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Gold’s Death Cross is a buy signal for China
telegraph ^ | February 21st, 2013 | By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 02/22/2013 5:53:48 AM PST by dennisw

Gold price has dropped below $1,600 for first time in six months

It is a treacherous moment for gold bugs.

The first whiff of future tightening from the US Federal Reserve has sent bullion into a nose-dive, triggering a much-feared “Death’s Cross” sell signal on gold futures.

Gold has dropped by over $100 an ounce in ten days, touching $1556 this morning. The HUI index of gold mining stocks broke down weeks ago – as so often leading gold itself by a few weeks – and has already crashed to levels last seen in 2009.

Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term forecast to $1,200. Credit Suisse and UBS are bearish.

Citigroup says the great bull market of the last 12 years is over. The “long cycle” has peaked. Economic recovery has yanked away the key support. So long as there are no big “street riots” this year, investors will stop buying precious metals as Armaggedon insurance and rotate instead into stocks that generate income. Such at least is the argument.

This is more of less what the market would look like and feel like if the gold rally really were to fizzle out, leaving behind an army of small investors who joined the party late and face deepening losses for twenty years – as they did from 1981 to 1999.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: china; economy; gold; inflation; markets; silver

1 posted on 02/22/2013 5:53:53 AM PST by dennisw
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To: chuckles; Diana in Wisconsin; Boogieman; BipolarBob; yldstrk; nodakkid; Aquamarine; BenLurkin; ...

ping


2 posted on 02/22/2013 5:54:45 AM PST by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: dennisw

Don’t panic, Kids! I’ve been in this game for 13+ years, now. My investment has quadrupled in that time, even with gold going down these past few weeks.

Stay the course, and thank me later. If you’ve got some worthless dollars to shed, buy physical gold or siolver if you can find it. :)


3 posted on 02/22/2013 6:29:08 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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‘silver.’ Or ammo, LOL!


4 posted on 02/22/2013 6:31:56 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

I’d say “buy the dip”, but there is no dip, really. No matter how much they beat down the paper price of metals, dealers are responding by jacking premiums.

Silver is still effectively $40 an ounce, and there are LOTS of buyers. Haven’t been buying any gold lately, but I’m sure the same thing holds true there.


5 posted on 02/22/2013 6:43:16 AM PST by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: WhistlingPastTheGraveyard

With the Euro crashing, the US dollar has actually GAINED a penny in value, up to a whopping 75-cents! Go figure.


6 posted on 02/22/2013 6:47:36 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: dennisw

the last “death cross” was in April 2012 and gold fell about 6% from that point before rallying back and the 50 day MA crossed back over the 200 day MA in early October. The upward move from the low after the “death cross” was from $1568 to $1775 or a nice 13.2% return. It took about a month from the death cross to the low.


7 posted on 02/22/2013 7:00:55 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: WhistlingPastTheGraveyard

I haven’t shopped around, but Provident Metals currently metals has 1oz. 2013 Silver Eagles for under $32.00.


8 posted on 02/22/2013 7:14:59 AM PST by Straight8
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

What do you think about gold mining funds? I have a minimum IRA in one and it dipped about 15%...

TIA.


9 posted on 02/22/2013 7:24:33 AM PST by Yehuda
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To: Straight8

Cash price, plus $6 shipping. Using a credit card, add another couple bucks and you’re paying $40 for a BU Eagle.

On eBay, same thing basically. About $40 per coin with free freight.

At a coin shop, you’ll pay around $37 per coin. Close to a 30% premium.

Two years ago, the premium on an ASE was around 10%. Less if you had a friendly dealer.


10 posted on 02/22/2013 7:35:10 AM PST by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: dennisw
Economic recovery has yanked away the key support

WTF? Who in the world believes this BS. It's like reading Pravda during Uncle Joe Stalin's reign.

11 posted on 02/22/2013 7:36:48 AM PST by Count of Monte Fisto (Republicans are to the Democrats as the Generals are to the Harlem Globetrotters)
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To: Yehuda
Your IRA may pay off but be ready for a bumpy ride. I expect the metals to go WAY down, but this is a manipulation to run off the weak and give an opportunity for the insiders to get in cheap. I expect this to happen soon. Hold your physical and you will be rewarded in the end. By ready to buy the dip. Gold at $1000 and silver at $10. Good luck.

I'm NOT an expert and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express, so beware, YMMV.

12 posted on 02/22/2013 7:58:27 AM PST by Wingy
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To: Straight8

APMEX on ebay is very good

how about a 10 ounce silver bar http://stores.ebay.com/APMEX


13 posted on 02/22/2013 8:00:21 AM PST by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: Wingy

Silver at 23 and gold at 1350 is as low as it will get and I think gold won’t even go below 1425


14 posted on 02/22/2013 8:02:24 AM PST by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: Wingy

Thank you.


15 posted on 02/22/2013 8:10:43 AM PST by Yehuda
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To: dennisw

The author is correct.

All of our financial problems that made gold attractive have now been solved and we will return promptly to the great days of the 1960’s.

Gold will become worthless.


16 posted on 02/22/2013 8:18:23 AM PST by old curmudgeon
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To: WhistlingPastTheGraveyard

I don’t feel comfortable carrying a wad of benjamins into a coin shop and then carrying a monster box of ASE’s out of the coin shop. Too many opportunities to get robbed by thugs casing out the coin shop. Even if you CCW, you could still get involved in a shootout. No such worries when I wire the money to Provident and Fedex delivers the coins to my door.


17 posted on 02/22/2013 8:20:04 AM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: old curmudgeon

I certainly hope you are being sarcastic. Otherwise, you obviously don’t read or understand economics or history.


18 posted on 02/22/2013 8:21:54 AM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: dennisw

When the SHTF, coins will be more liquid than bars.


19 posted on 02/22/2013 8:35:42 AM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: dennisw
Silver at 23 and gold at 1350 is as low as it will get and I think gold won’t even go below 1425

I hope that you are right, but I wouldn't be surprised no matter what the figures end up being.

20 posted on 02/22/2013 9:16:05 AM PST by Wingy
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To: SVTCobra03

I saw this in 1980. It was much easier and got a better price to sell pure silver bars than silver that was only 90% and had to be refined. Like old US silver coinage. Modern silver one ounce coins all seem to be pure silver same as the bars always were.... so you are covered on that

In 1980 the silver and gold buyers were so busy buying jewelry flatware etc that needed refining...the refineries were way way backed up and purchased this silver at a heavy discount

So USA junk silver coins have their pluses in a SHTF situation but there can be a downside if refineries are backed up and I’ll bet there are many fewer refineries (due to EPA regs) than in 1980


21 posted on 02/22/2013 9:25:16 AM PST by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: Yehuda

Never thought about them. I’m an old-school, “If it’s not in your hands you ain’t got chit” kind of gal. :)


22 posted on 02/22/2013 10:21:16 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: dennisw

I think Monday will tell the tale. That’s option expiration, and everybody in the PM world knows that’s a magnet for short-term lows.

In addition, we have the heretofore virtually unknown term “death cross” showing up in every story about gold even though it has happened within the past year or so; those stories have themselves been given long-lasting prominent positions at popular sites like marketwatch.com and finance.yahoo.com, just to mention a few.

Tonight at 5:30 NY time, CNBC will be running a segment on gold titled something like “Why Can’t Gold Get a Move On?” or something like that.

Toss in Cramer recommending gold fifty or sixty bucks higher a couple of days ago, and I’m thinking we’re close to a bottom for gold.

That said, in a better world, never mind the fact that manipulation is the rule not the exception, if the stock market tanks, gold and silver will go down with it, squared, as margin calls &c pile up for S&P bagholders, just like 2008.


23 posted on 02/22/2013 11:13:25 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: SVTCobra03

I don’t blame you. Wire-transfer is definitely the way to go if you’re buying MB’s. Best deal, too, by far.

I never do that kind of volume at the LCS. What I leave with fits in my pocket. And since I’m not buying in high volume, shipping costs are more of a factor for my cost average.


24 posted on 02/22/2013 6:22:13 PM PST by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard (Some men just want to watch the world burn.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
You're telling it like it is.

The question is... how many will listen.

25 posted on 02/22/2013 6:39:43 PM PST by VideoDoctor
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To: VideoDoctor; All

The dopes that own gold on paper are freaking out and selling off at a record pace. That’s part of the fall in the price these past few weeks. Contrarian that I am, I’m sitting tight and looking for gold at $2K by this time next year. Then I’m going to pay off my farm, write my manifesto and move further up into the hills. Just kidding. Sort of. ;)

Hope they’re buying physical gold or at least stocking up on ammo with those proceeds, LOL!


26 posted on 02/23/2013 6:48:02 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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