I don’t have all the numbers in front of me now but the 4WMA for initial claims are well below the average for the last 50 years. Most economists use “below 400,000” as positive for job growth and we are significantly below that threshold. We are significantly below the peak of close to 650,000 and also below the peaks (highest initial claims) of the last five cycles.
There is a disconnect with job growth though. Job growth continues to be fairly weak (average about 157,000 NFP improvement per month the last two years.) ill try and run those charts tomorrow.
The other issue is that job growth is completely in line with 1-2% GDP growth which is the environment we are in. Very weak recovery by any standard. There is a recovery though. That’s undeniable.
For some reason or other the fed doesn't have claims stats under 'catagories' and I got to search 'claims'. No matter, we're on the same page (tx for working with me) and the latest 323K is in fact below the 363K avg. of all lvls on line.
It's definitely a sign of recovery. Arguably it may be more of a function of the shrinking workforce--
-- than shrinking unemployment, but even if it's not proof that people are going to work we still have less of a drain on unemployment comp. spending.