Gold’s Death Cross is a buy signal for China

telegraph ^ | February 21st, 2013 | By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

[dennisw]

Gold price has dropped below $1,600 for first time in six months

It is a treacherous moment for gold bugs.

The first whiff of future tightening from the US Federal Reserve has sent bullion into a nose-dive, triggering a much-feared “Death’s Cross” sell signal on gold futures.

Gold has dropped by over $100 an ounce in ten days, touching $1556 this morning. The HUI index of gold mining stocks broke down weeks ago – as so often leading gold itself by a few weeks – and has already crashed to levels last seen in 2009.

Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term forecast to $1,200. Credit Suisse and UBS are bearish.

Citigroup says the great bull market of the last 12 years is over. The “long cycle” has peaked. Economic recovery has yanked away the key support. So long as there are no big “street riots” this year, investors will stop buying precious metals as Armaggedon insurance and rotate instead into stocks that generate income. Such at least is the argument.

This is more of less what the market would look like and feel like if the gold rally really were to fizzle out, leaving behind an army of small investors who joined the party late and face deepening losses for twenty years – as they did from 1981 to 1999.

[dennisw]

I saw this in 1980. It was much easier and got a better price to sell pure silver bars than silver that was only 90% and had to be refined. Like old US silver coinage. Modern silver one ounce coins all seem to be pure silver same as the bars always were.... so you are covered on that

In 1980 the silver and gold buyers were so busy buying jewelry flatware etc that needed refining...the refineries were way way backed up and purchased this silver at a heavy discount

So USA junk silver coins have their pluses in a SHTF situation but there can be a downside if refineries are backed up and I’ll bet there are many fewer refineries (due to EPA regs) than in 1980

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Never thought about them. I’m an old-school, “If it’s not in your hands you ain’t got chit” kind of gal. :)

[jiggyboy]

I think Monday will tell the tale. That’s option expiration, and everybody in the PM world knows that’s a magnet for short-term lows.

In addition, we have the heretofore virtually unknown term “death cross” showing up in every story about gold even though it has happened within the past year or so; those stories have themselves been given long-lasting prominent positions at popular sites like marketwatch.com and finance.yahoo.com, just to mention a few.

Tonight at 5:30 NY time, CNBC will be running a segment on gold titled something like “Why Can’t Gold Get a Move On?” or something like that.

Toss in Cramer recommending gold fifty or sixty bucks higher a couple of days ago, and I’m thinking we’re close to a bottom for gold.

That said, in a better world, never mind the fact that manipulation is the rule not the exception, if the stock market tanks, gold and silver will go down with it, squared, as margin calls &c pile up for S&P bagholders, just like 2008.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

I don’t blame you. Wire-transfer is definitely the way to go if you’re buying MB’s. Best deal, too, by far.

I never do that kind of volume at the LCS. What I leave with fits in my pocket. And since I’m not buying in high volume, shipping costs are more of a factor for my cost average.

[VideoDoctor]

You're telling it like it is.

The question is... how many will listen.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

The dopes that own gold on paper are freaking out and selling off at a record pace. That’s part of the fall in the price these past few weeks. Contrarian that I am, I’m sitting tight and looking for gold at $2K by this time next year. Then I’m going to pay off my farm, write my manifesto and move further up into the hills. Just kidding. Sort of. ;)

Hope they’re buying physical gold or at least stocking up on ammo with those proceeds, LOL!