For some reason or other the fed doesn't have claims stats under 'catagories' and I got to search 'claims'. No matter, we're on the same page (tx for working with me) and the latest 323K is in fact below the 363K avg. of all lvls on line.
It's definitely a sign of recovery. Arguably it may be more of a function of the shrinking workforce--
-- than shrinking unemployment, but even if it's not proof that people are going to work we still have less of a drain on unemployment comp. spending.
The claims data is under the Population, Employment, & Labor Markets section.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/10
FRED’s search works really well. One of the best I’ve seen.
I’m not sure how shrinking workforce would affect initial claims. Continuing claims for sure as people get discouraged and drop out. Initial would be for people who just lost a job.
There is no doubt that the LFPR is a huge issue. The biggest question is what is driving it. Some of it is likely structural demographics although over 55 LFPR continues to rise. Women dropping out is a driver as male LFPR has been declining since the 40’s. A lot of it situational given the very slow growth in the economy.
The only cure for all of this is a pro-growth environment. I found it funny that SecTreas Lew has made several comments about pro-growth and made one today to Europe. This is the most anti-growth administration in history. Their regulations are crushing business. the gridlocked Congress is casting a fiscal shadow over growth. Now they want to raise taxes. Just sheer stupidity.