding.
Here are some facts. Romney took Utah by close to 50 points. The other three Republican congressmen won their elections by almost 30 points or more. A decent candidate should have taken this one as well. Why reward failure by letting her lose the seat again?